Since we've just called out a lengthy blog post hosted by Judith Curry that uses scientific uncertainty to make a case against climate action, it seems only fitting to now to discuss the flip side of that coin. The upcoming issue of the UK Royal Society's "Philosophical Transactions A" is dedicated to the concept of uncertainty. However, the peer-reviewed journal comes to a conclusion very different from Curry: Uncertainty is a reason to act.
The issue provides ample justification for this conclusion with ten different articles on various aspects of uncertainty—covering physical, economic and social sciences. The (open access) introduction argues, based on the articles, that uncertainty "should empower decision-makers to take mitigative action and to support greater cuts to greenhouse gas emissions."
Because climate change is much more likely to result in severely negative consequences (despite what some falsely claim), uncertainty doesn't play to our favor and only increases the risks we face. When it comes to climate change, we get to choose whether we’ll take a course of action that makes impacts slightly less bad than they might otherwise be or continue with business as usually. Curry assumes, however, that we’re choosing between good or bad impacts. It's true that we can't predict with absolute certainty what the future will bring, but we know enough to see that the risks rise in situations of scientific uncertainty.
So while political pundits and voices of inaction will probably continue to claim that only absolute certainty can justify measures to decrease fossil fuel use in blogs and opinion pages, an entire issue of a peer-reviewed journal begs to differ.
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