Republican gubernatorial candidate David Vitter
Voters in Louisiana go to the polls Saturday for the state's one-of-a-kind jungle primary. Under Pelican State law, all candidates run on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries; in contests where no one takes more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two vote-getters will advance to the Nov. 21 runoff. We'll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos Elections starting at 9:00 PM ET on Saturday night when polls close.
• LA-Gov: Four major candidates are facing off for the two runoff spots. As the only notable Democrat in the race, there's little doubt that state Rep. John Bel Edwards will advance, but three Republicans are competing to join him. Almost every released poll shows Sen. David Vitter easily outpacing both Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle for the critical second place spot.
Still, the campaign has been particularly brutal for Vitter, who has faced renewed attacks over his 2007 prostitution scandal, a debacle he probably once thought was safely behind him. Still, Vitter and his allies have far more money available than Angelle and Dardenne, and he's been hitting them back in ad after ad. And while there's a significant number of Republicans who don't want to see Vitter as their nominee, Angelle and Dardenne appear to be splitting this bloc too much to allow either of them to deny Vitter a shot at advancing.
However, on Oct. 18, New Orleans-based investigative reporter Jason Berry published an interview with Wendy Ellis, a former prostitute who alleged that in 2000, she became pregnant with Vitter's baby and that he exhorted her to abort it. But Ellis's claims are so far uncorroborated, and what little polling we've seen since her story broke suggests it hasn't damaged Vitter nearly enough to keep him from the runoff.
And that's exactly what Democrats would like. Recent polls show that the campaign has left Vitter with horrible favorable ratings, which would give Edwards an outside shot at beating him. (Angelle and Dardenne, by contrast, are still relatively popular.) However, Vitter's backers have only just begun to tie Edwards to President Obama, who is deeply unpopular in this conservative state. It will be up to Edwards to prove that he can do what so many red state Democrats haven't been able to do and hold on once the GOP inevitably nationalizes this contest.
Head below the fold for more.
• LA-LG: This contest also features three Republicans and one Democrat competing for the two runoff spots. There's little doubt that Democrat Kip Holden, the mayor-president of East Baton Rouge Parish, will advance. However, polls show a close race between Jefferson Parish President John Young and former Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser for second place.
Young is well-known in the populous New Orleans area, and he has spent more than Nungesser. However, Nungesser, who ran for this seat in 2011, made a name for himself during the 2010 BP oil spill when he voiced the frustration many were feeling along the Gulf Coast, and he still has a base of support in coastal Louisiana. A third Republican, state Sen. Elbert Guillory, is also running, but while the GOP was delighted when Guillory switched parties in 2013 and became the first African-American Republican to serve in the legislature since Reconstruction, he has raised very little money. Either Young or Nungesser will be heavily favored in a runoff with Holden, who has also brought in minimal cash.
• LA-AG: Incumbent Buddy Caldwell had an easy race after he left the Democrats to join the GOP in 2011, but he's in real danger this year. Ex-Rep. Jeff Landry has been outraising Caldwell, and he's been winning support from high-profile Republican politicians and groups. While the Louisiana Republican Party has welcomed plenty of former Democrats into their ranks, Caldwell never spent much time trying to win over his new party's support. Two little-known Democrats and one other Republican are running, and there's a very good chance that Caldwell and Landry will both advance to November.
Other Races:
• LA State Senate: There's no doubt that the GOP will easily keep control of the state House and Senate, but a couple of Senate contests are worth watching. In the Monroe area's SD-33, former Rep. Vance McAllister is challenging state Sen. Mike Walsworth, a fellow Republican. McAllister's once-promising congressional career collapsed last year after he was caught on camera kissing a female staffer who was not his wife. McAllister, after initially saying he wouldn't seek re-election, decided to stick it out anyway but ended up taking a distant fourth place. There are no other candidates, so one candidate will take a majority and win outright Saturday.
Over in SD-12, Democrat Mickey Murphy is trying to hold onto a conservative seat that has been blue for a long time. Murphy, a former drill sergeant, grabbed plenty of attention when he released this awesome introductory ad, in which he fantasized about forcing Gov. Bobby Jindal to do pushups (if you haven't seen it yet, watch it!). Murphy faces two Republicans and an independent, so this could go to a runoff.
• Jefferson Parish President: The contest to run the state's second largest parish (that's Louisiana for "county") has largely revolved around one candidate's last name. Kenner Mayor Mike Yenni was born Michael Maunoir, but he took his mother's maiden name after his parents divorced in 1998, when Yenni was in his early 20s. But Yenni's critics have long argued that Yenni made his choice to take advantage of his mother's family name: His grandfather, Joe Yenni, was parish president in the 1980s, and the candidate's late uncle, Michael J. Yenni, also served in that role. Parish Councilman Elton Lagasse, a fellow Republican, is airing ads accusing Yenni of changing his name so he'd benefit politically. There are a few minor candidates running, so this could go to a runoff.
• Caddo Parish District Attorney: The race to become the top lawyer in Caddo Parish, which is home to Shreveport (the state's third-biggest city), has attracted national attention. Caddo executes more people per capita than anywhere else in the country, and the case of Glen Ford, an African American who served 30 years in solitary confinement before being declared innocent and dying soon thereaafter, has come to epitomize the parish's sorry state of affairs. Billionaire George Soros has sent $256,000 to a super PAC supporting Democrat James Stewart, a former judge. Stewart will face five opponents, so a runoff looks likely.