Kentucky Democrat Jack Conway
Leading Off:
• KY-Gov: SurveyUSA returns for one last look at the Nov. 3 general, and they find that Democrat Jack Conway holds a 45-40 lead over Republican Matt Bevin; left-leaning independent Drew Curtis takes 6. Democrats have been dramatically outspending the GOP here, and it seems to be having some effect. While Conway's 36-32 favorable rating isn't spectacular, it's better than Bevin's underwater 32-38 score.
One month ago, SurveyUSA gave Conway a similar 42-37 edge. Only a few other polls have been released here, and they've all found Conway ahead from anywhere between 2 and 5 points: Even Bevin's own poll showed the Democrat ahead 44-41. The GOP isn't giving up here though. The RGA is out with three separate ads as part of their overall $2.5 million investment for the final two weeks of the race. Shockingly, all three spots tie Conway to Obama. Bevin also has a new commercial that does the same thing, and even stars an actor playing Conway.
In the Bevin ad, "Conway" repeatedly tells Siri he supports various Obama policies, and Siri tells him he's a liberal. Bevin deserves some points for trying to find a creative way to convey the usual "red state Democrat is an Obama clone!" messaging. But he loses them by beating the joke into the ground and having his Conway talk in a way no one ever talks outside of whatever universe campaign commercials are set in. When was the last time you thought to ask Siri "I supported Obama's job killing cap and trade bill, but Kentucky doesn't like it"? (I asked Siri that very question, and all she did was bring up some Bing searches.)
Democrats have reason to feel good about Tuesday, but a Bevin win is far from out of the question. We've seen plenty of polling errors over the last few years, and it wouldn't take much to turn a small Conway lead into a dead heat. We're also relying on a very small number of polls, so only a few groups are defining this contest. The RGA's multi-million dollar return to Kentucky after a three-week absence may also be a sign that Team Red has numbers showing this contest still very winnable for Bevin. Still, you'd always rather be the side hoping all the polls are right than the side hoping all the polls are wrong.
Senate:
• OH-Sen: We watch the boring ads so you don't have to. One Nation, Karl Rove's newest front group, has released their spot praising GOP Sen. Rob Portman on jobs. The ad is part of a $1.1 million buy.
• PA-Sen: In June, Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid sounded ready to bury the hatchet with 2010 nominee Joe Sestak. Reid met with Sestak's team and, according to Politico, told them that if the candidate hired more staff and put more effort into his fundraising, national Democrats "would seriously consider throwing its weight behind him." Well, so much for that.
Reid predicted to Roll Call that Katie McGinty would win the primary, and he added that "Sestak has been an unproductive candidate for us." It's unclear if Reid changed his mind because McGinty got into the race or if just Sestak didn't make the improvements he needed to make to his campaign, but there's no doubt who national Democrats want as their nominee against Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.
Gubernatorial:
• ND-Gov: With the exception of state Rep. Rick Becker, no Republicans have kicked off their bids for this open seat, but a few are giving us some hints about when they'll decide. Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, who would likely start out as the frontrunner, says he'll announce his 2016 plans before Thanksgiving.
Rich guy Doug Burgum says he'll decide around January, and he insists that Stenehjem's decision won't impact him. Burgum also reaffirmed that it's "still an open question" if he'll run as an independent instead. State Treasurer Kelly Schmidt says she'll decide in the next few weeks. State Sen. Tom Campbell, who formed an exploratory committee last month, will announce his intentions within the next two to five weeks.
Democrats don't have a viable candidate for this post, and it doesn't sound like they'll be getting one anytime soon. Clay Jenkinson, whom the Grand Forks Herald's Mike Nowatzki describes as a "Bismarck author, scholar and Thomas Jefferson impersonator," says that the state Democratic Party contacted him about a possible run. Jenkinson, whose political experience reportedly ended after his stint as high school student council president, is also an independent who is "actually much more conservative than the party is at this point." Jenkinson didn't quite say no, though he (probably accurately) noted that he must be very far down on the state party's list of preferred candidates.
• WV-Gov: Democratic coal billionaire Jim Justice's new spot features him and several other West Virginians touting how he's using coal to bring jobs to the state.
House:
• CA-17: While a number of influential California Democrats have endorsed Ro Khanna over Rep. Mike Honda after remaining neutral during their 2014 intra-party fight, Honda still has the support of his local colleagues. Honda recently unveiled endorsements from six Northern California House members, including House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, as well as state party chair John Burton.
• FL-10: About two months ago, Politico reported that former state Democratic Party Chairman Bob Poe, who served as Charlie Crist's campaign treasurer during last year's gubernatorial race, was eyeing this seat. Poe confirmed for the first time that he is considering a campaign, and two Democratic donors tell SaintPetersBlog's Peter Schorsch that Poe says he's likely to announce in January that he's running. They also relay that Poe is ready to self-fund half his bid. Schorsch says that Poe has plenty of national contacts, so he could raise plenty of money from donors.
If Poe runs, he'll join 2012 nominee Val Demings and state Sen. Geraldine Thompson in the Democratic primary; ex-state Sen. Gary Siplin is also reportedly interested, and Rep. Corrine Brown hasn't exactly ruled out running here instead of in the Jacksonville-area 5th. While most of the current or potential candidates are black, Poe is white. The primary electorate here is predominantly African American and Hispanic, but Poe could get through if things go right for him.
• FL-24: Former Miami Dolphins player Randal Hill kicked off a primary challenge against Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson in July, but he only raised $48,000 during his inaugural quarter. Wilson herself only hauled in $60,000 during the last three months, but she holds a $297,000 to $4,000 cash on hand lead. Wilson hasn't done much to anger her constituents in this safely blue Miami-area seat, and it's tough to see Hill winning without a lot more resources.
• IA-03: The good news for Democrats is that freshman Republican David Young is no Tom Latham. Young's predecessor was all but impossible to unseat, but Young brought in only $203,000 during the last quarter, not a massive amount for an incumbent in what will be a heavily target race.
Veteran and 2014 4th District nominee Jim Mowrer is running in this swing district, and he raised a similar $183,000. Young leads Mowrer $405,000 to $173,000 in cash on hand, which isn't an insane gap at all. Mowrer brought in plenty of dough when he was running against the obnoxious Steve King last year, but while Young is much more vulnerable, he simply doesn't inspire Democratic donors the same way King does.
The other Democratic candidate, Desmund Adams, only hauled in $23,000 during the last three months. Ex-Gov. Chet Culver hasn't ruled out a bid against Young, and he's unpredictable enough that no one seems to know what he's planning.
• MD-04: 2014 gubernatorial nominee Anthony Brown raised a weak $122,000 from April to June, and his $180,000 haul this quarter still isn't great. Still, Brown actually outraised all his Democratic primary opponents.
However, ex-Prince Georges' County States Attorney Glenn Ivey, who looks like Brown's main rival, leads the field with $391,000 on hand. Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk has $301,000 available, while Brown leads Del. Dereck Davis $253,000 to $206,000 in the bank; former County Councilor Ingrid Turner brings up the rear with $135,000 on hand. When Brown announced his House bid, plenty of Democrats were skeptical he could win the primary after his embarrassing loss last year, and his initially weak fundraising seemed to only reinforce that impression. We'll need to see if Brown's improved haul is a sign that he's turning things around.
• ME-02: After two pretty meh fundraising quarters, Democrat Emily Cain kicked things up a notch. Cain raised $205,000 over the last three months, a bit better than her $152,000 haul last time. Cain faces an intra-party challenge from Bangor Councilor Joe Baldacci, the brother of former Gov. John Baldacci, but he only brought in $92,000. Freshman Republican Bruce Poliquin continues to be a fundraising all-star though; Poliquin raised $402,000, and he has $1,299,000 in the bank to Cain's $368,000 and Baldacci's $79,000. Obama won this rural seat 53-44, but Poliquin has been trying to cultivate the moderate Republican image that Maine loves.
• NH-01: GOP state Rep. Pam Tucker has been mentioned as a possible primary challenger against scandal-tarred Rep. Frank Guinta for a long time, and she just formed an exploratory committee. While most of New Hampshire's 400 state representatives are little more than Some Dudes with fancy titles, Tucker is a bit more notable. Tucker served as deputy speaker under Bill O'Brien, and she has connections to conservative activists.
Businessman and 2014 candidate Dan Innis is preparing for a bid, and a Tucker campaign would probably be bad news for him. Powerful Republicans don't want Guinta serving as their standard bearer in this swing district, but Tucker and Innis could split the anti-Guinta vote enough to secure him renomination.
• PA-16: Republican Rep. Joe Pitts will be 77 next year, and it wouldn't be a shock if he retired. Pitts says he'll announce his 2016 plans after Nov. 3, and Lancaster County Commissioner Scott Martin says he'd consider running to succeed Pitts. Romney won this seat 52-46, so a Democratic pickup isn't impossible if Pitts leaves.
Mayoral:
• Sacramento, CA Mayor: On Tuesday, former state Senate leader Darrell Steinberg announced that he would run for this open seat. Steinberg will face Councilor Angelique Ashby, an ally of outgoing Mayor Kevin Johnson, in what's likely to be an expensive race. It's unclear if any other major candidates will get in: Ex-Assemblyman Roger Dickinson talked about running when Johnson retired but he's endorsing Steinberg instead, and no other big names have expressed interest yet.
Other Races:
• KY Downballot: Both Western Kentucky University and SurveyUSA take a look at Kentucky's downballot statewide contests and while they agree on who is winning each race, they vary quite a bit on some of the margins.
The attorney general contest between Democrat Andy Beshear and Republican Whitney Westerfield has attracted millions in national spending, but both groups give Team Blue the lead. WKU has Beshear up 42-36, while SurveyUSA gives him a gaudy 47-35. SurveyUSA's late September poll found this race tied, though huge swings are plausible in races where few voters are paying much attention.
Team Blue also got some good news in the state auditor's race, a contest that could have long-term implications. WKU gives Democratic incumbent Adam Edelen a 40-35 lead over Mike Harmon, while SurveyUSA has Edelen up 42-34. Edelen is reportedly interested in challenging Sen. Rand Paul next year, and the GOP is worried that Paul's dual campaign for president and for the Senate is endangering what should be a safely red seat. A high-profile Senate race even against a distracted opponent would be far more difficult than the auditor's race, but Edelen would give Democrats a viable candidate just in case Paul has really put his seat in jeopardy.
In the secretary of state's contest, WKU has Democratic incumbent Alison Grimes leading Mike Knipper 46-35; SurveyUSA has her up 50-37. The other two races are going much better for the GOP. WKU has Team Red leading 37-32 for treasurer and 37-30 for agriculture commissioner; SurveyUSA gives the GOP 37-35 and 40-33 edges respectively.
• MS-AG: There's only one statewide Democrat left in the Deep South, and Attorney General Jim Hood may keep that distinction past Tuesday. A new Mason-Dixon poll gives Hood a 50-44 lead against Republican Mike Hurst; they found Hood with a much larger 55-40 edge in May. It's a good sign that Hood has a decent edge with less than a week to go, but in a year where the GOP is set to easily sweep everything else (the poll gives GOP Gov. Phil Bryant a 66-28 lead), Hood can take absolutely nothing for granted.
Grab Bag:
• WATN?: On Wednesday, former House Speaker Denny Hastert, a Republican from Illinois, pleaded guilty to one count of illegally structuring cash transactions so as to avoid federal reporting requirements—part of a scheme, federal prosecutors charged, to pay $3.5 million to an unnamed "Individual A" Hastert had allegedly wronged. A second charge of lying to federal investigators was dropped. Sentencing guidelines recommend a prison term of up to six months, though the judge presiding over the case could put Hastert away for up to five years.
Prosecutors never confirmed on the record what "prior misconduct" Hastert was allegedly hoping to conceal (or atone for) with his cash payments, which ultimately totaled almost $1 million before he was caught. However, unnamed sources who were apparently close to the investigation revealed that Individual A had accused Hastert of molesting him when Hastert was a high school teacher and wrestling coach in the 1970s. Individual A was never charged with extortion, apparently at the discretion of prosecutors, who may have viewed Individual A as the greater victim. Hastert will be sentenced on Feb. 29.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.