Would you sign on an agreement, which would lead to extinction of your country?
Ministers from small islands and poor and vulnerable countries will arrive in Paris to attend the UN climate summit in a few weeks. They will face some harsh negotiations. Most likely, they will have to consider carefully if they should sign an agreement, because if implemented, it could have devastating effects on their own countries.
Climate change is a true challenge for us all, but the real effects differ a lot. Some communities or entire countries risk losing their land due to the exposure to climate change related effects, such as sea level rise. Other countries face conflicts, hunger and migration due to lack of a coping capacity when hurricanes, droughts and floods clash with livelihoods of poor and vulnerable people.
The climate summit in Paris is an important meeting. For the first time, governments are committed to adopt a global agreement with commitments for all to combat global warming and related effects. All countries have been asked to submit their climate targets ahead of the summit. This means that the level of ambition already is set, when the parties arrive in Paris. This is bad news for the most vulnerable countries.
An analysis by the UN climate body, UNFCCC, of the current national targets, indicates that global temperature will rise to 2.7 degrees Celsius, above 1990 levels. It may not sound like a big difference but science shows that even a global temperature increase above 1.5 degree may have drastic effects. This will be difficult to handle for countries with low coping capacity or extreme exposure to the effects of climate change.
So, why should these countries sign on to the Paris agreement?
Luckily, there is still a ray of hope, also for the most vulnerable countries. Even if the national targets are submitted, the summit should agree on a framework for the cooperation. If this framework includes strong mechanisms and incentives to intensify the ambitions in the years to come, global ambition can go up with a likely drop in the expected increase in global temperature.
The summit in Paris should also deliver agreement about support and assistance to those most in need. If poor and vulnerable countries get support, they will increase their coping capacity, and if their possible losses and damages are acknowledged it will be easier to move forward with resettlement and continued development.
Three of the most difficult issues to solve in Paris are how to ratchet up ambition, how to mobilize climate finance, and how to deal with loss and damage due to climate change. If these issues are addressed with strong commitment to take action, Paris may still become a success.
If you want to learn more about loss and damage, due to climate change, I recommend a recent report by the ACT Alliance - Climate related loss and damage, finding a just solution to the political challanges