If you haven’t read this short blog Reality Check by Robert Reich where he quotes his Republican friend as saying of the GOP candidates:
“They’re bonkers. Bizarre. They’re like a Star Wars bar room.”
…you should do so. But though one (or two) of the candidates may indeed be bonkers, and almost all have evinced a measure of bonkery at some point, most of them are not. In an environment where craziness is rewarded, it is entirely predictable that craziness will be resorted to, or at least feigned.
Many mainstream political pundits have suddenly decided that the GOP race for the nomination is “so unexpected, completely unpredictable! Who’d have guessed Trump would still be at the top of the polls in mid-November? And Carson, another outsider? It’s all just too much to predict!”
In other words, their predictions have been consistently wrong for the past several months, so obviously what has happened is unpredictable! But that’s simply not true. It’s just that they have refused to accept the essence of the current Republican Party.
- Irrationality rarely leads to completely random actions – there is almost always “method” in madness.
- Many of the GOP candidates (Trump, Rubio, Jeb, Cruz) are not crazy at all – they are merely trying to exploit the craziness of the base to their advantage. Thus their arithmetic-free tax plans, anti-minimum wage rhetoric and anti-ISIS grandstanding are nothing more than cynical tactics to game the process. And Trump has been the most successful thus far.
There are certain things about the Republican electorate that such pundits are simply not allowed to recognize. These they have had to excise from their calculations when pontificating. Below the now invisible squiggle are some of the hard truths about the GOP which, when taken into account, made the current scene much more predictable and also permit a vision of what might happen next.
- As mentioned above, a large portion of the GOP base is bonkers.
They are angry, hate-filled, and fearful, seeking a violent catharsis if their entitled worldview and pet hatreds aren’t satisfied. Rubio, Jeb, Graham, Walker, Perry and all the other political professionals will not sate their nihilism. Just because the “lamestream media” says that supporting Trump, Carson and Fiorina is crazy is reason enough for them to do it. (And Trump, at least understands this motivation and has played to it!)
- But although they’re crazy, that doesn’t mean they’re stupid and will vote against their primary self-interests.
No, their primary self-interests doesn’t mean getting a raise at their minimum wage jobs, or getting health insurance for their kids, or stopping hedge fund managers from get tax breaks, banks from destroying the economy, and oil companies from turning farms into dust bowls. It means making damn sure them people is worse off than I am! That’s the only reason to get up in the morning! And insofar as that entitlement erodes, all that’s left is alcoholism, drug addiction and suicide. (And no, the pundits aren’t ever going to say this, even though it’s absolutely true!)
- Ben Carson’s recent polls notwithstanding, the GOP base continues to be virulently racist.
Anyone who thinks that Carson has ever had even the slightest prayer of getting the GOP nomination is as detached from reality as he is! Yes, there are Republicans who are not racist. Maybe as much as 40% of the base might, when asked, say that they support him. But that number will be halved in the voting booth if they ever really think he has a chance of actually winning the nomination. With the GOP base, the controversial “Bradley effect” would definitely come into play. (And, not that it’s important, but it would also preclude Jindal’s winning, even if he did have a prayer – which he doesn’t.)
- The GOP base is also misogynistic, anti-Mexican and homophobic.
- The misogyny eliminates Fiorina. Sarah Palin was liked because she was “cute”, she was chosen rather than voted in, and she was the V.P. candidate only. Fiorina is not cute, and will require votes. She may be chosen as the Veep candidate (that’s why she’s running), but has no chance for the top of the ticket.
- Rubio and Cruz are Cuban, which the base regards as better than Mexican (or Guatemalan, Dominican or Puerto Rican, for that matter). That said, this is a distinction of which many in the base will be unaware. Look for both Rubio and Cruz to underscore their “Cuban-ness” – but will it be enough? Maybe – but their Hispanic names will be a disadvantage. And Rubio’s support of an immigration compromise will absolutely haunt him.
- As for homophobia, a significant portion of the base thinks that one of the candidates is a closeted gay. I am convinced that this is a big part of why this person has been unable to rise above the “zero lower bound.” Reality is less important than rumor to bigots.
The other candidates – Jeb (last name and too “low energy”), Christie (hugged Obama), Kasich (too “liberal”), Paul (not imperialistic enough) and the rest of the clowns have no chance.
To paraphrase Sherlock Holmes: “When you have eliminated all those candidates who are impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” That leaves one:
Trump.
So where does all this lead? Here are my predictions for the future:
Ever since the leadup to the 2012 election, I have been predicting that 2016 would be the year (like 1912) of the Republican Party's Great Schism. Via the above process of elimination, I believe that Trump will get the nomination.
The GOP base has clearly staked out its anti-politician stand, with 25% even willing to say they support a black man rather than the party establishment. As Carson (slowly!) implodes, these folks will move toward Trump and perhaps Huckabee (but Huck will never have enough overall support). Rubio will get the establishment support but not the base because of being perceived as “soft on immigration”, and Cruz will get some of the base but none of the establishment. The Donald Steamroller will be very hard to stop. And a “brokered convention” that deprives Donald of the nomination would cause one version of the Great Schism.
But I don’t think it will be a brokered convention. I believe that the big winner-take-all states like Florida will be enough to put Trump over the top. And in this scenario, knowing that Trump is unelectable and will do great damage downticket, it will be the GOP establishment that will ultimately “bolt”, coalescing into a new right-of-center party with possibly Bush, Rubio, Christie, Graham or even Mitt as its standard bearer and Webb or Bayh or other Blue Dog/Third Way rounding out the ticket.
Barring some kind of recession/panic next year, the Dems, probably Clinton, will win the presidency comfortably in 2016. And I hope that her coattails (or Bernie’s) will be long enough to take back both Houses against the divided opposition. The GOP base will howl and maybe there will even be some social unrest and violence from those who will feel disenfranchised. But they will eventually fade into history.
For the more distant future, the ground will have been laid for a new centrist party coalescing around the more centrist (or right-of-center) GOPers: perhaps moderates like Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker (who has NO hope of furthering any ambitions for higher office in the current GOP) and centrist Democrats.
Such a centrist party (which may start calling itself the Republican Party again) would never get my vote -- but at least it would be less dangerous and probably less obstructionist than the current crazies. It also could be quite strong by 2020 (an important election year in terms of redistricting).