Louisiana goes to the polls on Saturday, and the suspenseful gubernatorial runoff contest takes center stage. Also on the ballot are races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, and a handful of legislative seats. Polls close at 9 PM ET, and we’ll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos Elections.
A few months ago, it looked like Republican Sen. David Vitter would have an easy path to victory against Democrat John Bel Edwards in the race for governor, but this contest surprised everyone when it turned into a knock-down, drag-out fight. Vitter only narrowly won the Republican nod in last month’s primary after going bitterly negative on his rivals, who in turn revived his seemingly dormant prostitution scandal that first emerged back in 2007. The wounds of the GOP fight have not healed at all: Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne crossed party lines to endorse Edwards, while Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle has remained stubbornly neutral.
Edwards hasn’t been shy about using Vitter’s sordid past to his advantage, either: Edwards ran an instantly classic ad a few weeks ago arguing that Vitter “answered a prostitute's call minutes after he skipped a vote honoring 28 soldiers who gave their lives in defense of our freedom,” thereby choosing “prostitutes over patriots.” Edwards and his allies have also tied Vitter to unpopular outgoing Gov. Bobby Jindal.
As this chart from Democratic consultant Andrew Tuozzolo shows, every single public poll has given Edwards the lead, but this race could still surprise. Earlier this month, polling badly underestimated Republicans across the board in Kentucky, including the governor's race, and the same thing could very well happen here. This contest also got extra ugly in the last week after the terrorist attack in Paris. Vitter immediately exploited the tragedy and argued that Edwards and Obama want to allow Syrian refugees to flood into the state. Edwards’ own views on accepting refugees aren’t any different, but rhetorically he’s been sedate while Vitter’s openly stoked xenophobic panic. There’s a real chance that doing so could give Vitter a critical boost.
Still, we don’t know what the effects are. Four pollsters have released numbers since the Paris attack. The University of New Orleans, in an online-only poll, gives Edwards a crushing 54-34 edge. A survey from Market Research Insight has Edwards up 52-40, while Greg Rigamer also gives Edwards a clear 50-40 edge. However, JMC Analytics has things closer at 49-44 Edwards. We’ll find out on Saturday if Edwards will score a rare win for Democrats in the Deep South, or if Vitter will pull off a surprising victory.