Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news.
● LA-Gov: In a result that would have been unbelievable even two months ago, Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards defeated GOP Sen. David Vitter by a 56-44 margin in Saturday's gubernatorial general election. Vitter subsequently announced that, while he'll serve out the final year of his Senate term, he will not seek re-election in 2016 (see our LA-Sen item below for more). Edwards' win gives Louisiana Democrats their first statewide victory since Mary Landrieu's re-election to the Senate in 2008, and will make him the Deep South's only Democratic governor.
This race was dominated by renewed interest in Vitter's 2007 prostitution scandal and by outgoing Gov. Bobby Jindal's unpopularity. Edwards ran an instantly classic ad a few weeks ago arguing that Vitter "answered a prostitute's call minutes after he skipped a vote honoring 28 soldiers who gave their lives in defense of our freedom," thereby choosing "prostitutes over patriots." Vitter also never recovered from his nasty primary just one month before. While Vitter's nasty campaign against Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle didn't stop him from winning the GOP nod, neither man showed any interest in burying the hatchet for the senator. Dardenne crossed party lines and endorsed Edwards, while Angelle remained stubbornly neutral.
Vitter and his allies tried to link Edwards to President Obama, who has never been popular in this conservative state. However, while this tactic has worked well in other contests, it just wasn't enough this time. In the final week of the campaign, Vitter sought to exploit the recent terrorist attack in Paris. Vitter immediately ran an ad arguing that Edwards and Obama wanted to allow Syrian refugees to flood into the state. Edwards' own views on accepting refugees weren't any different, but rhetorically he was sedate while Vitter openly stoked xenophobic panic. In any case, Vitter's desperate move didn't come close to saving his campaign.
Earlier this month, polling badly underestimated Republicans across the board in Kentucky, including in the governor's race, and Democrats feared the same thing would happen in Louisiana. However, four pollsters released results in the final days of the campaign, and all four correctly showed Edwards winning. Credit especially goes to Market Research Insight, who nailed Edwards' 12-point margin, and was also the only pollster to show Vitter barely winning last month's primary. BDPC was also close, giving Edwards a 10-point edge. JMC Analytics and the University of New Orleans were a bit further off the fairway: JMC's final poll had Edwards up just 5 points, while UNO gave him a 20-point edge.
● LA-Sen: Following his defeat in Saturday's gubernatorial election, Republican Sen. David Vitter announced that he would not seek re-election to the Senate next year. There are no shortage of Louisiana Republicans who could run here, and it may be a little while before we have a good idea of the field. The jungle primary will be held in November and, assuming no one takes a majority, the top two finishers, regardless of party, will advance to a December runoff.
Rep. John Fleming, who represents a Shreveport-area seat, has amassed a $2,323,000 warchest over the past few months, and the wealthy congressman is capable of self-funding more. Rep. Charles Boustany has also been raising money at a breakneck pace over the past few months, and the Lafayette-area representative has $1,458,000 on hand. Both congressmen hoped that, if Vitter became governor, he would appoint them to his Senate seat. Either man may change his calculations now that he'd actually need to sacrifice his House seat for an uncertain run for the Senate though.
A few other Republicans have been making noises about getting in over the last few months. Treasurer John Kennedy spent $1 million on his uncompetitive re-election campaign last month in order to boost his name recognition ahead of a possible Senate bid. Unlike Boustany and Fleming, Kennedy wouldn't need to give up his post to run next year. If Kennedy jumps in, this will be his third Senate bid: Kennedy ran as a Democrat in 2004 and took third-place in the jungle primary, and he was Team Red's nominee against Mary Landrieu in 2008. Tea partier Rob Maness, a retired colonel who took 14 percent in last year's jungle primary for the Senate, has also expressed interest in the past.
One more intriguing option is Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, who narrowly lost the GOP nod to Vitter last month. Angelle's allies said earlier this month that he could run, though he might seek Boustany's House seat if it opens up instead. Angelle pointedly refused to endorse Vitter during the general election, which could cause him problems. However, given how many normally Republican voters turned against Vitter on Saturday, maybe Angelle's distance from the departing senator could be an asset. Roll Call also says that Louisiana Republicans are mentioning Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne as a possible contender. Dardenne backed Democrat John Bel Edwards over Vitter, which enraged influential Republicans and could make it very difficult for him to raise money for a future bid.
It won't be easy for Louisiana Democrats to flip this seat without the toxic Vitter on the ballot, but Saturday's result will likely encourage Democratic politicians to at least take a look here. New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, the brother of ex-Sen. Mary Landrieu, didn't rule out a run earlier this month. Besides Edwards, Mitch Landrieu is the most prominent Democrat in the state, though he's far more liberal than the governor-elect.
● LA-LG, AG: Louisianans also picked the winners for two other statewide offices on Saturday. In the lieutenant governor's contest, Republican Billy Nungesser defeated Democrat Kip Holden 55-45. Nungesser had none of David Vitter's considerable baggage while Holden never raised much money, so the result was hardly a surprise.
In the all-GOP attorney general race, ex-Rep. Jeff Landry unseated incumbent Buddy Caldwell 56-44. Caldwell had only joined the GOP in 2011 and while Louisiana Republicans usually welcome new recruits, Caldwell never took the time to make connections in his new party. The GOP establishment ended up enthusiastically backing Landry, whose GOP bona fides were never in question. Landry ran a more energetic campaign and, despite his tea partying reputation, he appears to have won a significant number of Democratic voters.
Monday, Nov 23, 2015 · 8:29:35 PM +00:00 · David Nir
Census: We're already just about halfway through the decade (hard to believe, I know), which means that we'll soon be closer to the 2020's census than 2010's. It's therefore not completely crazy to start looking at how the next round of congressional reapportionment might shake out, which is exactly what David Beard has done in this new post. He also goes a step further to ask how reapportionment might impact redistricting. For instance, can Republicans in Ohio, which is likely to lose a seat, really target another Democrat? Or would they once again prefer to make one of their own walk the plan to protect the rest of the GOP delegation? (If they're smart, they'll choose door number two.) Click through for a complete state-by-state roundup.
Monday, Nov 23, 2015 · 8:46:09 PM +00:00 · David Nir
KY-06: Sports radio host Matt Jones, who'd been considering a congressional bid since August and had even been recruited by the DCCC, has decided not to run against sophomore GOP Rep. Andy Barr. Jones would have faced a difficult challenge in this district, which Mitt Romney won by a 56-42 margin, though he did suggest he might still seek public office at some point in the future.
Monday, Nov 23, 2015 · 9:21:02 PM +00:00 · David Nir
MD-Sen: A new poll from OpinionWorks for the University of Baltimore and the Baltimore Sun finds Rep. Chris Van Hollen beating fellow Rep. Donna Edwards 45-31 in the Democratic primary for Senate, making this the first survey to show Van Hollen with a lead. Earlier polls had put Edwards on top, but as we noted previously, Van Hollen's large cash advantage would allow him to make up the gap once he started spending—and indeed he has.
Van Hollen has been airing introductory TV ads in the Baltimore market, where neither candidate is well-known, in an effort to boos his name recognition. While he probably hasn't spent all that much yet, in a race with a lot of undecideds, it's often not hard to move the needle. Edwards, meanwhile, has only a fraction of the cash and hasn't gone on the air yet. However, should Rep. Elijah Cummings ever decide to enter the race, he would lead the field, taking 40 percent to 28 for Van Hollen and 19 for Edwards. Cummings has repeatedly delayed his decision date, though, and he's really running out of time, since the primary is in April.
Monday, Nov 23, 2015 · 10:00:19 PM +00:00 · David Nir
MO-Gov: Missouri's raucous GOP primary for next year's open-seat gubernatorial race just got one man smaller, as state Sen. Bob Dixon dropped out of the race on Monday. Dixon had been the only Republican candidate from the southwestern part of the state, but he raised little money and saw his campaign overshadowed by his own claims that he was "ex-gay." Four contenders remain in the race: former U.S. Attorney Catherine Hanaway, ex-Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, wealthy businessman John Brunner, and Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder. All are from the St. Louis area save Kinder, who hails from Cape Girardeau in the southeast. State Attorney General Chris Koster is the only notable Democrat running.
Monday, Nov 23, 2015 · 10:18:08 PM +00:00 · David Nir
MI-13: Democratic Rep. John Conyers, who struggled to make the ballot in 2014 thanks to a petitioning snafu but was rescued by the courts, just confirmed that he will seek a 27th term in the House next year. Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey had previously declared she'd challenge Conyers, but despite his stumble last year, he still easily won the Democratic primary in this safely blue Detroit-based seat, and he'll be difficult to beat this time, too.
Monday, Nov 23, 2015 · 10:32:30 PM +00:00 · David Jarman
Public Opinion: Pew Research’s latest polling magnum opus actually doesn’t contain a whole lot of surprises: the topic is trust in government, and as you can probably guess, not a lot of people on either side of the ledger have much of that right now. It also reveals, as you’d expect, that Republicans have a much more limited view of what government’s role in society is … but, at the same time, a majority of all respondents agree, going through a list of programs, that each of those individual items should involve a major role for government.
What is interesting, though, is that Pew asks a question about politics as team sport, a new kind of question we haven’t seen asked anywhere before. Perhaps unexpectedly, both sides feel like their “side” loses more often than it wins in politics! Democrats do feel that way less than Republicans (only 52 percent, as opposed to 79 percent among the GOP), and liberal Democrats actually feel like they’re “winning” (by a 44 to 42 margin) … which probably doesn’t have to do with them mentally toting up all the congressional and legislative seats they’ve lost in recent years, but rather about the preservation of the policy gains we made in 2009 and 2010, as well as broader cultural and demographic shifts that don’t really have much to do with politics at all. (Which, conversely, is probably also why Republicans feel like they’re losing.)
Monday, Nov 23, 2015 · 10:51:06 PM +00:00
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David Nir
TX-15: We have our first two "ayes" as well as two confirmed "nays" on the Democratic side in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Rubén Hinojosa. Edinburg school board member Sonny Palacios and attorney Vicente Gonzalez both say they're in, while Edinburg City Manager Ramiro Garza and Hidalgo District Clerk Laura Hinojosa (who is the congressman's daughter) are staying out. Palacios says he can at least partly self-fund, but he should have plenty of competition, as many other Democrats are also looking at this seat, which should stay blue in a presidential year. For the GOP, former Rio Grande City Mayor Ruben Villarreal has been running since before Hinojosa announced he was quitting, but he's raised bupkes.
Monday, Nov 23, 2015 · 11:08:17 PM +00:00
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David Nir
MD-08: State Sen. Jamie Raskin has released an internal poll (courtesy GBA Strategies) of the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Chris Van Hollen, giving us our first look at this high-powered race. Raksin, unsurprisingly, leads the way with 30 percent, while former newscaster Kathleen Matthews takes 21, Del. Ana Sol Gutierrez 11, Del. Kumar Barve 5, non-profit exec Dave Anderson 3, former Obama administration official Will Jawando 2, and former State Dept. official Joel Rubin rounds out the field with a goose egg. If you're counting, that leaves just 28 percent undecided, which seems awfully low for a House race this far from primary day.
It does make sense, though, that Raskin and Matthews would be the best-known at this stage. And befitting their higher profiles, they've also each raised quite a bit of money: Matthews has almost $900,000 on hand and Raskin a tick under $700,000. So you can bet that a lot will be spent to decide the nomination, since whoever wins the brass ring will cruise in the general election given how Democratic this seat is.
Monday, Nov 23, 2015 · 11:20:36 PM +00:00
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David Nir
FL-18: Palm Beach County Commissioner Melissa McKinlay announced on Monday that she's dropping out of the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Patrick Murphy, citing the recent entry of wealthy self-funding businessman Randy Perkins. McKinlay may not have been cut out for this contest in the first place, though: She said that she'd been a "full-time Commissioner campaigning part-time" for the last six months, but with Perkins running, she'd have to become "a full-time candidate and a barely-part-time Commissioner."
The problem is that running for Congress is really a full-time job no matter who you are, and in a district like this—one that narrowly voted for Mitt Romney—any Democrat hoping to win here has to be willing and able to run as hard as possible. That's how the indefatigable Murphy upset Allen West back in 2012, after all. Perkins may or may not be the answer, but whoever hopes to be has to be prepared to put everything else aside from now through next November. It may suck, but that's just modern politics.
Monday, Nov 23, 2015 · 11:53:34 PM +00:00
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David Nir
LA-Sen: Now that David Vitter's gone down to a humiliating defeat and announced that he'll skulk out the Senate's trash chute come next year, the race to succeed him is quickly turning into a spicy hot Cajun affair. Two Republican congressman have now both said they're planning "formal announcements" soon: Rep. Charles Boustany and Rep. John Fleming, who've both been jockeying for this seat for some time. Many other big names are also circulating; see our previous Digest for a full run-down.
One additional interesting note in Eli Yokley's writeup is his observation that state Treasurer John Kennedy (another Republican) could "donate" his existing campaign war chest to a super PAC that would then work to help him. Office-holders who've raised money for state campaigns can't transfer that money to a federal account (though the reverse is sometimes possible, depending on state law), but Citizens United has blown a huge loophole in that rule. That would allow Kennedy to deploy his considerable funds (which stood at $2.9 million at the end of September) immediately.