To most Democratic voters, the question of electability is a very important factor in deciding who they would like to nominate for the Democratic ticket. After all, what's the point of nominating a candidate you like if he or she can't win in the General Election? That's a very legitimate question.
Most Democrats see Hillary Clinton as the more electable candidate. They argue that Bernie Sanders is too far to the left to be able to win in the General Election, not to mention his "Democratic Socialist" label in a country where many people are not comfortable with the S word. There are many Democrats who say "I like Bernie, but he's not electable". The Hill reports:
No matter how well you think of Bernie — and all of us do — … when the politics of it all hits the road, I don't feel — and I feel most members don't feel — that he can be elected," said Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.).
This sentiment can also be seen in social media:
To address these concerns, Bernie Sanders campaign released a memo to demonstrate that he is better positioned for the general election than Hillary Clinton - a claim which was disputed. Some argued that head-to-head match-ups favor him over Clinton, while others claim that these match-ups don't mean anything this early in an Election year. So who's right?
For Hillary or Bernie to be considered more electable, they must demonstrate that they can attract more (or alienate fewer) voters than the other candidate. I will analyze this net difference in determining who the most electable candidate is. I would like to note that excitement about a preferred candidate doesn't necessarily diminish the other candidate's electability. For example, if a Bernie supporter is very disappointed that he wasn't nominated for the Democratic ticket, it wouldn't affect Hillary's electability if that person would end up voting for her anyways (and vice versa).
There are four segments to examine: Democrats, Republicans, Independents (or other parties) and non-voters.
For Democrats, the majority would vote for whoever the Democratic candidate is. Some moderates might prefer Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders, but they would still vote for Bernie should he win the nomination to avoid having Trump or another Republican win the White House. While there are some Democrats who argue that they would write in Bernie if he wasn't nominated, I am not convinced that these emotions would last until Election Day – and if they do, I doubt that these votes will be much of a factor. Neither Hillary nor Bernie has an advantage in this segment.
Similarly, most Republicans will vote for the Republican nominee. But in every presidential election, a small percentage of Republicans would vote for the Democratic nominee (and vice versa). In 2008, Obama received as much as 10% of the Republicans vote. I doubt that either Hillary or Bernie would get large Republican support, but Bernie Sanders has a good record of Republican support in his own state. He surprisingly ranks first in Vermont, even among Republicans. He's also seen as authentic and trustworthy which appeal to many Republicans. Hillary Clinton on the other hand is seen very unfavorably – the issues of the email controversy and Benghazi attack only added fuel to the fire. This is not to say that Republicans would vote overwhelmingly for Bernie, especially when he embraces the "democratic socialist" label, but he would perform better than Hillary Clinton among Republicans. In any case, this advantage has minimal impact at best.
Independents and third parties however are a different story. Most Democratic-leaning independents favor Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton. In a McClatchy-Marist national poll, Bernie Sanders leads by 12 points over Hillary among independents, and a Monmouth University Poll in New Hampshire has Bernie leading Hillary by as much as 24 points among Independents. Bernie Sanders is also the longest serving independent Congressman in the history of the US which appeals to many independents and third parties. In key battle states, independents can determine the fate of an election.
A segment that's often overlooked is the non-voters segment. Younger Americans have the lowest voter turnout. It was estimated that as little as 41.2% of young voters aged 18-24 voted in the General Election in 2012.
The 74-year old senator from Vermont overwhelms Hillary Clinton among younger voters. As much as 76% of voters ages 18-29 in Iowa would support Bernie Sanders. It's unquestionable that some younger Bernie Sanders supporters would either stay at home or vote for a different candidate if he's not nominated for the Democratic ticket.
This demonstrates that Bernie Sanders is actually the one who's more electable than Hillary Clinton. There are very few who would not vote for Hillary if Bernie was nominated, but the opposite is true. That's why polls with head-to-head match-ups showing Bernie Sanders performing better than Hillary Clinton are not to be discredited and should be taken seriously.