We are in a world of shit.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels climbed above the 400 parts per million (ppm) at the Mauna Loa Observatory and it’s distinctly possible they won’t be back below that level again in our lifetimes.
Humans have burned enough fossil fuels to drive atmospheric CO2 to levels that world hasn’t seen in at least 400,000 years. That’s driven up temperatures, melted ice and caused oceans to acidify. Some extreme weather events around the world have become more likely and stronger because of it, and some will likely only get worse as the planet continues to warm.
Because CO2 sits in the atmosphere long after it’s burned, that means we’ve likely lived our last week in a sub-400 ppm world. It also means that the reshaping of our planet will continue for decades and centuries to come, even if climate talks in Paris in two weeks are successful.
If anything, those statements are too mealy-mouthed. Things are already much worse than climate scientists expected based on their computer models from only ten years ago. How much worse? Let’s look around, shall we, starting with this example:
A marine alga in the Atlantic Ocean is thriving beyond scientists’ predictions, suggesting that increases in carbon dioxide levels -- thought to be one of the major causes of global warming -- are creating fast environmental changes, scientists at Johns Hopkins University reported. From 1965 to 2010, the level of single-celled coccolithophores has increased tenfold, disproving a previous theory that such organisms would decrease with rising ocean acidity.
Scientists have yet to determine what exactly the increase in this type of phytoplankton means, or if it is a good or a bad thing for the Earth, a news release from the university said. The results do suggest ecosystems are changing at a more rapid rate than previously thought, and the models used to measure the effects of climate change may not be adequate.
Fast environmental changes is an understatement. We are in uncharted territory. We haven’t seen these levels of CO2 for hundreds of thousands of years, and the last time they were this high the oceans were six (6) meters higher than they are today. That’s about twenty (20) feet higher. Just along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard of the United States we are talking of losing massive sections of our coastal landmass, including much of southern Louisiana, Florida, the Carolinas, Virginia, New Jersey, etc., all the way up to Maine. See the graphic below to get some idea of what I’m talking about:
Ninety-nine percent (99%) of New Orleans and Miami gone. A third of Boston and New York City under water. Norfolk, VA — gone. Three quarters of Savannah flooded. And this doesn’t even take into account the action of higher tides, much less the increased risk of storm surges associated with tropical storm systems such as hurricanes.
Speaking of tropical storms, did you know that that this last year saw the most active Pacific Cyclone season in recent memory? At one point in July this last summer, we had six (6) Pacific cyclones at one time. Six.
On Sunday morning [July 12, 2015] with an upgrade to Tropical Storm Dolores, it marked the first time in almost 10 years that there have been at least five simultaneous Pacific tropical cyclones of at least tropical storm strength.
Last week, typhoons Linfa, Chan-hom and Nangka were simultaneously active in the Western Pacific basin. According to National Hurricane Center specialist Eric Blake, Wednesday, July 8, marked the first time there had been three typhoons simultaneously in the western Pacific Ocean since Oct. 24, 1994.
Colorado State University's Phil Klotzbach adds it was the earliest occurrence on record of three concurrent typhoons in the western Pacific, breaking the old record from July 10, 1972.
Blake also tweeted that, along with last week's Tropical Storm Ela, made three central Pacific tropical cyclones this month alone. In the historical record from 1949-2014, only three tropical cyclones had ever formed in that basin in the month of July.
Furthermore, Blake said the previous record interval to see three successive central Pacific tropical storms form at any time of year was 18 days. Ela, Halola and Iune formed in just three days' time.
Indeed, last month saw the strongest Pacific cyclone (Patricia) to make landfall in human history with “maximum sustained winds of 200 mph” (miles per hour). Yes, the El Nino in the Pacific Ocean had a lot to do with the number of tropical storms in the Pacific, but did you know that the current El Nino event is the largest ever recorded?
The current extreme El Niño is now the strongest ever recorded, smashing the previous record from 1997-8. Already wreaking havoc on weather around the world, the new figures mean those effects will probably get worse. Climate change could be to blame and is known to be making the extreme impacts of El Niño on weather more likely.
[...]
A key measure of its intensity is the warmth of water in the central Pacific. In 1997, at its peak on 26 November, it was 2.8 °C above average. According to the latest measurements, it reached 2.8 °C on 4 November this year, and went on to hit 3.1 °C on 18 November – the highest temperatures ever seen in this region.
Again, note the caution in the report that climate change “could be to blame” for this extreme El Nino event. Well, that’s what the reporters at New Scientist wrote. Perhaps their editors are to blame for such an abundance of caution. However, when you read a little further, scientists are ringing their alarm bells over the connection between stronger El Ninos and climate change:
[Axel] Timmerman [University of Hawaii] and others showed in 2013 that El Niños have been stronger in the last few decades than in any period over the past four centuries. It is unknown whether that’s because of climate change, but Timmerman and colleagues have also shown that extreme impacts from El Niño’s will double in frequency this century as a result of climate change.
In similar findings, Scott Power at the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia and colleagues showed that climate change will amplify the way that El Niño redistributes rainfall, making droughts and floods worse.
Speaking of droughts, despite the recent rainfall , no one is particularly sanguine about the ongoing droughts in the Western United States. Quite the contrary. In fact, scientists now say that there is an eighty percent (80%) likelihood of a mega-drought affecting the Southwest and Great Plains lasting up to thirty-five years or longer. They are calling for the implementation of immediate mitigation practices to avoid the worst consequences for the people and other species living there.
Alternative models of watershed protection that balance recreational use and land conservation must no longer be ignored to preserve water supplies against the effects of climate change, argues a new study. [...]
In the American West, unprecedented droughts have caused extreme water shortages. The current drought in California and across the West is entering its fourth year, with precipitation and water storage reaching record low levels. Droughts are ranked second in the US in terms of national weather-related economic impacts, with annual losses just shy of $9 billion. With water scarcity likely to increase due to advancing climate change, the economic and environmental impacts of drought are also likely to get worse.
… "As the West faces more frequent and severe droughts, the successful protection of watersheds for the ecosystem services of water capture, storage, and delivery they provide will be increasingly important."
Yet, despite our knowledge of the certainty of the crisis we face (which includes an ongoing mass extinction event, by the by), Republicans in Congress are doing their best to sabotage any progress in the discussion regarding a climate treaty at the Climate Summit in Paris. Indeed, the Obama administration has refused to agree to a binding formal treaty on climate change, in part because they know approval of any negotiated treaty by the Republican controlled Senate is impossible.
So, once more America’s politicians, and specifically the Republican party that controls Congress, are blocking any and all measures to slow down or ameliorate the consequences of continued emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The effects of global warming caused by the rise of CO2 levels in the Earth’s oceans and atmosphere can no longer be prevented, but we could and should be doing all in our power to eliminate future emissions and transition away from the burning of fossil fuels to a society based on renewable sources of energy.
Unfortunately, the people with the deep pockets, especially those interests whose profits depend of extracting and using oil, gas and coal to generate our energy, own our government. At best, their creatures in positions of elected office propose voluntary “market based” solutions to greenhouse gas emissions that have not been proven to work. At worst, they actively seek to prevent research and incentives for renewable energy production in order to keep the dirty, greasy money from their fossil fuel business flowing into their corporate coffers.
And while our corporate media promotes Islamic terrorism as the greatest threat to national security, the truth is that the real threat to our continued existence on this planet, climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions related to human activity, is being deliberately ignored. Terrorism is a symptom of a world out of balance. Imagine if we hadn’t fought countless wars in the Middle East to protect the access of powerful multinational corporations to the oil and gas fields there. Imagine if we had done something last century to limit emissions. Perhaps the climate crisis would not have passed a tipping point. Perhaps the droughts in Mesopotamia which destroyed the livelihoods of millions of farmers in Syria would not have happened.
Too bad we are long past wishing for what we cannot have. What’s done is done. The CO2 and other greenhouse gases that are warming the planet will last for centuries. Yet, we could be doing something to prepare for the water and food shortages coming at us like a runaway train picking up speed as it heads toward our future.
If only someone would make the serious threat posed by climate change a major topic in the Presidential election campaign, and not just an after thought. If only ...