Bernie Sanders’ revolution is about getting new voters to the polls so they propel him to victory in the primaries and in the general election.
This will be a brief diary.
Here are the facts and the logic. Sanders’ supporters have claimed that opinion polls systematically undercount his supporters. They claim again and again that a multitude of people who have not voted recently, or better yet, have never voted before will actually show up and vote.
If polls are unreliable, there is only one place to check for how much on “track” his revolution is. And that place is new voter registration.
Here is my logic. If Sanders is, in fact, mobilizing many new and previously uncounted voters, then we should be seeing some evidence of this in the newly registered voter numbers. After all, his campaign has gathered speed throughout the year and he and his campaign operatives have had ample time to begin augmenting the voter rolls with the multitude of new voters who will show up for him. Because, if you are not registered to vote, you simply cannot show up and vote.
You may agree or disagree with my logic. But here is the evidence.
Total number of Democratic voters registered in Iowa in January 2015: 665,269. That includes both active and inactive voters… a distinction I will not bother with at this time.
Total number of Democratic voters registered in Iowa on Dec 1, 2015: 633,549
Difference? → (31,720). So, Democratic voter registration actually went DOWN by almost 32K?
Where else do we find potential new voters?
Wait… The Iowa caucuses are semi-open. So registered but unaffiliated voters can participate in either party’s caucus.
So, total number of unaffiliated voters in January: 813,580
Total number of unaffiliated voters on Dec 1, 2015: 812,067
Difference? → (1,513).
You can verify my numbers at the website of the Iowa Secretary of State, here.
For perspective, the number of Democratic Caucus goers in 2008 was about 239,000 and Obama won about 38%. I will let you draw your own conclusions.
Update: Embarrassing as it is, the numbers I originally reported for Dec 2015 were actually for December 2014. Correction to the diary made thanks to Adam B — numbers are now correct. Situation is actually worse (should I say dismal) for Democrats. But the claims of a revolution are even more bogus, based on the numbers.