RECENT HISTORY
Georgia is a profoundly gerrymandered state. In 2012, only ten of its fourteen congressional districts had contested general elections. Of the four uncontested districts in the general election, all were held by Republicans.
2014 was worse in the congressional races. In only four Republican held districts did a Democrat choose to run. Of the Republican-held districts where Democrats did choose to run, Republicans won by wide margins. In district 1 Democrat Brian Reese with only 38.8% of the vote lost to Republican “Buddy” Carter. In district 6 Republican Tom Price defeated Democrat Robert Montigel, 66.04% to 33.96%. In the 7th Republican Rob Woodall defeated Democrat Thomas Wight 65.39% to
34.61%. In district 9, Republican Doug Collins with a whopping 80.67% of the vote defeated Democrat David Vogel with only 19.33%. And in the 12th district, incumbent Democrat John Barrow lost to Republican Rick Allen 45.2% to 54.8%. So only the 12th district was even remotely close.
ballotpedia.org/...
In the contested race for the Senate, Republican David Perdue took 53% of the vote to Democrat Michelle Nunn’s 45.1% while in the gubernatorial race, incumbent Nathan Deal won with 52.8% to Democrat Jason Carter’s 44.8%.
In 2016 none of the districts currently represented by Democrats appear to be in jeopardy. In addition to Johnny Isaacson’s Senate seat, then, District 12, which John Barrow won with 53.7% of the vote in 2012, but lost with 45.2% of the vote in 2014, is a House seat Democrats might be able to regain. Unfortunately, no Democrat has thus far filed to run either for Isaacson’s Senate seat or for any of the ten Georgia congressional seats currently held by Republicans, though Wikipedia does list eight “potential” Democratic candidates for Senate. Probably the most attractive for me is Valarie Wilson, President of the Georgia School Boards Association and 2014 candidate for State Superintendent of Schools.
en.wikipedia.org/...
RECRUITMENT
Clearly, the greatest need in Georgia is recruitment of candidates. To have any future possibility of making gains in Georgia, we progressive Democrats must recruit young (under 50), energetic, committed candidates who are well informed or willing to inform themselves. This should be the priority in Georgia. While it is probably quite late to expect much progress in 2016, we need to begin recruiting for 2018.
FILING DEADLINE:
March 7, 2016
REPUBLICAN VULNERABILITIES
Trade
While all four Democratic Congressmen from Georgia voted against Trade Promotion Authority both times, eight of the ten Republican Congressmen voted for it. Only two, Lynn Westmoreland (3rd district)—my congressman and a shocking vote to me--and Doug Collins (9th district) voted against it. Notably, Rick Allen (12th district), the most vulnerable Republican congressman in Georgia, voted in favor of TPA.
I think the eight Republicans who voted for Trade Promotion Authority may be vulnerable on that issue. Based on conversations with conservative Republican friends and acquaintances (as well as overheard conversations among them), NAFTA is not popular in Georgia. Much of Georgia’s economy for many years was based on cotton mills. In the past half century or so, many mills have closed as mill owners sought cheaper labor abroad. While NAFTA probably contributed only marginally to those closures, the various trade deals over the past few decades have collectively had a significant impact.
Social Security and Medicare
It seems to me that given their consistent efforts to weaken Social Security and Medicare, particularly their efforts at privatization, Republicans everywhere should be vulnerable on their opposition to the programs. Candidates would need to be able to explain in clear and simple terms why privatization and/or vouchers are a problem. They also need to be able to explain clearly why Social Security is not going broke and what can be done to extend its life (end earnings cap, for example). If they support Medicare for all, as I hope they would, they need to be able to make a strong, clear, and simple case for it.
Medicaid Expansion
In recent years, several rural hospitals have had to close in Georgia, leaving the populations they serve with little access to health care and reducing employment in the communities they served. At least some of these closures could have been prevented had Georgia opted to expand Medicaid under Obamacare. In addition, failure to expand Medicaid will cost Georgia $33.5 billion dollars over ten years, a loss for impoverished Georgia communities. Candidates need to explain in clear and simple terms how such federal payments can have a multiplier effect. In Georgia, with its large military bases, candidates might use these bases to explain economic multipliers.
newrepublic.com/...
While most Republican congressmen will have had no direct influence over Georgia’s failure to expand Medicaid, we all know that Republicans made the decision against doing so. There is no harm in pointing this out, taking a strong stand for Medicaid expansion, and in putting Republican candidates on the defensive by asking where they stand on the issue.
Infrastructure (dams)
A candidate who strongly supports and is willing and able to educate the public on investments in infrastructure might gain some support. The American Society of Civil Engineers rated Georgia C- overall in its 2014 infrastructure report. Particularly poor were Georgia’s D- grades on dams and transportation; in terms of dollars expended per person on transportation and mass transit, Georgia ranks next to last of the 50 states. 484 of its dams are rated “high-hazard” while nearly 20% of its heavily traveled roads were rated “’poor’” or “’mediocre.’”
www.ascega.org/...
www.infrastructureusa.org/...
wildmorrealty.com/...
A favorite issue of mine, though one too few people are talking about, is the vulnerability of our electrical infrastructure. Due to the simultaneous structural connectness of our three main grids and their financial disconnectedness, we are vulnerable to cyber attack that could cause a disaster of almost unimaginable proportions, potentially resulting in the loss of millions of lives.
www.benjamindancer.com/...
www.zerohedge.com/...
Most of the people I know in Georgia’s 3rd congressional district, where I live, are conservative Republicans. While I do not often talk to them about politics, those I have talked to despise Hillary Clinton, but though I do not think they would vote for him, some seemed to be intrigued by and respectful of Bernie Sanders. This suggests to me that if Democratic candidates are to be successful in Georgia, they will need to be plainspoken, clear, consistent, and honest about their progressive stances on issues. They will also need to be willing to listen, to learn, and to educate voters.
Please note: I have been unable to figure out how to add links to a diary. That has actually prevented me from posting this and other diaries. If anyone can tell me in clear, plain language how to do add a link, I’d appreciate it.