I’ve been thinking about 2016, and I’m increasingly convinced the GOP is totally fucked when it comes to the presidential election. I mean like 400 electoral votes fucked.
The reason? Hateful shit spewed by the GOP’s top presidential candidates for months on end, to widespread applause from within the ranks. Things like:
“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” — Donald Trump (GOP front-runner)
"For instance, if there's a rabid dog running around your neighborhood you're probably not gonna assume something good about that dog and you're probably gonna put your children out of the way," he said. "Doesn't mean that you hate your dogs by any stretch of the imagination. But you're putting your intellect into motion and you're thinking 'how do I protect my children?'" — Ben Carson (Second in polls) on Syrian refugees
“If you look at the Black Lives Matter movement, one of the most disturbing things is more than one of their protests have embraced rabid rhetoric, rabid anti-police language, literally suggesting and embracing and celebrating the murder of police officers,” — Ted Cruz, (Third in polls)
This has been going on all summer. We’re into the holiday season and there’s no sign it’s ending. The GOP establishment keeps saying it’ll fade away, but it isn’t. We’ve been treated to this rhetoric for about six months, a third of the campaign. It will have an impact on voter perception next year.
The GOP primary is revealing the relative hierarchy of hate among the loony portion of the GOP base, which is larger than we thought it was. Muslims and Hispanic immigrants are currently at the very top followed closely by the perennial contenders, Blacks and of course, “Liberals”. Some will argue that the success of Ben Carson, or Marco Rubio/Ted Cruz might sway some black or Hispanic voters. But voters understand that presidential candidates are protected from the consequences of hate (by wealth and privilege) in a way that ordinary people are not. Every voter who sees a minority when they look in the mirror or look around at their place of worship (Catholics, Jews, etc.) is wondering whether the GOP has been overrun by people who might turn on their families someday. I know I‘ve never felt that as strongly as I do this year.
Flight of the Minorities
Virtually everyone who identifies as a minority will avoid the GOP presidential candidate in 2016.
Minorities (Native Americans, Hispanics, African Americans, Asians, etc) cast 28% of the votes in 2012 at a national level. I would expect this number will be closer to 32% in 2016. This is partly thanks to a long-term demographic transformation. A majority of the country’s population will identify as non-white or mixed within a generation. So this number is bound to grow, but I expect it to jump in 2016 because the GOP candidates have been directly targeting minorities across the board. Nothing drives turnout like the fear that a politician or party might persecute your family or friends.
Obama got roughly 70% of the Hispanic vote. Bill Clinton received 72%. My guess is Hillary/Bernie will get 80% in 2016, thanks to increased turnout and engagement. Obama won 80% of the minority vote overall, this should rise to over 85%. That’s an additional 3% margin in the national vote.
And then there’s Texas.
Electoral Math
Let’s do some electoral math first. Obama won 191 electoral votes with a margin of 10% or more. He won another 81 electoral votes with a 5-10% margin:
State |
EV |
Margin |
Colorado |
9 |
5.37% |
Pennsylvania |
20 |
5.39% |
New Hampshire |
4 |
5.58% |
Iowa |
6 |
5.81% |
Nevada |
6 |
6.68% |
Wisconsin |
10 |
6.94% |
Minnesota |
10 |
7.69% |
Michigan |
16 |
9.50% |
Together, that is a total of 272 electoral votes, enough by itself to ensure victory. The eventual Democratic nominee would have to mess up really bad to lose this election.
There were three states where Obama’s margin of victory was less than 5% of votes cast:
State |
EV |
Margin |
Florida |
29 |
0.88% |
Ohio |
18 |
2.98% |
Virginia |
13 |
3.87% |
That’s a total of 332 electoral votes won by Obama. Romney won 53 electoral votes with less than a 10% margin:
State |
EV |
Margin |
North Carolina |
15 |
−2.04% |
Georgia |
16 |
−7.82% |
Arizona |
11 |
−9.06% |
Missouri |
10 |
−9.38% |
Conventionally, these are the states that would be considered to be even remotely in play (ignoring the split votes in Maine/Nebraska).
But I don’t think this is going to be a conventional year. I think we’ll have to add Texas to the list. Romney won Texas by almost 16%. In 2016, the GOP margin in 2016 will be 5% or less, it might even turn blue. There are two reasons for this:
Americans don’t like the Republican Party
The distaste for Republicans is national. The favorability rating of the Republican party is at a 25 year low. Only 32% of Americans held a favorable view of the GOP (4% lower than in 2011). 60% held an unfavorable view (5% higher than in 2011).
In contrast, 48% of Americans favor the Democratic party while 47% hold unfavorable views (2% higher on both numbers than Oct 2011).
Texans lag the national polls, but only by about 10 points. In a poll released this week by UT, 49% of registered voters in Texas said they held somewhat or very unfavorable views of the Republican party. That’s half the electorate. And that figure might well increase if a number of first-time voters register.
Let’s not celebrate right away though, 52% said they held unfavorable views of the Democratic party. Also, some distaste for Republicans might be coming from the 34% of Texans who believe the Republican party isn’t conservative enough (go figure).
Texas is a majority minority state
Texas is 45% White, 38% Hispanic, 12% Black, and about 5% Asian. And those numbers were from 2010. Voter registration among Hispanics in Texas lags population significantly. Only 22% of registered voters in Texas are Hispanic. Low registration and turnout among Hispanics is a nationwide trend, with about 55% of Hispanics being registered to vote, and less than 30% actually voting in 2012. Numbers in Texas are even lower.
But this is 2015. Projections have the Texas eligible voter population this year at 51% White, 31% Hispanic, 14% Black and 5% Asian. In previous analyses, people looked at demographic trends and thought the margin would switch about 6% towards Democrats, giving the GOP a 10% margin of victory. The caveat was that if immigration reform became a major issue, it might impact the margin.
We’re now 11 months away. Not only has immigration reform become a major issue, the front-runner in the Republican presidential primary has been promoting Operation Wetback. Trump is viewed unfavorably by over 70% of Hispanic voters. Only 11% view him favorably. If you think nominating Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio is going to help matters, their favorability ratings among Hispanics are 26% and 23% respectively. And Rubio is Hispanic himself.
Fear for your family drives voter turnout
Trump and Carson/Cruz have planted a fear in the minds of Hispanics (and Blacks and Muslims) that their families aren’t safe with them (and by extension any Republican) in charge. Their plans range from forcibly deporting people, making their children ineligible to run for president, creating special id cards for them and more.
Some fraction of immigrant and minority Americans have families who fled countries ruled by strongmen who persecuted groups of people in the very ways the GOP candidates are openly discussing. This raises elemental fears among them, and among their extended families. 51% of Texas might be white, but about 7.5% of Texans reported being married to someone from another race. Almost 15% of unmarried persons living together reported their partner as being of another race. So not only are minorities in Texas feeling threatened by the GOP rhetoric, their extended families are fearing for their loved ones too.
The GOP establishment recognizes the deep damage Donald Trump (and Ben Carson and Ted Cruz) have done to the party’s chances for 2016. Their words have created the sort of fear that drives voter engagement. It’s the kind of thing that could turn Texas blue.
So, the GOP Is totally fucked for 2016. Next year, Texas will join the 5% club. The GOP candidate might still win Texas, but the margin of victory will be less than 5%.
Unless something changes radically, down-ticket races are in play in a way they haven’t been for 25 years. Voter registration and turn out will determine how clean the sweep is.