The Climate Summit in Paris will not offer many surprises. We already know most of the results. It may sound a little odd negotiating for two weeks if the result is already known.
During the year, countries throughout the world have been compelled to present their national climate targets. They revealed how much they will reduce their emissions by; how they will ensure good adaptation and, for many developing countries, how much help they will require to ensure that these targets are implemented.
When the Paris summit began, the largest part of the national plans, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs ), as they are formally known, were already in place, and thus we already knew what each country will do and how much climate impact the Paris agreement will get. The problem is that when you compile the national targets and compare with scientific recommendations, there is a gap.
Scientists say that global temperatures must not rise more than 2 degrees. Or, if you live in vulnerable areas, no more than 1.5 degrees, as the effects of climate change may become devastating.
However, when the national targets are collated we still get a much higher temperature increase than is acceptable. As it stands, if all the actions offered in the INDCs are implemented we can expect an increase of at least 2.7, perhaps as much as 3.5 degrees, which will lead to fatal consequences.
It then becomes clear why there is a need for an agreement in Paris. Countries will not raise ambitions, or change their national targets in Paris, but they must agree on the framework for international cooperation, and not least, how the global climate ambition can be increased in the coming decades.
The most important thing we need to get out of the summit in Paris is an agreement that works as a trampoline. An agreement, which should create a catapult effect, helping countries to increase their ambition in the coming years.
Specifically, this means commitment to revise and scale up national targets regularly. It is also a discussion about which ambitions to increase. Climate is not just about reducing emissions. It is as much about the need to find ways to increase and improve the work on climate adaptation and not least climate finance, as the need for investment will increase if the countries do not increase their ambitions.
We need an ambitious agreement in Paris. A climate agreement that can help countries to increase the ambition in the coming years. An agreement with a catapult effect!