CA-46: Former state Sen. Lou Correa has led the race to succeed Rep. Loretta Sanchez in terms of establishment support, and now he's released a new poll from FM3 showing him leading the race, period:
Lou Correa (D) (former state senator) |
37 |
Adam Nick (R) (2014 candidate) |
12 |
Bao Nguyen (D) (Garden Grove mayor) |
8 |
Joe Dunn (D) (former state senator) |
5 |
Jordan Brandman (D) (Anaheim city councilman)* |
4
|
Other |
1 |
Undecided |
33 |
Brandman dropped out of the race on the poll’s final night in the field, but FM3 says the news didn’t break until after calls were concluded; in any event, he was a non-factor. Correa’s definitely in an enviable position, and he sports a strong 47-15 favorability rating. Dunn (21-8) and Nguyen (16-6) are much less well-known.
Nick, meanwhile, isn’t actually running, but he’s serving as a stand-in for how well a Republican might reasonably expect to perform in the primary. The real question is whether two Democrats can earn the top two slots and continue the fight in November. Correa would very much prefer to face a Republican, though, in this solidly blue district, seeing as Nick only managed 40 percent in the general election last year.
The one area where Correa has lagged is fundraising: He took in just $70,000 in the last quarter, trailing both Dunn and Brandman. And with a third of the electorate undecided, this race could go a few different ways. But unless these numbers are way off, it would take something dramatic for Correa to find himself completely shut out next November.