As the steady trend of pushing civilization over the Global Warming cliff continues, the screaming warnings of the falling tipping points may finally have woken up a sleeping global community. After decades of deceptive claims and denials from the Oligarch owned GOP, civilization may finally have a last chance to come out of our global crises bruised and bleeding, but a survivor. Time is rapidly running out, the 400 parts per million tipping point for CO2 is gone, the 1 degree C and possibly the 1.5 C tipping points are gone.
The consequences of the falling tipping points are written in the news headlines:
1200-acre brush fire closes a stretch of Pacific Coast Highway near Ventura
Australia Bush fires Strike Popular Tourist Area
Central US braces for blizzard conditions, tornadoes
Rescue boats deployed as severe storms flood Britain
Tens of thousands flee South American floods
After 20 some failed international conferences on Global Warming, the recently completed conference in Paris gives some hope that we finally are willing to address the rapidly approaching catastrophe that Global Warming is. But the events in Paris have also sparked the inevitable question of, is it enough? Dr. Michael Mann has expressed his concerns that it’s not enough, in an article at the Huffingtonpost.
…
The question immediately arises: How much time do we have until we reach the danger zone? How close are we to the 2C warming limit?
It has been widely reported that 2015 will be the first year where temperatures climbed to 1C above the pre-industrial. That might make it seem like we've got quite a ways to go until we breach the 2C limit. But the claim is wrong. We exceeded 1C warming more than a decade ago.
...
In other words, the base year implicitly used to define "pre-industrial" conditions is 1875, the mid-point of that interval. Yet the industrial revolution and the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations associated with it, began more than a century earlier.
...
the most aggressive of the scenarios (from the standpoint of ramping down carbon emissions), corresponds to limiting net carbon emissions to about 3000 Gigatons (3 trillion tons) of CO2. We've already burned through about 2000 Gigatons, i.e. we have expended two thirds of our apparent "carbon budget".
...
So what's the bottom line? Well, we're actually closer to the dangerous 2C warming mark than many experts acknowledge.
...
If we decide that 2C is still too much warming, and seek a lower target of 1.5C, the challenge is more uphill. Reducing emissions alone won't be adequate, and sequestration of atmospheric carbon will be critical.
So here we have a prominent climate scientist sounding the tipping point alarm bells that we’ve already blown through some tipping points by using the wrong base year for our calculations. So what does this have to do with the 2016 elections?
I criticized Barack Obama an awful lot in 2012, and I sure would like to claim he read my blog posts and was transformed into a different president :), but for whatever reason, Barack Obama has become a remarkable friend to the climate and our children’s future.
Here are some of his remarkable accomplishments for reducing CO2 emissions:
Fuel Efficiency Standards
WASHINGTON, DC – The Obama Administration today finalized groundbreaking standards that will increase fuel economy to the equivalent of 54.5 mpg for cars and light-duty trucks by Model Year 2025.
Obama orders stronger limits on power-plant emissions
The regulations, developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), call for a 32% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. That is a stricter target than the agency sought in a draft proposal released in June 2014, …
Congress Passes Tax Credits for Solar and Wind:
According to GTM Research, the ITC extension will help spur nearly 100 cumulative gigawatts of solar installations by 2020, resulting in $130 billion in total investment. More than $40 billion of investment will be “directly attributable to the passage of the extension,” said Shiao.
The American Wind Energy Association expects similar growth. The group did not issue precise figures, but said the PTC extension would support tens of gigawatts of new wind projects through 2020.
...
Forget about the KXL, the Shell Oil Co. test well in the Arctic, off shore leases, oil exports…. These are simply symbolic political fights with very little relative impact on CO2 emissions, but what Obama has done above, is beyond huge. These policies will save 10’s if not 100s of billions of tons of CO2 emissions in the next few decades. And I consider the solar/wind tax credits the biggest accomplishment of them all. The only way we’re going to keep fossil fuels in the ground, is if we make ALT-E cheaper. The solar/wind tax credits are a tremendous boost to the industry and will allow the industry to use economies of scale to not only hold down their costs, but to keep them plummeting like they have in the past few years.
By now you probably know where I’m going with this. The daily headlines are filled with stories of the impacts of Global Warming. Prominent Scientists are saying we are underestimating how much we’ve impacted the climate already. Barack Obama has made huge strides in reducing our CO2 output and showing the world that the U.S. can lead the effort to save civilization. And if a Republican is elected president in 2016, EVERYTHING Obama has done to stop Global Warming will not only be reversed, but laws will be passed to prevent future presidents from trying to save the climate. And that folks, would be the proverbial ball game.
Possibly, the lives of hundreds of millions, if not billions of people, could depend on the election of 2016, and future elections beyond. The ultimate Global Warming tipping point will be a Republican president in 2016. Those are the stakes. Anyone who would not vote to prevent a Republican from being elected president next year, is no more rational than a Global Warming denier, and should be treated as such.
We’ve been senselessly knocking over Global Warming tipping points as if there would be no consequences, but we should treat next years tipping point as if the lives of millions of the worlds children depend on it, because they do.