Columbus mayoral frontrunner Andrew Ginther got some incredibly bad news on Friday
Leading Off:
• Columbus Mayor: City Council President Andrew Ginther had looked like the clear favorite against Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott, a fellow Democrat, in this fall's general election, but that may have all changed on Friday. Karen Finley, a former chief executive for the red-light camera company Redflex, pleaded guilty to using the state Democratic Party to bribe several local officials, and she says one of them was Ginther.
According to court records, Ginther's 2011 council campaign wanted a $20,000 "success fee" to keep the cameras operational. Finley then used a lobbyist to make a $20,000 donation to the state party, which soon thereafter gave $21,000 to Ginther. Ginther has denied all knowledge of illegal activities and asked the city attorney to investigate Columbus' contracts with Redflex; he insists he's cooperating and "will continue to assist in bringing these people to justice." His lawyer also says that the U.S. attorney's office has assured Ginther that he's not the target on any investigations. However, there's no doubt that this whole situation looks bad for him.
Ginther has a massive fundraising and endorsement edge over Scott and outpolled him 52-18 in last month's primary, but none of that may matter anymore. If Ginther decides to drop out before Aug. 10, a majority of his five-person nominating committee will pick a replacement candidate. We'll want to see where this all goes, but this is simply an ugly story for both for Ginther and the state Democratic Party.
Senate:
• CO-Sen: Former state Senate Minority Leader Mike Kopp has confirmed that he will not be challenging Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet next year. Kopp's gubernatorial bid last year never went anywhere so the GOP probably won't be too disappointed to lose him, but Team Red is still searching for a strong candidate.
So who might still run? There have been a ton of names bandied about, but only El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn is actually in, and he's barely made any impact. Here's a look at who has been mentioned for this seat, along with any information we have about their intentions:
• Businessman and 2008 CO-06 candidate Wil Armstrong: Hasn't said anything publicly
• Businessman and 2012 CO-05 candidate Robert Blaha: Publicly considering
• Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler: Sounds far more interested in 2018 gubernatorial bid
• Rep. and 2010 nominee Ken Buck: Sounds unlikely to run, but hasn't said no
• State Senate President Bill Cadman: Hasn't said anything publicly
• Conservative radio host Dan Caplis: Hasn't said anything publicly
• Former state Solicitor General Dan Domenico: Sounds unlikely to run, but hasn't said no
• State Sen. and 2014 candidate Owen Hill: Hasn't said anything publicly
• Former Craston, Rhode Island Mayor and 2014 CO-04 candidate Steve Laffey: Hasn't said anything publicly
• State Senate President Pro-Tem Ellen Roberts: Publicly considering
• State Treasurer Walker Stapleton: Sounds far more interested in 2018 gubernatorial bid
• Former state House Majority Leader and 2014 candidate Amy Stephens: Hasn't said anything publicly
• Rep. Scott Tipton: Sounds unlikely to run, but hasn't said no
Overall, not an incredibly impressive group. If the GOP could persuade Brauchler, Stapleton, or Tipton to jump in, they'd have a credible candidate against the formidable Bennet. However, Brauchler is currently prosecuting the accused 2012 Aurora theater shooter, so we probably won't hear from him for a while, and he looks much more likely to run for governor next cycle. Stapleton didn't rule anything out in January but he didn't sound incredibly excited about a Senate run either, while Tipton's initial interest appears to have burnt out.
Things looked bleak for Centennial State Republicans last cycle until Cory Gardner jumped in the race in February, and it's quite possible Team Red could find another savior. We also can't forget last year's Iowa Senate race, where Joni Ernst rose from obscurity to superstar. But so far, the GOP doesn't have anyone on the horizon who looks like they can give Bennet a real fight.
• FL-Sen: Republican polling firm Vox Populi (Mary Cheney's outfit) has some new numbers on a hypothetical Democratic Senate primary between Rep. Patrick Murphy, who's running, and Rep. Alan Grayson, who, so far, is not. Both men have similar favorability scores, with Murphy at 36-17 and Grayson at 37-21, but Murphy leads by 10 points in a direct head-to-head matchup, 34-24, with 42 percent undecided.
Vox then went a step further and tested a battery of negative attacks against Murphy—the sort that Grayson would probably employ if he ever decides to get into the race—while simultaneously fluffing Grayson with positive messages. Ordinarily, one tests positive and negative messages for both candidates; if you only go in one direction, then you're not interested in real research—you're just transparently pushing an agenda.
Unsurprisingly, after this array of questions (Murphy hates the poor, Grayson wants to soak the rich), Grayson comes out ahead. But these results only reflect some kind of laboratory experiment where Patrick Murphy and his entire campaign staff spend the next year chained to a radiator in the basement while Alan Grayson gets a five-minute stand-alone segment on the evening news every night to bash his opponent. Since it's probably safe to say that won't happen, these numbers mean nothing.
House:
• KY-03: Rep. John Yarmuth, the only Democrat left in Kentucky's congressional delegation, will announce his 2016 plans on Monday. There's no word on what he'll say, but Phillip M. Bailey of the Courier-Journal thinks that the congressman will either declare that he's retiring now, or that he'll be seeking his last term. Yarmuth expressed frustration with Congress back in December and said that while he'd want to see if things got better, "[i]f they're going to get worse, then I don't think it's something you want to be a part of."
Obama carried this Louisville-area seat 56-43 and our preliminary numbers say that Alison Grimes beat Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell 57-41 in last year's Senate race, so Team Blue would start out favored. Louisville Metro Council President David Tandy and state Sen. Morgan McGarvey have each been mentioned as possible Yarmuth successors, and they didn't rule anything out. Still, Republican Anne Northup held this seat until Yarmuth narrowly unseated her in the 2006 blue wave, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that Team Red could make a play here. But if Yarmuth is planning to leave the House soon, he'd definitely do his party a solid by retiring now rather than in a midterm year where low Democratic turnout could give the GOP a better opening.
Grab Bag:
• Denmark: Denmark went to the polls Thursday, and the opposition blue bloc (on the political right) won 90 seats, just edging the 89 for the incumbent red block (including four from Greenland and the Faroe Islands). Ironically, the outgoing prime minister's Social Democrats (abbreviated A on the map below) won the most seats (47), gaining three from 2011, while the party of the leader of the blue bloc, Venstre (V), lost 13 seats, down to 34.
But in a familiar theme, populist parties surged, including the blue bloc's anti-immigrant Danish People's Party (O, taking 37 seats), and the red bloc's new Alternative Party, which isn't shown on the map below because it didn't carry a plurality in any constituency but did win nine seats overall. (The other big member of the red bloc, the Red-Green Alliance, abbreviated Ø, won 14 seats.) Although the red bloc lost vote share nationwide, it gained vote share in and around Copenhagen. Comparing the vote share of all the parties in the two blocs, results show a common urban/rural divide.
(click to enlarge)
• Legislatures: Who scores the scorekeepers? Ballotpedia, of course. The incomparable hub of legislative and electoral data has hoovered up
every possible state legislative scorecard they could find, from the Alaska Business Report Card to the Wyoming Liberty Index, and everything in between.
In total, they found 189, from 103 different organizations, with at least one in every state except Alabama. Fifty-two percent are from conservative groups, like Americans for Prosperity, while 37 percent are liberal and the remaining 11 percent come from ideologically neutral outfits. The most prolific group is the League of Conservation voters, which is active in 19 states, while Texas legislators are subject to the greatest scrutiny, with 17 scorecards focused on the Lone Star State. Click through for full details, including breakdowns by state and issue type, as well as direct links to each scorecard.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Daniel Donner.