An innovative new paper in PLOS One has developed a formula for how long a conspiracy theory can survive before someone exposes it as a fraud. Using real conspiracies as a sort of ‘control,’ the study defines the relationship between the number of experts required to perpetrate a hoax and the time between the hoax’s beginning and eventual debunking.
Using the NSA’s PRISM project, the Tuskegee syphilis experiment, and FBI forensics scandal as reference cases, the study finds that if climate change were a hoax involving nearly the 400,000+ climate scientists found in the various scientific societies that acknowledge the consensus, it would only last 3.7 years before someone would blow the whistle. The study identified similar time frames for other major scientific conspiracy theories, including the moon landing hoax (estimated to last only 3.68 years), vaccination conspiracies (3.15 years), and the idea that Big Pharma is suppressing a cure for cancer (3.17 years).
In other words, the huge number of people required to subvert the truth makes it incredibly unlikely for big conspiracies to last more than a few years before someone either slips up and accidentally reveals the plot, an outsider does the science to disprove it or a whistleblower sees the light and exposes the hoax.
But don’t expect the deniers to accept these findings, as peer-reviewed papers are no match for the fact-blocking properties of a tin foil hat.
Top Climate and Clean Energy Stories:
After climate summit, this year's green bond issuance could exceed $50 billion -Moody's | follow a record $42.4 billion issuance in 2015. The proceeds from so-called green bonds help finance projects such as renewable energy, the energy efficiency sector, green transport and wastewater treatment.
Los Angeles files criminal charges against SoCalGas over massive gas leak | the company faces a maximum penalty of $25,000 a day for each of the three days it failed to report the breach to the emergency services, and up to $1,000 a day on the air pollution charges until the well is plugged.
Poor, minorities carry the burden of frack waste in South Texas — people in areas that were more than 80 percent minority were twice as likely to live near permitted wastewater wells than areas less than 20 percent minority.