American Samoa specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 6 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. American Samoa while not being a state or having a vote in actual presidential election, still plays a part in presidential primary. Presidential aspirants campaign in the territory with surrogates since in democratic party nomination process every single delegate advantage counts.
Basic Data: American Samoa has 6 delegates available. They are all allocated on a single state-wide caucus.
Single Caucus: There is just one single location caucus on 1st of March. It will be held at the Tradewinds Hotel in Ottoville Village.
Delegates Acquired
out of available
|
6 del
|
Delegate Allocation Thresholds/Triggers
1 del |
15 |
2 del |
25 |
3 del |
41.7 |
4 del |
58.3 |
5 del |
75 |
6 del |
85 |
For 6 Delegates: First two delegates are achieved at 15% and 25% respectively. Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, If candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. To get a 5-1 split is going to take a 75% support level. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split with 58.3% votes. To maintain parity only 41.7% is needed giving 3-3 split
Next bit is my personal opinion: Most of the contest is likely to be achieving 58.3%. I expect it to split at least (4-2) Clinton advantage over Sanders.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Currently I am running through the list of states. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.
Todays extra special shout outs for republishing/re-blogging and bringing these diaries to newer readers to Chrislove and Leftcandid
For those who want to learn a bit more about how unfairly American Samoans are treated in voting and citizen matters I recommend John Oliver Segment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CesHr99ezWE&feature=youtu.be
{ Side note: It looks like, if anyone happens to get in touch with any democrat in American Samoa, they will do their utmost best to persuade you to,
- Attend the caucus in person at Tradewinds Hotel, even if you live thousands of miles away.
- Ask you to contact your US House Delegation (All Representatives) and Both Senators so that they can be persuaded to let American Samoans have similar citizenship and voting rights as rest of America.
- So before you get in touch you might as well get that contacting Representatives and Senators and anyone else you can think of first. I am guessing this is true of non democrats too.}
And that is a good thing. Some one in right place needs to ask the candidates position regarding American Samoa. The whole area might be submerged under the sea soon without sufficient Climate Change control in place.