British Prime Minister David Cameron announced this past weekend he’ll hold a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership in the European Union (EU) just four months from now. This move comes directly after Cameron wrapped up negotiations with the continental body over greater flexibility and independence for his country on several key issues. The referendum is scheduled for June 23, but even though Cameron’s promise to conduct one was a key campaign pledge in last year’s elections, it’s already exposed deep rifts within Cameron’s governing Conservative Party, and its outcome—and ramifications—are uncertain.
Unlike most international bodies such as the United Nations, the European Union has sovereign powers in many areas that supersede the authority of the national governments of its member nations. For example, as a member of the union, the United Kingdom cannot prevent citizens of other EU countries from emigrating to the U.K. The U.K. also cannot unilaterally alter many of its own policies, including trade and agricultural laws, unless the EU agrees to it. In the areas where the EU has such powers, Great Britain is more like Illinois than like the United States. Illinois can pass all sorts of laws, but if they fall under an area where federal law reigns supreme, Congress can override them.
While there are numerous benefits to EU membership (such as increased trade and more uniform business regulations continent-wide), so-called "Euroskeptics” in the U.K. believe that the EU has become too powerful and that their country should seek to restore its sovereignty by leaving the organization and renegotiating its relationship with it. While no nation has ever quit the European Union, some countries, including Norway and Switzerland, have declined membership and instead work with the EU and other European countries from the outside.
Complicating matters, many Britons who support remaining in the EU often share in some of the criticisms of those who want to leave. The main argument of these “Europhiles," as they’re sometimes known, is that it’s better for the U.K. to have a voice in the debate even if it sometimes loses rather than sit on the periphery with no ability to affect the results.
Norway, for instance, has been derisively referred to as a “fax democracy,” meaning that Norwegian officials sit by the fax machine waiting to receive news of new laws from EU headquarters in Brussels. So great is the organization’s might that Norway, surrounded by member states and dependent on them for trade, must accommodate itself to EU regulations even though they don’t carry the force of law within its borders—and crucially, the Norwegians don’t even get a say in drafting them. Right now, the U.K. is one of the largest and most powerful countries in the EU; if it were to leave, it would wind up as just another (smaller) trading partner of what would still be a much larger union.
From the perspective of the EU and its member states, Britain is an important country that the union wants to keep in the fold. As parts of the European project have suffered setbacks, most notably the euro (the currency most EU members use, but the U.K. doesn’t), the organization has continued marching forward, even if in fits and starts. Having Britain leave entirely would represent an economic blow for sure, but more importantly, it would be a psychological blow to the idea of a unified European continent.
That’s why the EU was prepared to make some concessions to keep the U.K. in, and Cameron achieved at least some of his goals in securing them. The most concrete aspect of the deal would allow the U.K. to limit benefits to EU migrants who move to the U.K., echoing debates in the U.S. and much of Europe about how welcoming the country should be toward newcomers. On the hot-button topic of sovereignty, the agreement would also create a new power (nicknamed a “red card") that would allow national parliaments to block new EU laws if 55 percent of affected member states vote to do so. And in the economic arena, the deal also includes assurances that the EU won’t use British funds to prop up the Euro, though Cameron failed to secure any agreements to reduce what he sees as “excessive regulation” of the financial industry.
However, the proposals themselves does not seem to have changed very many minds in the U.K., at least among Conservative politicians. Those who wish to leave the EU simply view the entire European project as too large, too powerful, and too much of an impingement on the country’s sovereignty, regardless of any concessions and compromises.
But outside of the Britain’s ruling Conservatives (also known as the Tories), nearly all the major political parties support remaining in the EU, including the second-largest, the center-left Labour Party. Interestingly, though, Labour was once the more Euroskeptic of the two big parties. In 1975, it held an unsuccessful referendum on membership (two thirds of the country voted to support staying in what was then called the European Community), and in 1983, its official political platform—a much more important document in the UK than here—called for outright withdrawal. One Labour member of Parliament (MP) would later dub that manifesto “the longest suicide note in history” after the Conservatives, led by Margaret Thatcher, gave Labour a historic drubbing that year.
However, Labour’s hostility toward the EU came at a time when the organization served primarily as a trade association; in its original form, the European Union functioned primarily to increase free trade across the continent. As the U.S. has seen, free trade deals can often cause job losses in certain sectors and are often opposed from the left. However, as the EU broadened its scope and started regulating areas like workers’ rights, Labour evolved into the more pro-EU party. At the same time, as Britain moved to the right under Thatcher, the Tories became greater Euroskeptics.
But are Cameron’s Conservatives now signing their own suicide note? Unlike Labour, the party is badly divided. Six members of Cameron’s cabinet (out of 22 total), led by Justice Secretary Michael Gove, have announced their support for the “Leave” campaign, also known by the ugly portmanteau “Brexit.” This split at the top masks an even sharper division among the rank and file, as almost half of Tory MPs who have announced their views want to bid adieu to the EU.
Most prominently, MP Boris Johnson, the outgoing mayor of London and a future candidate for leader of the Conservative Party, has announced that he is backing the Leavers. Johnson is possibly the most popular current politician in Britain and could be an influential voice with undecided voters, though he has also said he does not want to lead any campaign himself or participate in public debates on the issue. Tensions are hot: At the session of Parliament where he formally announced the deal and the referendum, Cameron dressed down Johnson as sharply as he could without naming him directly.
Polling has shown the “Remain” camp with a slight lead over the Leave camp. Some polls have found Leave ahead, though, and a difference between online and phone polling has become evident: Phone polls have shown Remain comfortably winning while online polls see a neck-and-neck race. Many believe that the fear of the unknown, the public’s trust in Cameron, and the broad support of the opposition will carry the day, but polls are far too uncertain to be confident of any result.
Daily Kos Elections International will continue to cover this important referendum in the leadup to the June vote.