North Carolina specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 107 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
The state-wide North Carolina Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella.
Basic Data: North Carolina has 107 delegates available. There are 13 Congressional Districts(CD). So including state-wide at-large and PLEO allocations, there are 15 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each CDs are as follows: 4 from CD2 CD3 CD7 CD8 CD11 ::: 5 from CD5 CD9 CD10 ::: 6 from CD13 ::: 8 from CD1 CD4 CD12. State-wide allocations are 14 PLEOs and 23 at-large delegates. With only 5 out of 15 allocation categories of odd number of delegates options for delegate advantages are limited without an overwhelming support levels.
On a side note, North Carolina recently passed legislation for a new district boundaries for congressional districts. However due to timescales and such, it is unlikely that the Democratic Party will adopt the districts in their delegate allocations.
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 15th March 2016. North Carolina operates a semi-closed primary. Participation is open to all registered democrats and and unaffiliated voters. Voters must have been registered by 19th Feb for primary voting. Same day voter registration is only available during early voting period. If you have missed primary voting deadline then there is still time to register at the early voting and for general election. Uncommitted option is available.
Early voting period between 3rd March 2016 to 12 March 2016.
Double Barrel Primary:Presidential preference primary coincides with local and state and US Senate primaries. Annoyingly US House primaries are later on in June to accommodate the new congressional districts layout. Do not forget your down ballot people. Same goes for the General elections too.
State Government details on voting http://www.ncsbe.gov/
Voter ID Laws: A Photo Voter ID is required for voting (NC Drivers Licences, Permits, Identification cards, US passport/passport card, Veterans ID card, Military ID cards, Native American tribal enrolment card). http://voterid.nc.gov/photo-id.html) .
If you do not have a form of suitable ID, you can still vote by signing a declaration at the voting centre and providing one other identifying information (date of birth+ last4 digits of SS number or current voting registration card, or utility bill or government issued document with name and address or, bank statement or pay-cheque or government cheque or government agency issued identification cards). So if in doubt turn up anyway to vote.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below.
delegates Acquired
Out Of Available
|
4 del
cd2 cd3
cd7 cd8 cd11
|
5 del
cd5 cd6
cd9 cd10
|
6 del
cd13
|
8 del
cd1 cd4
cd12
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
18.8 |
3 del |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
31.3 |
4 del |
85 |
70 |
58.4 |
43.8 |
5 del |
|
85 |
75 |
56.3 |
6 del |
|
|
85 |
68.8 |
For 4 Delegates at CD2 CD3 CD7 CD8 CD11: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5 to 62.5 will still have delegates split 2-2. So these are decidedly the most boring for district based delegates. But as always the vote share will count towards the state-wide results. Without a spectacular success by a candidate this is just going to play at 2-2
For 5 Delegates at CD5 CD6 CD9 CD10: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is nicely balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split is a bit too demanding. These four districts become very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. Successfully breaking these districts will give a 4 delegate advantage straight away. These 5 delegate awarding districts will be contributing to delegate advantages. With so few places for an advantage these districts are likely to be fought over hard.
For 6 Delegates at CD13: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes. Otherwise we are looking at a straight 3-3 split.
For 8 Delegates at CD1 CD4 CD12: Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. A (5-3) split with 56.3% is still within current levels of possibilities. After the 5 delegate districts, these are the most promising places to aim for a delegate advantage.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 14 PLEOs and 23 At-Large delegates. The large numbers of delegates available in At-large category also means that a smaller movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages.
For 14 Pledged PLEOs: (See table below.) Because of a small number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly chunky. Some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 7.1% votes translates to 1 delegate. Reaching 15% threshold gives a starting point of 2 delegates. Third delegate is cheap at 17.9%. Subsequently every 7.1% gives an extra delegate. Between 46.5%-53.6% delegates split even (7-7). A small movement however is sufficient to reward the state-wide winner with additional advantages. . Crossing 53.6% results in (9-7) split. In the table below, only some interesting triggers for PLEOs are listed. Corresponding At-Large delegates at that level are also listed for comparison. A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.
Vote Share % |
15 |
17.9 |
25 |
32.2 |
39.3 |
46.5 |
53.6 |
60.8 |
67.9 |
75 |
State-Wide Delegate Allocation Triggers - PLEOs
PLEO (del14) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
Corresponding
At-Large(23Del)
|
3 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
For 23 State-Wide(At-Large) Delegates: (See table below.) Because of a small number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly chunky. The some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 4.3% votes translates to 1 delegate. Crossing 15% threshold gives a starting point of 3 delegates. Fourth delegate is cheap at 15.3%. Subsequently every 4.3% gives an extra delegate. Crossing the midway trigger of 50% gives a delegate advantage split of (12-11). For next delegate advantage 54.4% is needed. A little extra push could easily achieve this. In the table Only some interesting trigger ranges are listed. Corresponding PLEO delegates at that level are also listed for comparison.
Vote Share % |
15 |
15.3 |
41.4 |
45.7 |
50 |
54.4 |
58.7 |
63.1 |
67.4 |
Delegate Allocation Triggers At-Large Delegates
At-Large del(23) |
3 |
4 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
Corresponding
PLEO(14)
|
2 |
2 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
Next bit is my personal opinion: Most of the interest will be around the 5 and 8 delegate awarding districts. Turnout will be slightly higher due to state primaries. In all All 4 delegate districts Sanders will maintain parity with an even (2-2) split.
In 5 delegate Districts CD5, CD6, CD9, CD10. I fully expect Clinton to edge out Sanders for one delegate advantage split of (3-2).
In 6 delegate district CD13 I expect it to be fought hard with Clinton barely crawling past 58.3% to achieve (4-2) .
In 8 delegates districts CD1 CD4 CD12 I expect Clinton to do just above 56.3% splitting the districts (5-3)
Statewide Clinton will achieve delegate advantages in PLEO (8-6) and at-large (13-10). All combined state splitting (Sanders 45 - Clinton 62).
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Today’s shout outs to Kossacks family farmer and vivling and randym77
On a side note: Seriously getting annoyed at the voter ID /photo ID laws