The fact that Bernie Sanders has chosen to focus his Super Tuesday advertising spending in Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Oklahoma has been a subject of much discussion today. Hillary supporters seem to be celebrating in every thread, claiming that Sanders has “given up on the South (including Texas)”. Meanwhile, others have offered strategic rationalizations.
While I urge everyone to read MattTX’s diary, there is another, simpler reason that can help us understand Sanders’ strategic investment. States are awarded delegates according to a formula that favors states that have voted Democratic in recent elections. The justification for this is that states with more Democratic voters should have more say. As a result, red states actually end up with significantly fewer delegates per capita (The formula is also based on electoral votes, not population, so larger states like Texas are further penalized) Thus:
- Texas: 8.7 delegates per 1 million residents
- Oklahoma: 9.7 delegates per 1 million residents
- Georgia: 10.0 delegates per 1 million residents
- Tennessee: 10.1 delegates per 1 million residents
- Arkansas: 10.7 delegates per 1 million residents
- South Carolina: 10.8 delegates per 1 million residents
- Alabama: 10.8 delegates per 1 million residents
- Virginia: 11.4 delegates per 1 million residents
- Colorado: 12.0 delegates per 1 million residents
- Massachusetts: 13.4 delegates per 1 million residents
- Minnesota: 14.0 delegates per 1 million residents
- Vermont: 24.0 delegates per 1 million residents
Since TV advertising reaches (nearly) everyone indiscriminately, it is thus a poorer investment in red states compared to blue states. It makes perfect sense for a campaign with limited resources to spend in those blue states, where advertising is more likely to reach Democrats, not Republicans. Sanders has simply chosen the top three states (CO, MA, MN), apparently assuming VT was a lock (although will be interesting to see if he can keep Clinton below 15%). He has then chosen to make a strategic play for OK, hoping that he can win five states, and thus alter the media narrative.
It would be wrong to conclude from advertising alone that Sanders has “given up on the South” — as a simple glance at his campaign office map would demonstrate:
Finally, it is important to stress again that, despite its impressive fundraising, the Sanders campaign does have limited resources. If you would like to see Bernie on the air in more states, please consider donating $27 to the cause!