Arizona specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 75 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
The state-wide Arizona Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella. Many of the party documents are available in English and Spanish.
Basic Data: Arizona has 75 delegates available. There are 9 Congressional Districts(CD). So including state-wide at-large and PLEO allocations, there are 11 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each CDs are as follows: 4 from CD4 ::: 5 from CD3 CD5 CD7 CD8 ::: 6 from CD1 CD6 ::: 8 from CD2. State-wide allocations are 9 PLEOs and 16 at-large delegates. With 5 allocations having odd number of delegates, there are opportunity for a candidate to gain definitive delegate advantage.
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 22nd March 2016. Arizona operates closed primary. Participation is open to registered Democrats only.
Early voting period starts from Feb 24th.
Voter ID Laws: A valid Voter Photo ID is required for voting. If no photo ID to hand then two other forms of acceptable ID are required.
Accepted forms of ID are: Valid Driver's License, Valid Non-driver ID, Tribal enrolment ID, Valid Photo Voter ID, Valid State Issued ID (Any state), Valid Federal Issued ID, Valid US Passport, Valid Employee ID from Federal Government, State of Arizona, County Government, Municipality, Board, Authority, or other entity of this state, Valid Military ID, Valid Tribal ID, Utility bills, Property tax statement/notice.
More details at http://www.azsos.gov/elections/voting-election
Voter ID can be presented up to 5 business days after the election. So if in doubt turn up and vote anyway. Extract from secretary of state/election website : “If you were unable to provide valid identification on Election Day you will be provided with a conditional provisional ballot. The ballot will be valid and counted after you provide ID to your polling location before 7:00 pm on Election Day OR at the county elections office within five business days after the election.”
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. Districts with same number of available delegates are grouped.
Delegates Acquired
Out of available
|
4 del
cd4
|
5 del
cd3 cd5
cd7 cd8
|
6 del
CD1 cd6
CD9
|
8 del
cd2
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
18.8 |
3 del |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
31.3 |
4 del |
85 |
70 |
58.4 |
43.8 |
5 del |
|
85 |
75 |
56.3 |
6 del |
|
|
85 |
68.8 |
7 del |
|
|
|
81.3 |
8 del |
|
|
|
85 |
For 4 Delegates at CD4: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5% to 62.5% will still have delegates split 2-2. So again the sheer level of change in support levels required to flip does indicates not much activity here. Without a spectacular success this is just going to play at 2-2
For 5 Delegates at CD3 CD5 CD7 CD8: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is nicely balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split might be a bit too demanding. These four districts become very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. Successfully breaking these districts will give a 4 delegate advantage straight away. These 5 delegate awarding districts will be contributing to delegate advantages. Campaign activity might be a bit more heavy here.
For 6 Delegates at CD1 CD6 CD9: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes. Otherwise we are looking at a straight 3-3 split.
For 8 Delegates at CD2: Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. A (5-3) split with 56.3% is still within current levels of possibilities.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 9 PLEOs and 16 At-Large delegates. The small numbers of delegates available in these categories also mean that a larger movement in support/vote level would be needed for delegate advantages.
For 9 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials): (See table below.) First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 16.7%, third at 27.8% and fourth at 38.9%. Each delegate needs roughly 11% shift in support. The tipping point is again at 50% for the advantageous break with 5-4 split. Additional delegates acquired at 61.2% and 72.3%. Table shows triggers for PLEOs. At-large delegates corresponding those triggers are also listed. There is a separate table further down focused on at-large delegate triggers.
Vote Share% |
15 |
16.7 |
27.8 |
38.9 |
50 |
61.2 |
72.3 |
83.4 |
85 |
State-wide Delegates for Vote% Share - PLEOs
PLEOs (9) |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Corresponding
At-Large Del(16)
|
2 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
16 |
For 16 Statewide (at-large) delegates: (See table below). Because of a small number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly chunky. Some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Exactly 6.25% votes translates to 1 delegate. Reaching 15% threshold gives a starting point of 2 delegates. Third delegate is very cheap at 15.7%. Subsequently every 6.25% gives an extra delegate. Between 46.9%-53.2% delegates split even (8-8). A small movement however is sufficient to reward the state-wide winner with additional advantages. Crossing 53.2% results in (9-7) split. In the table below, only some interesting portion of trigger range is listed. Corresponding PLEO delegates at that level are also listed for comparison.
Vote Share% |
15 |
15.7 |
21.9 |
28.2 |
34.4 |
40.7 |
53.2 |
59.4 |
65.7 |
71.9 |
78.2 |
84.4 |
Delegate Allocation triigers - AT-Large delegates
At-Large (del 16) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
PLEO (Del 9) |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
Taking into account the whole state, Arizona is where Sanders has a super delegate (Rep Grijalva) actively campaigning for him. Campaigns internal polls data might be driving the activity here. However expect the results from CD2 to have disproportionately higher impact on state-wide results.
Next bit is my personal opinion: Most of the contest is likely to be at the many three triggers between 55% — 65%. Any extra push would have a chance of crossing delegate allocation triggers. Here too i expect every single odd delegate district to break in favour of Clinton. CD2 results should be more interesting as it would have disproportionate impact due to higher number of Democrats here. I expect Clinton to safely achieve 60% in all districts. However Sanders support level is likely to prevent Clinton from gaining enough votes to cross the next delegate allocation triggers.
In the 4 delegate district, CD1 Not a lot of excitement as (3-1) split at occurs at 62.5%. Expect the district will break (2-2).
In 5 delegate districts of CD3 CD5 CD7 and CD8, they will all break (3-2) comfortably for Clinton. The next advantage occurs at 70% hence unlikely.
In 6 delegate districts CD1 CD6 and CD9, I expect them to break for Clinton at (4-2) which needs just 58.4% votes.
In 8 delegate district CD2 breaking (5-3) in favour for Clinton who needs only 56.3% to achieve it.
Statewide around 60%. There are two triggers here in play, 59.4% and 61.2%. Clinton campaign might possibly have these within reach. My calculation is for Clinton at 60% (only achieving one trigger), delegates breaking (9-7) for at large and (5-4) for PLEOs. All combined total Clinton 46 Sanders 29. Clinton achieving 17 delegate advantage.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Irrespective of my personal admiration for certain politicians, I advocate more participation party affairs by everyone.I profess indiscriminate activism for all camps. And most Importantly local politics participation.
Today’s shout outs to, ZenTrainer and 50 State Strategy Project
And to all Kossacks who are trying to get elected to the party offices everywhere, salute.