Utah specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 33 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
Basic Data: Utah has 33 delegates available. There are 4 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations PLEO and at-large delegates, there are 6 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 5 from CD1 CD3; 6 from CD2 CD4. Additionally 4 PLEOs and 7 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results.
Caucus Information: Caucus is scheduled for 22nd March 2016. Utah operates an open caucus. Uncommitted/Undeclared is a candidate by default. Caucus is held at neighbourhood (aka precinct) organization level.
It is open for everyone upon declaring themselves to be democrats and not participate in other parties primary events. Party affiliation can be changed on the day of the caucus.
More information here http://utahdemocrats.org/caucusnight2016/ Neighbourhoods elect delegates to county which in turn elect delegates to state/district conventions.
Voter ID Laws: A valid Voter ID is required for voting. If no photo ID to hand then two other forms of acceptable ID are required.
Accepted forms of ID are: Valid Driver's License, Valid Non-driver ID, valid Utah permit to carry concealed weapon Tribal enrolment ID, Valid Photo Voter ID, Valid State Issued ID (Any state), Valid Federal Issued ID, Valid US Passport, Valid Employee ID from Federal Government, State of Arizona, County Government, Municipality, Board, Authority, or other entity of this state, Valid Military ID, Valid Tribal ID, Utility bills, Property tax statement/notice, Social Security Card, birth certificate, hunting/fishing licence, naturalization certificate, court record of name change or adoption,
Unusually these are also accepted: ID card issued by a state recognized institution (university/college/technical/professional school), vehicle registration card. An ID issued by an employer (employer must be properly registered with the state). medical aid/medicare/ electronic benefits transfer card,
More information at http://vote.utah.gov/vote/menu/requirements.html
No Delegate Tampering: The caucus results are binding on a delegate. A delegate at each stage must vote for their declared candidate unless the candidate withdraws or becomes unviable at the next stage. Uncommitted are allowed to change their preference once and must stick to the subsequent preference like other delegates.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below.
Delegates Acquired
Out of Available
|
5 del
CD1 CD3
|
6 del
CD2 CD4
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 Del |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
30 |
25 |
3 del |
50 |
41.7 |
4 del |
70 |
58.4 |
5 del |
85 |
75 |
For 5 Delegates at CD1 CD3: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is nicely balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split might be a bit too demanding. These two districts become very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. Successfully breaking these districts will give a 2 delegate advantage straight away. These 5 delegate awarding districts will be contributing to delegate advantages. Campaign activity might be a bit more heavy here.
For 6 Delegates at CD2 CD4: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes. Otherwise we are looking at a straight 3-3 split.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 4 PLEOs and 7 At-Large delegates. The small numbers of delegates available also means that a larger movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages
For 4 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials): The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5% to 62.5% will still have delegates split 2-2. To gain a definitive advantage a candidate needs to cross 62.5% trigger resulting in a delegate split of 3-1. Due to small number of triggers both categories are presented in single table. For each trigger, a corresponding PLEO and at-Large delegates at that trigger are shown.
Vote Share% |
15 |
21.4 |
35.7 |
37.5 |
50 |
62.5 |
64.3 |
78.6 |
85 |
|
|
State-wide Delegate Allocation Triggers
PLEO (4Del) |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
|
|
At-Large (7Del) |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
For 7 State-wide (At-Large) Delegates: Since these have an odd number of delegates, Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. 6-1 split happens at 78.6. Again this is an unlikely scenario. Question is will Sanders be able to cross the threshold of 64.3% to force a 5-2 split or will he have to be satisfied with 4-3 split. Roughly 14.3% votes translate to 1 delegate. The table above shows the Both category specific trigger percentages and their corresponding delegates. The at large delegates listed here are corresponding numbers at PLEO percentages.
Next bit is my personal opinion: I suspect every odd delegate break will go on Clinton favour. making mostly 3-2 delegate split. Even though this is mostly a white population state, the democratic party voters will still be voting party line. Clinton will have at least 55,000 voters who will no matter what vote for Clinton. Sanders advantage will have to rely not only on having a higher voter turn out, built also on a substantial portion of the new turnout to be in his favour. The famous gay mayor of salt lake city campaigning for Clinton will be helpful. LGBT groups endorsement and campaign efforts from Utah has gone to Clinton too.
In 5 delegate districts CD1 CD3 Clinton advantage with (3-2) split of delegates.
In 6 delegate districts CD2 CD4. I expect Clinton to be near enough above 58% to break these (4-2) delegates in favour.
Statewide results (2-1) PLEOs and (4-3) at-large delegates. Overall combined for the whole state breaking (20- 13) in Clinton favour.
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Dedicated results tracker which gets updated after each primary/caucus here Democratic-Primary-Pledged-Delegates-Results-Tracker-Delegate-Mathematics
Today's shout outs to Kossacks Smoh and Hohenzollern.
Big oodles of thank you to PacNW Kossacks and Lefty Coaster for republishing Idaho-Delegate-Mathematics-23-Dels
Currently I am running through the list of states in chronological order. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.