Washington specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 101 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. The state-wide Washington Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Washington has 101 delegates available. There are 10 Congressional Districts (CD). So including state-wide allocations PLEO and at-large delegates, there are 12 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in are as follows: 4 from CD4; 5 from CD5; 6 from 8 CD3 CD8 CD10; 7 from CD1 CD2 CD6 CD9; 12 from CD7. Additionally 12 PLEOs and 22 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results (state caucus/convention).
Caucus Information: Caucus is scheduled for 26th March 2016. Washington operates an open caucus. Uncommitted/Undeclared is a candidate by default.
Same day voter registration is available. Party affiliations are not registered however a self-declaration of being a Democrat is required. (So turn up say you are a Democrat when you sign in, put a tick in the box saying “yep me Democrat” or something similar).
Washington operates a three-tier caucus process. Delegates are elected first at precinct then at county to Congressional District/state party state convention.
More information on caucus locations and other stuff here: http://www.wa-democrats.org/page/2016-democratic-caucuses and http://www.wa-democrats.org/page/2016-democratic-caucuses-faq
Voter registration information at state:http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/voters/
Voter ID Laws: Unlike other states, Washington has a slightly relaxed requirements regarding voter id. Photo ID is not needed.http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/voters/
Vote-by-mail: This only applies to elections and does not apply to party organized caucus. http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/faq_vote_by_mail.aspx
The Washington Democratic Party however does support surrogate participation in case of some specific condition that prevents someone from attending ion person. This is limited to "religious observance, military service, disability, illness, or work schedule”.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change (increase) in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. With only 5 districts having odd number of delegates, opportunities for advantages are few.
Delegates ACquired
Out of available
|
4 del
cd4
|
5 del
CD5
|
6 del
CD3 CD8
CD10
|
7 del
CD1 CD2
CD6 CD9
|
12 del
CD7
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
21.4 |
15 |
3 del |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
35.7 |
20.9 |
4 del |
85 |
70 |
58.4 |
50 |
29.2 |
5 del |
|
85 |
75 |
64.3 |
37.5 |
6 del |
|
|
85 |
78.6 |
45.9 |
7 del |
|
|
|
85 |
54.2 |
8 del |
|
|
|
|
62.5 |
For 4 Delegates at CD4: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5% to 62.5% will still have delegates split 2-2. So again the sheer level of change in support levels required to flip does indicates not much activity here. Without a spectacular success this is just going to play at 2-2
For 5 Delegates at CD5: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is nicely balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split might be a bit too demanding. These four districts become very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. Successfully breaking these districts will give a 1 delegate advantage straight away. These 5 delegate awarding districts will be contributing to delegate advantages. Campaign activity might be a bit more heavy here.
For 6 Delegates at CD3 CD8: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes. Otherwise we are looking at a straight 3-3 split.
For 7 Delegates at CD1 CD2 CD6 CD9 : First two delegates are cheap at 15% and 21.4%. Within the range of 35.7% — 50% the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. To maintain competitiveness, each campaign should be aiming to maintain at least 35.7% vote share and retain a 3 delegates and then slug it out for final odd delegate for an advantage by crossing 50%. These 4 districts will provide an opportunity to gain delegate advantages.
For 12 Delegates at CD7 : First two delegates are cheap at 15%. Third delegate only at 20.9%. Each subsequent 8.3% rewards an extra delegate. Between 45.9% — 54.2% district breaks even with delegates split (6-6). For that upper hand vote share of 54.2% is needed. The next advantage is at 62.5%.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: (See table Below) Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 12PLEOs and 22 At-Large delegates. The large numbers of delegates available in these categories also mean that a smaller movement in support/vote level would be needed for delegate advantages.
The table below shows the PLEO specific triggers points. The at large delegates listed here are corresponding numbers at PLEO percentages. A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.
Vote share% |
15% |
20.9% |
29.2% |
37.5% |
45.9% |
54.2% |
62.5% |
70.9% |
79.2% |
Statewide Delegate for Vote Share Table - PLEOs
PLEOs (12) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
Corresponding
At-Large Dels (22) |
3 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
For 12 Pledged PLEOs: Once again due to large number of delegates in this category, roughly 8.3% votes translate to 1 delegate. At 15% vote share 2 Delegates are acquired. Third one at 20.8%. Each subsequent delegate from then on at 8.3% increments. Even split (6-6) ranges from 45.9% — 54.2%. So in order to achieve a delegate advantage here a candidate will need to cross perform fairly well overall beyond 54.2%
For 22 Delegates State-wide (at-large): (See table below.) Because of a high number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Results should reflect the similar percentages. The extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 4.5% votes translates to 1 delegate. crossing 15% threshold gives a starting point of 3 delegates. Fourth delegate is cheap at 16.0%. Subsequently every 4.5% gives an extra delegate. Between 47.8% and 52.3% delegates split evenly (11-11). Only interesting trigger range for at-large delegates are listed. Corresponding PLEOs at that level are also listed for comparison.
Vote Share% |
15% |
16.0% |
34.1% |
38.7% |
43.2% |
47.8% |
52.3% |
56.9% |
61.4% |
66% |
70.5% |
Statewide delegate For Vote Share Table - At-Large
AT-Large Dels (22) |
3 |
4 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
Corresponding
PLEOS (12)
|
2 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7
|
7 |
8 |
8 |
Next bit is my personal opinion: With the number of posts showing an interest in Washington with it being a caucus state and a very activism oriented Democratic party and members, it should be good for Bernie Sanders. It is expected/touted (by some Kossacks) to counter the imbalance of 1st March primaries that went in favour of Hillary Clinton. Even with Bernie Sanders achieving 62.5% vote shares across all the congressional districts and triggering 62.5% numbers, it results in the districts breaking (42-25) and the state-wides breaking PLEOs(8-4) and at-large (14-8), the total for state still comes to only (Bernie Sanders 64— Clinton 37). Total advantage of 27 delegates. The shortfall to cover roughly 200 delegates would have to be made up from elsewhere. Achieving 62.5% means having in vote terms +25% lead over Clinton.
The crucial elements will be breaking the districts with 6 delegates CD3 CD8 CD10 with at least (4-2) in favour. That would need 58.4% votes. While at the 12 delegate district only 54.2% is needed for (7-5) favourable break. The triggers at 62.5% cover making (3-1) split in 4 delegate districts as well as gaining a sufficiently advantageous position in statewide/at-large/PLEO categories.
If lets say Bernie Sanders only managed a performance of 15% advantage over Clinton, (votes splitting, Sanders 57.5%— Clinton 42.5%) that would result in (59-44) with only 15 delegate advantage.
I am using these two trigger numbers as example because assuming that similar levels of support as in Colorado (59%) and Minnesota (62%) hold, the boundaries should be within reach.
57.5% = (59-44) delegates
60.0% = (52-41) delegates Just enough to break the 6-delegate districts (4-2). The next delegate advantage trigger would be at state-wide 61.4% and 62.5%
62.5% = (64-37) delegates, assuming more Sanders supporters will have the incentive to recover lost ground.
My estimate, which has been as good as air on moon for predicting, is (59-44) delegates in favour of Sanders.
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Dedicated results tracker which gets updated after each primary/caucus here Democratic-Primary-Pledged-Delegates-Results-Tracker-Delegate-Mathematics
Today's shout outs to Kossacks Angela Marx who is running for congress from Washington's 3rd Congressional District and http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/12/05/1457065/-Help-Progressives-Win-in-IA-PA-amp-WA-State-12-05-2015-Edition has some candidates asking for a little bit of attention from everyone.
Currently I am running through the list of states in chronological order. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up while interest lasts.