The Path to victory for Bernie — Blue States. Not surprisingly, Bernie does best where there is a strong Democratic base within the state. While much has been made about how Bernie has performed with Americans of color and women, given the limited exit poll data that we have, the more blue a state is, the better he has performed with these important demographics (I hate calling any of us demographics since we are all so much more than that so take that word with a grain of salt). In any case, the point is that if Bernie focuses on Blue states, I believe he will perform better and better and he can win the nomination. In general, Bernie has outperformed polls in blue states, while underperforming them in red states. So there is hope.
Here is how delegates have broken down thus far (keep in mind some delegates are still being awarded):
Delegates To Date
|
Hillary |
Bernie |
596 |
399 |
Blue States |
77 |
107 |
Swing States |
142 |
122 |
Red States |
373 |
168 |
Non-States |
4 |
2 |
As you can see, Hillary is crushing the Red States. This primary season is front-loaded with southern Red States. In theory that’s great. Democrats in Red States deserve a voice. But if you are going to front load them you can’t then demand that people drop out of the race with most of the Blue and Swing States left to go. We deserve a voice too. Also, most of the northern Red States are coming up and Bernie will do better in those states than he did in the southern ones.
|
Delegates
Awarded |
Delegates
To Go |
Blue States |
235 |
2122 |
Swing States |
292 |
405 |
Red States |
384 |
1119 |
Non-States |
6 |
147 |
Bernie is behind in most of the upcoming polls. But he has shown that he can compete so more and more people will take the time to listen to his message. He also has a lot of money, so he can use a focused advertising strategy to win delegates in key states — a strategy that worked very well on Super Tuesday. He may not be able to overcome Hillary. If that happens, we will benefit from the interest generated by having a competitive Democratic primary (free media, interested base, greater awareness of Congressional races, etc...). Staying in the race is good for Hillary too — more on that later this week (i’ve got work to do).
I used 538’s data for delegates: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...