Connecticut specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 55 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Connecticut Democratic Party is affiliated with and participates in Presidential Nomination with National Democratic Party umbrella.
Basic Data: Connecticut has 55 delegates available. There are 5 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations PLEO and at-large delegates, there are 7 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 7 from CD2 CD3 CD4 CD5 and 8 from CD1. Additionally 7 PLEOs and 12 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results. With 5 out of 7 allocation units having an odd number of delegates opportunity for delegate advantages exist.
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 26th April 2016. Connecticut operates a closed primary. Participation is open only to registered members of the Democratic Party.
More information/FAQ from the Democratic Party here http://ctdems.org/get-involved/vote/ and
Same day registration is available but limited to pre-defined Election Day Registration locations only. It is not necessarily available at polling station. More information here at http://www.ct.gov/sots/cwp/view.asp?a=3179&q=534366
State government information on voting and voter related stuff here http://www.ct.gov/sots/cwp/view.asp?a=3172&q=525432
Early/Absentee Voting: Starts April 5th. (for military and overseas starts 12 March).
Voter ID Laws: ID is required. ID requirements are fairly relaxed compared to other states.
If not a first time voter ID does not have to be photo ID. It does not have to list residence address. Acceptable documents are : social security card, or Any pre-printed form of identification that shows ( name and address, or name and signature, name and photograph) ; So just about any ID, drivers license or utility bill or government document will be accepted.
For the first timers try and have something extra with you.
Vote can still be cast if suitable ID is not available, simply by signing a declaration form at polling station. So if in doubt turn up and vote.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). A total of only 163 delegates are allocated on district basis. Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. Districts with same number of available delegates are grouped.
Delegates Acquired
Out of available
|
7 del
CD2 cd3 cd4 cd5
|
8 Del
CD1
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
21.4 |
18.8 |
3 del |
35.7 |
31.3 |
4 del |
50 |
43.8 |
5 del |
64.3 |
56.3 |
6 del |
78.6 |
68.8 |
7 del |
85 |
81.3 |
For 7 Delegates at CD2 CD3 CD4 CD5 : Within the range of 35.7% — 50% the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher.
For 8 Delegates at CD1: First two delegates are cheap at 15% and 18.8%. Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. Aim here would be to attempt for 56.3% or better vote share and grab the 2 delegate advantage of 5-3 split.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 12 At-Large delegates and 7 pledged PLEO delegates. Statewide winner will get at least 1 delegate advantage in PLEO category. Due to small number of delegates and a single result being used for both allocation, the table below lists all triggers together with corresponding delegate numbers in each category.
Vote share% |
15 |
20.9 |
21.5 |
29.2 |
35.8 |
37.5 |
45.9 |
50 |
54.2 |
62.5 |
64.3 |
70.9 |
78.6 |
79.2 |
85 |
State-Wide Delegate Allocation Triggers
PLEO (7Dels) |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
At-Large (12 Dels) |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
For 12 At-Large Delegates (State-wide): Because of small number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly chunky. Roughly 8.3% votes translates to 1 delegate. Being viable at 15% will automatically give 2 delegates. The extra delegates achieving triggers are listed above. Even split of (6-6) delegates in the whole range from 45.9% to 54.2%. Any movement in statewide results above 54.2% would gain an advantageous break of (7-5)
For 7 Pledged PLEOs: Because of small number of available delegates, this is comparable to how a 7 delegate CD numbers stack up. 50% trigger is very important for the extra delegate advantage.
Taking both into account, while many triggers are available, but the central range between 37.5 and 62.5 has only 3 trigger point. For a big difference delegate numbers, vote share outside that range would be needed.
Next bit is my personal opinion: Overall make up of the Democratic electorate (and this is very different from the state demographics) according to Connecticut Democratic Party is 12% African American, 12% Hispanics, 0.3% Native American, 3% Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders, 6.5% LGBT , Disabilities 4.6%, Youth 20%. Based on that and district by district data from ballotpedia.org.
In CD1 with the democratic electorate a bit more populated with Hispanics and African Americans, I expect Clinton to carry the district at least (5-3).
In CD2, Bernie Sanders winning with over 50% votes to break district (4-3). The demographic advantages for Clinton missing here.
In all other districts Clinton to break it in favour with (4-3) delegates.
Statewide totals probably with around 55% votes for Clinton achieving (4-3)PLEO and (7-5)at-large.
All combined, (Clinton 31- Sanders 24)
The margins required for higher number of delegates is a 62.5% which seems to me at least not possible given current climate.
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Dedicated results tracker that go with these series of stories, which gets updated after each primary/caucus here Democratic-Primary-Pledged-Delegates-Results-Tracker-Delegate-Mathematics
Todays shout outs to subir and guavaboy who periodically bring us some stories from South Asia.
I invite you to have a look into a couple of story lines from India regarding seditions, disruptions and such, or perhaps they are just inspiring student activism. (without any prejudice or judgement) from subir and from guavaboy one event two different takes.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/03/04/1490251/-Protesters-shut-off-water-to-New-Delhi-last-month-and-the-gov-t-has-arrested-students-over-speeches
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/03/05/1496323/-Meanwhile-in-India-political-oratory-at-it-s-finest-in-favor-of-Human-Rights-for-dalits
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