It’s half-time people, the team is down 15. Thus far, it’s been like playing with the sun in our face in an away game. Rumors that the referee is dating the home team’s captain are probably true.
But the second half is set up for us. We have more stamina, and the sun is going to be beating down on their faces from here on.
Selection Sunday is done, and we had a low seed. But it’s March Madness people!!! Few expected the team to make it into the Sweet Sixteen, they certainly didn’t think we’d be in the Final Four. But. here. we. are.
Okay, that’s enough of the bad sports analogy.
A lot of us are feeling let down today. I had high hopes for Ohio and a fantasy for Florida. They were both dashed. But, the news is actually not all bad.
Let’s recap what happened last night using the 538 polls only predictions (they were all in Clinton’s favor).
|
538 |
Actual |
FL |
63-34 |
64-33 |
IL |
52-44 |
51-49 |
MO |
49-48 |
50-49 |
NC |
60-37 |
55-41 |
OH |
54-43 |
57-43 |
This is not something you’re going to hear in the media, but Bernie outperformed the polls. In North Carolina he narrowed the spread from 23 to 14 points, and in Illinois from 8 to 2 points. Yes, sadly, Ohio widened from 11 to 14.
Here’s where we stand on fundraising and delegates:
|
Bernie |
Hillary |
JAN |
20 million |
15 million |
FEB |
42 million |
30 million |
MAR |
Not A Problem |
Many maxed out |
DELEGATES |
837 |
1161 |
20 delegates awarded on Tuesday in IL are still to be determined I’m assuming they split them down the middle (IL was close). Bernie ends up with 847 and Hillary with 1171 and that would leave Hillary with a lead of 324 delegates.
There are 4051 pledged delegates headed for convention. Bernie needs 2026 to have a majority. There are 2033 delegates left to award.
Bernie needs to win 58% of the delegates left to be awarded. That is undeniably a tough hurdle, but this campaign has been overcoming immense odds all along. So second half-focuses the mind.
I’m not interested in moral victories or words in a party platform that will be forgotten the day after the convention.
I want Bernie to win this. Why? Because, Hillary is a weaker candidate, though I think she would still win. I think her general election pivot strategy is likely to be counterproductive and Bernie has less damaging negatives, I prefer his platform and experience.
There are some specific things that need to be done to get to the 1184 delegates. Note the number of closed primaries and caucuses below. People have to switch their registration to vote or register with the right party affiliation to participate. Some deadlines are past, some are coming up. NY’s registration deadline for instance is March 25th postmark, March 30 receipt. That is in 9 days. However, for voters who’ve registered in the past, the deadline to change their party affiliation was October 9th (h/t bzr). Phone-banking should emphasize that.
A piece of good news is that Reuters rolling national poll has Bernie roughly tied nationally.
Here’s the undeniably tough task ahead on delegates. I’m using a demographic model 538 developed based on a hypothetically tied national poll Bernie needs to win 127.5 delegates more than the 538 target. To do that, he would have to outperform polling estimates by about 6% (12% swing):
State |
Delegates |
Type |
538 TARGET |
New Target |
AZ |
75 |
Closed Primary |
41 |
46 |
ID |
23 |
Open Caucus |
14 |
16 |
UT |
33 |
Open Caucus |
19 |
21 |
AK |
16 |
Closed Caucus |
9 |
10 |
HI |
25 |
Closed Caucus |
13 |
15 |
WA |
101 |
Modified Caucus |
59 |
66 |
WI |
86 |
Open Primary |
48 |
54 |
WY |
14 |
Closed Caucus |
9 |
10 |
NY |
247 |
Closed Primary |
125 |
140 |
CT |
55 |
Closed Primary |
28 |
31 |
DE |
21 |
Closed Primary |
10 |
11 |
MD |
95 |
Closed Primary |
42 |
47 |
PA |
189 |
Closed Primary |
96 |
107 |
RI |
24 |
Modified Primary |
13 |
15 |
IN |
83 |
Open Primary |
44 |
49 |
GU |
7 |
Closed Caucus |
3.5 |
4 |
WV |
29 |
Modified Primary |
17 |
19 |
Abroad |
13 |
Open Caucus |
6.5 |
7 |
KY |
55 |
Closed Primary |
28 |
31 |
OR |
61 |
Closed Primary |
37 |
41 |
VI |
7 |
Closed Caucus |
3.5 |
4 |
PR |
60 |
Closed Caucus |
30 |
33 |
CA |
475 |
Modified Primary |
239 |
267 |
MT |
21 |
Open Primary |
13 |
15 |
NJ |
126 |
Modified Primary |
61 |
68 |
NM |
34 |
Closed Primary |
18 |
20 |
SD |
20 |
Closed Primary |
12 |
13 |
ND |
18 |
Open Caucus |
11 |
12 |
DC |
20 |
Closed Primary |
8 |
9 |
TOTAL |
2033 |
|
1057.5 |
1181 |
Closed means you have to be a registered Democrat to participate. Modified means you can change your party registration on the day of the primary/caucus or participate as an independent.
Friday, Mar 18, 2016 · 1:54:41 PM +00:00
·
subir
Updated totals since another 78 delegates were determined, that leaves 20 left and Bernie’s done a bit better in allocation than I thought. Lead looks like it’ll settle at 324 delegates rather than the 334 I’d estimated.