Below are the state estimates from here forward for what Sanders could do to get the majority of pledged delegates by the end of the primaries. I started with the 538 estimates for a path to the nomination and modified it based on regional differences and performances so far. This is not so much a prediction, but an optimistic view within the realm of possibility.
State |
ClintoN
Del.
|
Sanders
Del.
|
Sanders
Margin
|
Clinton
lead
|
DATE |
Factors (+/- for Sanders)
(Regional/caucus/primary type/Momentum)
|
Alaska |
5 |
11 |
6 |
290 |
3/26 |
++ Caucus/Northwest
(Closed but same day reg)
|
Sanders’ Possible Path (with clinton at 296 delegate lead via 538)
Hawaii |
10 |
15 |
5 |
285 |
|
++ Caucus/West?
(Closed, but same day reg)
|
Washington |
20 |
81 |
61 |
224 |
|
+++ Caucus/Northwest/Open |
Wisconsin |
31 |
55 |
24 |
200 |
4/5 |
+++ North/Open/MO
(Open and same day reg)
|
Wyoming |
3 |
11 |
9 |
191 |
4/9 |
++ Northwest/Caucus/MO/Closed
(Closed, no same day reg)
|
New York |
125 |
122 |
-3 |
194 |
4/19 |
- Closed/MO/Northeast/Early Vote/Clinton Home
(Closed, no same day reg)
|
connecticut |
23 |
32 |
9 |
185 |
4/26 |
++ MO/Northeast
(Closed, but day before reg for indies in person)
|
Delaware |
11 |
10 |
-1 |
186 |
|
MO/Closed |
Maryland |
48 |
47 |
-1 |
187 |
|
MO/Closed |
pennsylvania |
85 |
104 |
19 |
168 |
|
+ Midwest/MO/Closed |
Rhode Island |
8 |
16 |
8 |
160 |
|
++ MO/Northeast
(Closed, but Dems and indies can vote)
|
Indiana |
37 |
46 |
9 |
151 |
5/3 |
+++ Midwest/MO/Open |
Guam |
4 |
3 |
-1 |
152 |
5/7 |
|
W VA |
6 |
23 |
17 |
135 |
5/10 |
++ Midwest/MO
(Closed, but Dems and indies can vote)
|
Kentucky |
17 |
38 |
21 |
114 |
5/17 |
+ Midwest/MO/Closed
|
Oregon |
14 |
47 |
33 |
81 |
|
++ Birdie/MO/Northwest/Closed |
Virgin Islands |
4 |
3 |
-1 |
82 |
6/4 |
|
Puerto Rico |
35 |
25 |
-10 |
92 |
6/5 |
- Caucus/Closed/Demographics |
California |
206 |
269 |
63 |
29 |
6/7 |
++ MO/West
(Closed, but Dems and indies can vote)
|
Montana |
3 |
18 |
15 |
14 |
|
++ Northwest/Open/MO |
New Jersey |
61 |
65 |
4 |
10 |
|
+++ Northeast/MO/Openish
(Closed, but voters can change party at time of voting)
|
New Mexico |
16 |
18 |
2 |
8 |
|
Southwest/MO |
South Dakota |
5 |
15 |
10 |
-2 |
|
+++ Northwest/MO/Openish
(Open, but Republicans can’t vote)
|
North Dakota |
3 |
15 |
12 |
-14 |
|
++++ Northwest/MO/Caucus/Open |
DC |
12 |
8 |
-4 |
-10 |
6/14 |
- South/MO/Closed |
In this scenario, Sanders wins with an 10 pledged delegate majority. While several of these states could be overly optimistic, others could be improved upon. For example, this estimate assumes Sanders wins California with 55% of the vote. This is because many of the districts require only 50.01% of the vote to win extra delegates. A 60% of the vote win would net him many tens more delegates.
Factors that benefit Sanders: Caucus, Northwest, West, North, Northeast, Midwest, Momentum, Open voting, Birdie
Factors that benefit Clinton: Southwest, South, Demographics, Clinton Home, Closed voting, Early voting likely to benefit Clinton