There is a only a week left until Wisconsin, supposedly, “the state that can stop Donald Trump.” This misunderstands how the delegate math works at the moment, but more importantly, Wisconsin may prove something no Republican candidate or operative has realized yet, the Stop Trump forces need John Kasich to stay in the race. Primarily due to the continued weakness of Ted Cruz which has been obscured by the myths of the Trump ceiling and that a two person race will doom Trump.
These myths will be on full display in the Wisconsin primary, as it’s the first primary both takes place Marco Rubio dropped out and didn’t begin early voting until after his departure. As the first 3 person primary of the cycle it will offer the first test of the theory that winnowing the field to 2 or 3 candidates actually hurts Trump.
This is an odd assumption given that Cruz is considered the second worst potential nominee, a man whom GOP senator and former presidential candidate Lindsey Graham compared to a poisoning of the party. Granted, Graham has since endorsed the party’s poisoning, reasoning that there’s time to find an antidote, over the shot to the head that is Trump, but the point stands. Large swathes of voters and GOP officials simply do not care for Cruz.
This is evident in Cruz’ limitations in certain states. His victories have been limited to only a few specific types of states, he’s yet to best Trump in a primary outside of the mountain west, Texas or a state bordering it, which is where the lionshare of delegates remain. His other victories came from caucuses, which in both parties have shown results that wildly diverge from primary states. If Cruz is to actually keep Trump from reaching a majority of delegates, he needs to prove he can actually win outside of his comfort zone, compared to Trump who has won in just about every category of states imaginable outside of “remaining candidate’s home states.”
Cruz is further pressed to prove his ability to win due to the states remaining on the calendar. Nearly all of them are well outside his wheelhouse, in areas where he either came in third, or a weak second. 409 delegates are up for grabs in the remaining states East of Illinois, not counting Wisconsin. If he can’t show strength outside of his comfort zone, he will easily be boxed out of nearly half the remaining delegates.
Yet Cruz has won more states than any other Trump alternative, including those who dropped out. Perhaps this is part of his strength, but another possibility is that Trump’s voters are being split, not Cruz’s. This becomes more apparent when examining how Kasich’s best voter groups also tend to strongly support Trump over Cruz.
To understand this and come back to Wisconsin, we can look at the groups Kasich did best with in Michigan, a state similar to and bordering Wisconsin. In Michigan, Kasich’s best groups were the well educated, those making more than $100K and moderate and liberal republicans. With all of these groups, aside from educated voters, a trendline is clear, Trump does well with these voters, either winning them or coming in a strong second, while Cruz does not.
Going by income, Michigan showed that Cruz’s best group is those who make $50k-$100k, winning them over Trump by 2 points (34%Cruz-32%Trump-21%Kasich), but once people make more money, Cruz tanks. With voters who make $100k-$200k, a group Kasich lost to trump by one point, Cruz can’t even hit 20% by 16 (34%T-33%K-17%C).
Cruz also does poorly with moderate and liberal voters, in Michigan he lost to Trump by 25 points (37%T-36%K-12C%). As the electorate becomes less conservative, going from Very Conservative, to Somewhat conservative, to Moderate or liberal, Cruz’s support plummets (38%VC-23%SC-12%ML) yet Trump’s is remarkably consistent between the same groups (35%VC-37%SC-37%ML).
Cruz just isn’t winning over voters who aren’t “Very Conservative” or make a moderate amount of money, but not too much money, since Trump is walloping both candidates with voters making less than $30K (42%T-23%C-22%K). These aren’t insignificant chunks of the electorate either, basedon exit polls from the 2012 GOP presidential primary voters making $100K-$200K are 22% of Wisconsin’s electorate, plus 5% of the electorate who make more than 200K. There wasn’t enough data to provide exit polling for those who make more than $200K, so it’s unclear who this affects though. Moderate or liberal voters meanwhile are 39% of the electorate, granted there is likely some overlap between those two groups, but at worst this is still one in four voters whom Cruz has been unable to win over.
Going back to the theory of Trump’s ceiling, it assumes that these groups who have balked at Cruz overtures will back him en masse if only Kasich weren’t in the race, but why? Certainly Trump is a controversial candidate among Republicans, yet he still does exceedingly well with groups where Cruz struggles. It seems far more likely that were Kasich to suddenly leave the race, his support would move to Trump, bringing him to a majority of support in many states.
Wisconsin may offer the first test of this theory, as Kasich has pulled his radio ads and is focusing on congressional districts rather than win the state as a whole. His absence in some districts may provide telling information about where his voters go if Kasich can’t get his message out, even if he remains in the race. If Kasich’s support does indeed move to Trump, stopping Trump may be impossible.
As mentioned, moving forward about half of the remaining delegates are in the Northeast and Midatlantic, areas that favor Trump, but should also be Kasich territory. He should have strength in the mid-atlantic states given his performance in and around his home state of Ohio. Further, his second place finish in three of the four New England states, while nearly winning Vermont bodes well for his support in the Northeast. However, this all assumes he’s able to wage a full fledged campaign in these states, but his fundraising suggests otherwise.
His fundraising has been anemic, at least through February 29, 2016. His campaign only had $1.2 million on hand, while the outside groups supporting him (Superpacs) were $4 million in debt. Granted, it’s possible that his fundraising has improved since becoming one of the final three candidates, we won’t know this until March’s fundraising numbers are available, but his triage strategy in Wisconsin suggests it hasn’t.
Lack of funds could be devastating in the coming states . The largest ones have numerous and expensive media markets. Pennsylvania has 11 media markets, New York 10 and New Jersey two, which are the media markets for Pennsylvania and New York. Those three states represent 217 delegates, but also millions in ad time, money Kasich may not have. Against an underfunded campaign, Trump could win all or most of New York and New Jersey’s 146 delegates and the majority of Pennsylvania's 71.
Kasich’s lack of money could prompt voters and GOP officials to start backing Cruz, who has the resources to compete. Cruz has $8 million on hand as of February 29, 2016 and his Superpacs have $19 million, plus his $12 million February fundraising haul suggests his cash on hand should be stable, or even better. Yet Cruz has spent plenty of money in all of the previous states and has failed to win over the types of voters who support Kasich. It seems more likely that a weak Kasich, rather than resulting in Cruz becoming the main Trump alternative, will instead give Trump the last few votes he needs to win the nomination.
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