Hop in our time machine and join Daily Kos Elections as we revisit key elections from yesteryear and imagine what we might have written about those races at the time—without any benefit of hindsight.
Like many other prognosticators, we were skeptical when ex-con Robert Terwilliger announced he would challenge Democratic Mayor Joe Quimby. While Terwilliger has some name recognition as the former sidekick to local children’s entertainer Krusty the Clown (Terwilliger also briefly hosted the show himself), the fact that the Springfield Republican Party had to dig so deep to field a candidate looked like a sign of desperation.
Quimby, an admitted adulterer, has had his ethics issues in the past, but they pale in comparison to Terwilliger’s multiple convictions for attempted murder. What’s more, Springfield has also traditionally leaned blue: Gov. Mary Bailey decisively carried the city over her Republican opponent, local nuclear power plant magnate Monty Burns, during her re-election campaign last cycle.
However, Terwilliger (running under his stage name “Sideshow Bob” from his time with Krusty) has waged a remarkably effective campaign. The Republican released one of the best ads we’ve seen in a long time, and it appears to have caught the Quimby camp flat-footed (watch it below).
The spot shows criminals making an exodus from jail as the narrator attacks Quimby’s “revolving door prisons.” The narrator then effectively reminds the viewer that Quimby “even released Sideshow Bob, a man twice convinced of attempted murder.” There is no word on the size of the buy, though ad time tends to be cheap in The State Springfield Is In.
The Mayor Quimby for Mayor Mayoral Committee has only responded by re-airing a pretty weak spot that touts the incumbent’s dubious accomplishments and tries to deflect blame for the recent collapse of Springfield Stadium. (It does feature a catchy jingle, though.) Mystifyingly, the campaign has yet to feature Bart Simpson, a 10-year-old boy whom Terwilliger once tried to kill. The Simpson story certainly has far more emotional resonance than the town's "shiny Bigfoot trap.”
We’re drawing very close to Election Day, but unfortunately, there are no reliable polls here. However, there doesn’t seem to be any doubt that Terwilliger is closing. Daily Kos Elections is therefore changing our rating on this race from Lean Democratic to Tossup. “Diamond Joe” may very well be trying his best, but our gut says he’s going to fail. The lesson from all this may just be: “Never try.”
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