CYCLONE ZENA
A cyclone named Zena? Sure, in the Southern Hemisphere.
The cyclone (Southern Hemisphere for Hurricane) is headed toward Fiji. Weaker (as of now) than Category 5 Winston which struck the islands 6 weeks ago, it should bring heavy rain to the main Fijian islands. It is already causing damage.
While Cyclone Zena is yet to touchdown in Fiji torrential rain has already hit the nation causing widespread flooding in parts causing the death of at least one person.
The Fiji Broadcasting Corporation reported a 70-year-old man was found floating in the Sabeto River on Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile a 19-year-old girl was reported missing after being washed away by strong currents in the river on the main island of Fiji, Viti Levu.
Numerous roads have been closed and people living in temporary shelter have been told to seek shelter elsewhere in a nearby evacuation centre.
People throughout the country were still picking up the pieces left behind from Cyclone Winston lashing the country just a few weeks ago, when the government issued a fresh storm alert.
CA DROUGHT
Disappointingly, while Northern California and the Sierra Nevada reaped some benefits from this year’s powerful El Nino, Southern California---and the Colorado basin from where it draws much of its drinking water, did not. Jeff Masters has a report, especially on why it busted for SoCal. There might be a storm in the next couple weeks that may bring SoCal some rain. I’ll wait until I see consistent model support to believe it.
We should see this winter’s SoCal outcome juxtaposed against Hoell’s study as a reminder that even unlikely events do happen, a point emphasized by NOAA seasonal forecasters last month. “The results for 1982-83 and 1997-98 were probabilistic,” Hoell told me in an email this morning. Within the 130 simulations of the period 1979-2014 carried out in for his study, Hoell added, “there were model simulations for 1982-83 and 1997-98 that resulted in exactly the same precipitation patterns that we saw this season. Assuming 1982-83 and 1997-98 are appropriate analogs (which is up for debate) then this event fell within the realm of possibility.” Preliminary model-based studies by Hoell and colleagues suggest this winter’s sea-surface temperature anomalies from El Niño were not as effective as those in 1982-83 and 1997-98 in generating wet conditions in California. It will be fascinating to see what insights emerge from the data collected by the El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign, which spanned much of the February-March period that left Southern California largely high and dry.
EASTERN COLD
Oh yeah, millions of y’all thought, “hey, warm weather! Let me get a jump on that!”
Oh, you thought, didn’t you. Nope.
The earth is warming, yes, soon to be catastrophically so. That doesn’t mean you’ll get to plant in March just yet. It also means extreme swings in weather will happen. That’s some of what’s happening now.
Yes, our old friend the “polar vortex” decided to finally come and visit. At least the cold won’t last long. It just hangs out for a couple days, then warms up, then cools down. This yo-yo weather is bad for planting. I’m glad I didn’t put out any peas. I probably won’t.
The very active, cold, but highly ‘changeable’ WX pattern with large Temp swings will continue – with 2 or more outbreaks of unseasonably cold air during the next 10-14 days – along with increasing chances for late season Precip in the SW US, including SOCAL. A turn towards more seasonal conditions still seems likely during the second half of the month.
The ‘lobe’ of the Polar Vortex that moved into the Great Lakes/Northeast US region during the weekend has receded back towards Hudson’s Bay, but is expected to plunge southeastward again into the NE by the end of the week, bringing another shot of very cold air to the Great Lakes and eastern states over the weekend – with possible record cold in the Northeast. Since the cold air is relatively shallow (compared to mid-winter), the cold air surges will only last about 2 days at a time, with strong warm-ups between each outbreak.
OTHER LINKS
- The Anthropocene, a geologic age proposed by geologists (expanded on in some ways elsewhere in the social sciences) is probably a distinct layer now, a report in Science states. (The full paper is at the second link in the reddit post above, which may not be secure).
- Popocatépetl, 70 kilometers from Mexico City, had a nice big eruption this week. It has been continuously active since 1994, when it erupted after a 50-year dormancy. El Popo’s eruptions generally are smallish but it’s had some truly huge ones in the distant past.
SCHEDULE
Let me know which days you want. And as always , if there’s a major severe weather event, a liveblog can go up at any time.
WEEKLY WEDNESDAY WEATHER |
FORECASTER/DIARIST |
4/6 |
terrypinder |
4/13 |
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4/20 |
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4/27 |
terrypinder |
5/4 |
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5/11 |
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5/18 |
terrypinder (Hurricane Season 2016 Preview)
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