This is part 2 of a series I am making about how we can retake the House, and this is about the next 10 net seats. This is, though, about our most likely path, not what I think will happen. This is about the most likely path for us to win, so if we do win, this is likeliest what is going to happen. Here’s a link to part one, if you didn’t see it already, and let’s get going.
The next ten seats can really go in any order, I don’t care. Iowa 3, held by David Young is a good target. We have three candidates. They aren’t stellar, but Jim Mowrer can do the job. In New York 22, it is an open seat being vacated by Richard Hanna. We have a good candidate in Kim Myers here, and it is winnable. In Colorado 6, Mike Coffman is the incumbent. Morgan Carroll may actually be favored here, for Coffman has said some pretty despicable stuff over the years. We have three good candidates against John Katko in New York 24. Well, only two are actually good, but still. In Pennsylvania 8, this is an open seat being vacated by Mike Fitzpatrick, a very popular incumbent, like the above mentioned Hanna. Luckily for Republicans, Mike’s brother is running here! His name is Brian. We have State Representative Steve Santarsiero here, who consistently overperforms Obama (Meaning he overperformed Obama in 2012 and 2014), is being supported by labor, and actually did better in 2014 than in 2012. Santarsiero is the man to win this. In New York 19, this is an open seat being vacated by Chris Gibson. We have progressive activist, 2014 Cuomo challenger, and carpetbagger Zephyr Teachout and Livingston Councilman Will Yandik. While Teachout will forever hold my respect for primarying Cuomo, she’s too NYC for this district. I want to win, and Yandik is the man for that. In Nevada 3, we have six candidates for this open seat being vacated by Joe Heck, mainly Pastor Jackie Rosen, Attorney Jesse Sbaih, and Kossack Alex Singer. Rosen is the likeliest to win here. In the open Wisconsin 8, being vacated by Reid Ribble, just got a good Democratic candidate (Tom Nelson). And in Arizona 2, people have been pessimistic about our chances of defeating Martha McSally. I’m not. While this may belong in the next one, I think we can win this.
Let’s look at our candidates. In Iowa 3, we have Iraq War veteran and 2014 Iowa 4 nominee Jim Mowrer, businessman Mike Sherzan, and 2012 State Senate candidate Desmund Adams. In the money race, Mowrer has raised a lot, Adams has not raised much, and this is Sherzan’s first quarter in the race. In New York 22 and Colorado 6, Broome County legislator Kim Myers and State Senate Minority Leader Morgan Carroll are our only candidates, and let it stay that way. In New York 24, our three candidates are former Gillibrand staffer Colleen Deacon, Attorney Steve Williams, and law professor Eric Kingson. Note how none of these candidates have held elected office before. In Pennsylvania 8, we have the aforementioned Santarsiero. Santarsiero has the support of local Democrats, ProudNewEnglander, and labor. His opponent, Shaughnessey Noughton, is a businesswoman and a 2014 candidate for this seat who, strangely, has the support of national Democrats. In the Yandik versus Teachout race in New York 19, Yandik is probably more electable and is probably the underdog. In Nevada 3, our full slate of candidates are Rosen, Sbaih, Singer, Attorney and former Diplomat Steve Schiffman, Businessman, Chiropractor, and felon Barry Michaels, and Attorney Neil Waite. In Wisconsin 8, Democrats just successfully recruited Outgamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Every Democrat will probably defer to Nelson, who is an A-list candidate. Lastly, in Arizona 2, we have two mediocre candidates: State Representative Matt Heinz and former State Representative Victoria Steele. Heinz has been more aggressive in fundraising, but it's anyone's guess who will win. So, that is it for now. Part 3 will come in time. Good-bye for now.