It is pretty obvious that during the next couple months the whole community here plus half America will be watching the most important thing on the Dem side of the primaries: #TheLead. So, starting today, I am going to post a diary each Sunday about the current state of that same Lead. Some of you are seasoned electoral junkies and know all the stuff about the election process, but some are not and to help you understand the process better I will be doing some explaining here and there.
That said, let me start with the basics. #TheLead in our definition is the difference between the number of pledged delegates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have so far won in the primary process. Is does not include the superdelegates like most MSM and even some liberal sites do (please, have that in mind in your comments). #TheLead is the thing, that Bernie Sanders has to overcome, if he wants a real chance at the nomination.
As of this moment, there are 37 contests included in the math behind #TheLead, starting with Iowa and finishing with Wyoming. We had to choose between reporting the number of delegates based either on partial results, like some sources do, or on projections, based on partial results (the Green Papers style). We chose the second, but also made our best efforts to amend and improve those results by any info we can find online!
Some of the contests are primaries, some are caucuses. The ‘weird’ and the messy ones are the caucuses since many of them are multi-tier and we have only projections for their final result, based on the first or second tiers that took place so far. Such caucuses are Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Maine, Nebraska, Idaho, Alaska, Washington and Wyoming. The rest of the caucuses like Utah for example, pledge their delegates, based on the results of the first tier, so we have a final tally for them.
Some of the primaries unfortunately also don’t provide quickly final results. For example, it took Mississippi some three weeks to certify their vote and to give the final tally for CD3. I am proud that we here are the first to officially report the final split in that county and the state, since the rest of the media have not done so yet! It is strange how some state Democratic parties seem totally disinterested in the primary process and have not published any results or even news about it. The Secretaries of state report the results by county or at-large and that is not enough to determine what the splits are on congressional district level (Illinois for example). My favorites so far are JeffCo Dems (Jefferson county, Colorado) who refused to publicly announce the results of their second tier county convention (more on that topic later). Yet we were able to compile enough data with the help of AP and the GreenPapers to claim 99.9% accuracy in the delegate count.
So what you will see included in #TheLead are states with official final results, states with unofficial final results, based on partial results extrapolation, and caucus states with official first, second or third tier results, where we use projection.
Currently #TheLead is 204 delegates in favor of Hillary Clinton, since the split of pledged delegates according to us is 1304-1100.
contest |
Hillary |
Bernie |
status |
#thelead
Iowa |
23 |
21 |
projected |
New Hampshire |
9 |
15 |
final |
Nevada |
16 |
19 |
projected |
South Carolina |
39 |
14 |
final |
Alabama |
44 |
9 |
final |
Arkansas
|
22 |
10 |
final |
American Samoa |
4 |
2 |
final |
Colorado |
27 |
39 |
projected |
Georgia |
73 |
29 |
final |
Massachusetts |
46 |
45 |
final |
Minnesota |
31 |
46 |
final |
Oklahoma |
17 |
21 |
final |
Tennessee |
44 |
23 |
final |
Texas |
147 |
75 |
final |
Virginia |
62 |
33 |
final |
Vermont |
0 |
16 |
final |
Kansas |
10 |
23 |
final |
Louisiana |
37 |
14 |
final |
Nebraska |
10 |
15 |
projected |
Maine |
9 |
16 |
projected |
Michigan |
63 |
67 |
final |
Mississippi |
31 |
5 |
final |
Northern Marianas |
4 |
2 |
final |
Florida |
141 |
73 |
final |
Illinois |
78 |
78 |
unofficial |
Missouri |
36 |
35 |
final |
North Carolina |
60 |
47 |
unofficial |
Ohio |
81 |
62 |
final |
Democrats Abroad |
4 |
9 |
final |
Arizona |
42 |
33 |
unofficial* |
Idaho |
5 |
18 |
projected |
Utah |
6 |
27 |
final |
Alaska |
3 |
13 |
projected |
Hawaii |
8 |
17 |
final |
Washington |
27 |
74 |
projected |
Wisconsin |
38 |
48 |
unofficial |
Wyoming |
7 |
7 |
projected |
Total pledged |
1304 |
1100 |
|
Now, let me walk you through the data. You may realize that the totals here differ from the total at 538, Politico, NYTimes, the GP, etc. There are two reason for the difference — all pledged delegates from contests that already took place are included; we have put in the CURRENT state of #TheLead, including the last result from Nevada and Colorado, Arizona and Mississippi. You are welcome!
What about those non-final results, you ask? Well we have 13 such cases (plus one Mississippi):
- Iowa — the county conventions (second tier) are in the past now. Bernie improved in several counties, but Hillary also improved in some, so the initial split is projected to stay (a side remark: without the shenanigans in Polk county the projected result would now be a tie!) Current projection for delegates to the state convention is 701-698 with one O’Malley and one uncommitted, so it will either stay as of now or change to 22-22. We shall know the final result after the State convention (June 18th). The District conventions, which are supposed to happen April 30th, show no big prospects of change except for CD3, where if a dozen or so Clinton delegates are missing, Bernie can win the district. CD3 is where Polk county is, so we shall keep a close look at this event.
- Nevada — after the county conventions (second tier) Bernie made big gains due to massive no-show of delegates on Clinton side (about 50% in Clark county after sitting the alternates). One of our Kossacks — theportlandprole made an excellent diary on the aftermath. He was able to find the number of delegates for each county on twitter where a local journalist (thank you, @meganmesserly, Las Vegas Sun) published them (shame on you, Nevada Dems officials!) We don’t have the number of Clark county delegates for each district, so it is not 100% precise projection. IMHO there is over 30% that the correct current projection is 20-15 since Bernie was much stronger at precinct level in CD3 and CD1 (over 2 points above his Clark average) compared to CD4. So I believe he has passed or is very close to the the mark of 68,166% in CD3, after which the projection for the district will be 4-2 split instead of tie 3-3. However, in #TheLead we have put the conservative projection and we have the 19-16 split used in the calculations. The State convention is scheduled for May 15th and promises a lot of drama!
- Colorado — after the precinct caucuses the split was projected to be 38-28. However, on the second tier the results shifted massively in Bernie’s favor and he was projected to split CD1 5-3 instead of 4-4 and CD2 5-2 instead of 4-3. CD2 county convention in Fort Collins last Saturday was a disaster for both sides — 40% no-shows for Bernie and 35% no-shows for Hillary (and that was after sitting the alternates). I personally think that the state party is to blame the most since they didn’t make any significant effort to raise the enthusiasm. There were neither lists of the attendees published, nor information about the importance of the presence there (the probable 5-2 split was never announced). How can one arrange a carpool if he does not know who else is supposed to be there? Shame on you, Colorado Dems officials! The result in CD-2 went back to the first-tier projection (4-3). However, yesterday at CD1 convention the second-tier projection held and Bernie made a pick-up. The district is sending now 5 Bernie and 3 Hillary delegates to National. Yesterday in Denver CD7 also had their convention. To my knowledge no changes occurred and the split 4-2 was kept, but that is still to be confirmed. This afternoon CD6 will convene, but also no changes are expected. As of this moment Colorado is 39-27 Bernie.
- Nebraska — the county conventions are scheduled for late May. No changes in the splits on CD level are expected, but who knows…
- Maine — easy targets for both sides at the State convention (May 7th). Hillary has to defend a delegate in CD1, Bernie has to defend another in CD2. There are rumors for another Nevada coming, but I think no such thing will happen.
- Mississippi — CD3 was initially announced 5-0 Hillary due to Bernie not passing the 15% threshold. But the CD3 part of Madison county was not included in the tally (and still is not, neither at TGP, nor else). Madison county voted Bernie only 16.1% and Bernie had only 13,9% of the votes in the inner CD3. Not only Madison, but also Oktibbeha and Clarke parts of CD3 were not calculated. Bernie was over the 15% in Oktibbeha, but below in Clarke, so extrapolation suggested those three county portions will not be enough. But Madison is so heavily gerrymandered that Bernie gain 23,54% of the votes in the CD3 portion (something I knew in advance and that is why I checked the results). Together with the other two portions his total is 7832 out of 51078, some 170 votes (or 0.33%) above the 15% threshold. So I am proud to be the first one officially declaring Mississippi 31-5.
- Illinois — it is a mess (now imagine Larry David saying it)! No official results yet, many Chicago districts have parts from 2 or 3 counties, even some wards in Chicago are split between districts. Even TGP were only able to compile about 71% percent of the data at district level. I doubt that their numbers will hold but we shall stick to them until a better projection is available. Come May 9th we will know (probably) what really happened in Illinois mid-March! No comments on the state Democratic party!
- North Carolina — some 15% of the vote are missing with several districts too close to call, so we have the split 60-47 as unofficial.
- Arizona — the counting of provisional ballots is not over yet and so far it has changed the results in CD1 and CD2 (one more Bernie delegate in each). CD6 can follow. Plus there is a chance for a revote especially if the race tightens!
- Idaho and Alaska — two-tier caucuses, just like Maine. The State conventions are planned for June 18th and May 15th respectively. In both Hillary’s first objective is to remain viable.
- Washington — the most complex of them all. It is a five-tier caucus system — precinct, legislative district, county, congressional district, state. The second and the fourth tiers are where changes can happen. Legislative district caucuses are next Sunday and there will be selected the CD caucus delegates. Hillary may have trouble to remain viable in at least 4 legislative districts — 7th, 14th, 19th and 20th. The final state results will be known May 21st after the CD caucuses since the at-large and PLEO delegates are chosen at the State convention (June 19th), but according to the preferences from the CD caucuses! County caucuses are platform only. It is so complicated that even TGP have it explained wrong (they think CD delegates are chosen based on the precinct caucus preferences) …
- Wisconsin — they had until Friday to receive the last absentee ballots by the mail. I bet they didn’t count those during the weekend, so we shall know the final numbers somewhere in the next 5-10 days. No change is expected.
- Wyoming — two tier, the County convention will happen May 28th. After yesterday it was a tie, so Bernie will aim to break it, while Hillary will try to preserve it.
States to watch for during the coming week: Colorado and Washington
Friday evening the last 3 congressional districts of Colorado will convene (CD3, CD4 and CD5). The attendance will give us a clue of what to expect the next day at the State convention. Yet there is a separate registration for CD and State, so the campaigns will have an option to organize during the night and change the tide Saturday (at least I would be prepared do so). Hillary has a very slight chance to gain extra delegate in CD3, but will also have to defend one at-large and one PLEO slot Saturday. After the county conventions the projection for the State convention is 1614 delegates Hillary and 2433 Bernie. That makes Hillary favorite to hold (3.589 PLEO and 5.583 at-large projected as of now), but after Nevada who knows…
Washington will choose Sunday its CD caucus delegates. The second out of three votes there, but 15% threshold will be imposed (was not at precinct level) and Hillary is in danger in the Northeastern corner of the state and some portions of CD3.
Reminder: #TheLead may look big, but it was 322 delegates at its peak 25 days ago. Now it is 36,65% down and may drop way below 200 next Sunday.
Sunday, Apr 10, 2016 · 6:58:06 PM +00:00 · Demosten
An hour after the First Weekly Address we have an update: CD7 in Colorado was confirmed to split 4-2 for Bernie as projected (Thank you, @LeeBeeQua). #TheLead is unchanged. Colorado is now 1/3 final (21 CD delegates allocated) and 2/3 projected (45 more to come next weekend)