The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is in the midst of crafting regulations to manage the arrival of auto-pilot features in automobiles. Some are acting surprised that the traditional automakers are urging the government to slow down the process, because when does any industry urge the government to take its sweet own time?
Even some in industry said the predictability and comprehensiveness of the formal “rule making” process, which can take years, might have its advantages over the more streamlined process now underway.
Rosekind noted “the irony of having the automakers say, ‘regulate.’ I hope that’s not lost on anybody.” But he added the Obama administration’s interest in speed now does not foreclose the possibility of regulation later.
No one is arguing for less regulation. This better be regulated to death, as people’s lives are on the line. But Detroit isn’t urging slow consideration out of an abundance of caution. These are the same people who covered up an ignition defect that caused at least 124 deaths because it was cheaper to let people die than to recall.
They are doing it because Silicon Valley is leaps and bounds ahead in autopilot-artifical-intelligence development, led by Google, Tesla, and if rumors are true, Apple. (Volvo has also made huge advancements in this field.)
This isn’t the first time that traditional automakers have attempted to use governmental roadblocks to protect their turf. GM, in particular, has aggressively lobbied state governments to stymie Tesla’s direct-sales model, protecting the dealer system that hasn’t served consumers well in, well, forever. With the blockbuster introduction of the Tesla Model 3 (340,000 reservations in one week, for a car we won’t see until the end of 2017 at best), expect the dealership lobby to amp up its efforts to better block this upstart rival from gaining more traction. And if Apple enters the game at around that time? They will only grow more desperate.
But back to self-driving cars …
Despite distrust for robot drivers, fact is that they promise much safer roads. Almost 33,000 people died in auto accidents in 2014 because frankly, humans kinda suck. We have poor peripheral vision, and even worse regular vision at night or during inclement weather. Our other senses are useless in a car. And, we’re easily distracted by text messaging and phone calls and kids screaming in the back seat and fiddling with the radio controls and having a few drinks.
For its part, Google’s self driving car is bristling with radars, cameras, and lasers that can see in all directions, and far more distant than the human eye. It has a “LIDAR” laser array, with 64 laser beams, that create a 3D map of obstacles as the car makes its way—all to a distance of 200 meters.
A front camera handles close-up objects—pedestrians, bikes, traffic signs, and signals.
An array of four radars, two in front, two in the rear, maintain the car’s position in traffic. Cars with adaptive cruise control already have these, so there’s nothing new about them.
There are ultrasonic sensors that help with things like auto-parking. Some cars today already have these as well.
So that’s just the outside sensors. The car has a bunch more inside that help the car know exactly where it is located in space, which is then integrated with GPS data, so the car knows where it’s at and what’s ahead where it is going, anticipating road conditions around the next bend or over the next hill. Then, the real magic—an artificial intelligence that can take this insane amount of data and convert it into actions that take the car from Point A to Point B, and do so safely. This AI can interpret cyclist, pedestrian, or motorist behavior to ensure safety for everyone in the vicinity of that car.
Is this technology ready for prime time? Tesla’s cars can already take over on highways. Google is still testing and refining. Graphics chips manufacturer NVidia seems to be staking its future on the tech, and is making huge advances of its own. We’re still several years away from truly self-driving cars (and current Tesla hardware doesn’t support full autonomy). But that future is arriving faster than even its proponents expected.
So yes, government should act quickly to establish baseline regulations, because the future is already here. And nothing is stopping the NHTSA from continuing to refine those regulations as real-world conditions require.