The Behavior Research Center continues to find a tight race between Republican Sen. John McCain and Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. This time, the two are tied 42-42; in late January, McCain led 38-37. No numbers were released for the August Arizona GOP primary, where McCain is trying to fend off ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward.
The poll’s demographics don’t make any sense though. BRC has McCain leading with Hispanics by a 50-37 margin. In 2012, Obama carried Arizona Hispanics 74-25: Needless to say, it’s extremely unlikely that McCain could be winning this group while being tied statewide. The geographic breakdowns are also strange. BRC has McCain leading 46-36 in Pima County, the home of Tucson and the second largest county in the state. When McCain was winning re-election 59-35 in 2010, he carried Pima 51-43, and it’s extremely unlikely that he’s wracking up a similar margin there this cycle while only being tied statewide. The two are also deadlocked 42-42 in Maricopa, the state’s dominant county. You would need to look very hard to find a statewide election where Maricopa was more Democratic than Pima.
Unfortunately, we don’t have many other polls here. The only other pollster to release general election numbers in 2016 is the Merrill Poll, which showed McCain ahead 41-40 in March. (Bruce Merrill, the longtime Arizona pollster who conducted that survey, recently died.) Hopefully, some other groups will take a look at Arizona soon to give us a better idea of what’s going on. Daily Kos Elections rates the general as Lean Republican.