Guam specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 7 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Territory encompassing Democratic Party of Guam is affiliated with and participates in Presidential Nomination with National Democratic Party umbrella.
Basic Data: Guam has 7 delegates available. Guam does not having voting representation in Senate or Congress. Guam does not have voting privileges in election of US President. Guam does not have any electoral college votes in general election.
All 7 delegates are awarded as at-large delegates.
Guam does not qualify for PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) delegates.
Democratic Party has included Guam in primary process. All Jurisdictions that do not participate in General elections (American Samoa, Virgin Islands, Northern Marianas, Puerto Rico and Guam) have still been included. Number of delegates is based on population. Puerto Rico has most while the rest have default 6 at-large delegates for the small ones. The extra one is bonus from DNC based on timing of the primary event.
Primary Election Information: Caucus is scheduled for 7 May 2016 (Saturday). It is a closed caucus. Participation is open to registered Democrats only. Unlike other places, this is a single caucus in (location). The caucus votes (with inclusion of absentee votes) will determine the delegate allocations.
Same day registration and affiliation is available. While this may seem like a closed caucus, in operation this is effectively a completely open primary organized by the party. This is due to same day registration and affiliation change provisions.
Guam Democrats have made provisions to widen the participation. These include party sponsored transportation assistance, party sponsored at-home voting for elderly and disabled, absentee voting. Event is being held on a Saturday in order to accommodate more people. Perhaps the fact that people from Guam are effectively disenfranchised from federal election/representation tends to make the Party outlook more inclusive. Caucus is a party sponsored event.
Territory Party is broke. Web presence is just a face-book page (here: https://www.facebook.com/guamdemocrats/).
Recently (and I do mean very recently, domain name and parking has been bought. It will probably be built up slowly over time. Perhaps it might even be operational by the time Primary arrives.) Link here → http://www.guamdemocrats.com/{Link might not display anything yet}.
The secret(ish) not yet publicly released website currently being developed is here http://www.guamdemocrats.com/#!home/crp5{Do not make a fuss about errors and incompleteness of it. It is not publicly officially released yet.}
A very information packed Election commission site here → http://gec.guam.gov/
Voter ID Laws: No Federal Elections take place in Guam. Democrats only Caucus so most likely you probably will not need anything unless you really do not know at least a couple of other people at the caucus to vouch/validate you and cross check against party register. Take some sort of ID and play safe just in case.
Definite ID (Guam Drivers Licence or Guam ID Card) thing will be needed intending to register and affiliate on the same day. This is due to registration requirements by the election commission of Guam.
Early or Absentee Voting In Person: Absentee and at-home caucus ballot provisions in place. Contact party local office.
Absentee Voting by Mail: Contact party local office. Absentee ballot provisions in place.
Democrats From Elsewhere: Registered Democrats from other parts of USA who are temporarily is Guam and would like to participate in caucus are also invited/accepted provided that they can prove they are registered voter and a registered Democtat elsewhere.
Other Elections: Also some party actual elections taking place at the same time including member of DNC from Guam as well as some locality party officials. There are other primaries that are happening later on during the political calendar. Most candidates will be busy trying to expand their support levels during this presidential preference caucus vote and gatherings. This event will provide a good politicking opportunity for future leaders.
Guam Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change (increase) in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. With two districts having odd number of delegates, there are good opportunities for advantages.
{For those interested the DNC formula for fair apportionment, rounded up d=DxM/T, where d= delegates earned, D=total number of Delegates available to be earned, M = Candidates votes, T = Total valid votes}
Delegates ACquired
Out of available
|
7 del
ALl OF GUAM
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
2 del |
21.4 |
3 DEL |
35.7 |
4 del |
50 |
5 del |
64.3 |
6 del |
78.6 |
7 del |
85 |
For 7 Delegates, Awarded on statewide/caucus/ballot result: First two delegates are cheap at 15% and 21.4%. Within the range of 35.7% — 50% the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. To maintain competitiveness, each campaign should be aiming to maintain at least 35.7% vote share and retain a 3 delegates and then slug it out for final odd delegate for an advantage by crossing 50%. This will provide an opportunity to gain delegate advantages.
Just a single count and single allocation from a single ballot event coinciding with caucus.
Next (Rest of) bit is my personal opinion: {Warning: May Contain Nuts And Over Boiled Military Rations.}
Background: Guam, where more than 8% of population is directly employed by the US Armed Forces (All types, navy, army, air), where people can not vote for federal election, where the people that go to die in wars at the order of Commander-In-Chief have no say about how the C-in-C is elected. Modern day anachronistic existence of Guam in an always limbo land. Disenfranchisement of ultimate form, the primary elections are the only part where they might have an influence. Guam does not even have a member of congress. The representative is an ambassadorial and observer role (no voting rights in congress, and is labelled a delegate from Guam).
Guam, makes it to national news in three categories.
1. When some silly politician in US House or Senate makes some stupid comment displaying their utter lack of interest or knowledge. Like that Rep who was worried Guam would tilt and sink if US built any more buildings at the military base. Or Tim Robbins denigrating and making fun of disenfranchisement (Guam not having electoral value in electing Presidents).
2. When there are US military casualties in war in some forsaken foreign land and the injured/dead is from Guam
3. Presidential Primaries come around and some people start adding up Guam delegates to their analysis.
Seriously, when was the last time anyone read about or heard about Guam?
The struggle for Guam to have at least a proper representation is still ongoing.
It is possible that if Republicans were dominant in Territory politics then perhaps Republicans would agree to statehood for Guam (2 Senators to US Senate + 1 US House Rep, and either an increase in US House of representative numbers or a recalculation of all Representative allocations to fit within 435). However that would also mean taking similar and formal stance on American Samoa, Northern Marianas, Virgin Islands. Possibly Washington DC however they have a better support amongst the politicians. (Puerto Rico maybe also, but they had a referendum about statehood a while back).
{Please visit http://www.equalrightsnow.org/ and indicate your appreciation of their efforts and advocate for the disenfranchised. Better still write and ask your senator and representative to take a formal stance and commitment to enabling all the territory nationals to be accorded same rights as all US Citizens.
Some more here http://www.equalrightsnow.org/u_s_citizens_defend_democracy_can_t_vote_for_president}
Factors in play: While there are many factors in play at local politics level, the factors in play for Presidential primaries are dominated by a few.
For federal purposes the dominant factor is always representation quickly followed by veterans healthcare and affairs. Which should be unsurprising.
Representation: This plays in favour of Clinton as Clinton has made previously supporting stances in regard to Guam. Sanders while should have been a natural ally for Guaminians (yes that is the right word) unfortunately has not made the right noises. This is the biggest impacting sentiment in Guam. That Tim Robbins crack about Clinton winning that South Carolina primary being as important as winning Guam in Presidential election did not go down well. The amount of damage to the group attitudes and thoughts have been very hard to repair.
Voting Access: Well everyone can vote and anyone can vote. Normally this plays in favour of Sanders. However in Guam given other sentiments which are in play, this will work against Sanders.
Open Primary: The process is an effective open primary. Voting in primary is open to all Democrats (even if you affiliate on the day itself) As usual this will be a big plus for Sanders. However the sentiment again playing against Sanders.
Early/Absentee Voting: Turnout will be higher as there are ample provisions and support for wider participation. Once again this usually means Clinton advantages due to a organizational advantages.
Veterans / Armed Services And Related: Sanders with his touted VA related big changes and improvements he has caused to happen should have had a very fertile ground here for his support. However with his limited advertisement of messages he has not been able to capitalize on this. Veterans and Armed services related families make more than 50% of voters here with roughly 26% of voters/people actually Veteran or active service personnel. Inability of Sanders campaign to draw upon this well established constituency is going to mean that vote share will not be as high as expected.
Campaign Organization and Events: There is some campaign footprint and presence is here from Sanders, Clinton again behind Sanders in having campaign footprint even informal ones. However Clintons have visited Guam and that always goes down well.
Climate Change: Climate change and impact is a big deal here. Sanders again has not been able to capitalize in what should be his natural constituency.
Department of Interior (Federal Government): Guam is administered under Department of Interior. The department is de-facto and de-jure controller of all affairs of Guam irrespective of what other department might have those responsibility in other states. A push for territory having more say about its own affairs would have been well received. However neither candidates have any specific plans.
So — All these issues and no one paying attention:
Overall I am expecting Clinton to grab at least 70% votes here and pushing hard towards 75%
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Oh and the all information repository about Guam http://www.guampedia.com/
For those you want an inkling about what to expect for those first footsteps into political ladder, here from Kossack Chris Reeves whole series at Nuts and Bolts/history about what and how to run for state legislature. Start at the first article: -We-Learned-Something-Yesterday-What-Democrats-Need-to-Understand-About-the-Nuts-Bolts
Meanwhile have a break from pie fight and join the primary free “Diarydays” efforts and distraction. This is an effort to have a bit of diverse conversations and days away from primary related junk.
List so far at http://www.dailykos.com/news/diarydays some examples listed below.
-A-Diary-a-Day-keeps-the-Pie-Fights-away-DiaryDays by emaglive
-Obama-Administration-to-Forgive-375-000-Student-Loans by wesmorgan1
-Pi-and-Pie-Mathematics-Of-The-Best-Pizza-Deal-DiaryDays oh that is by me,
-My-Growing-up-a-Republican-Story by Sailing Buddha