Puerto Rico specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 60 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Statewide Partido Democrata de Puerto Rico (PDP aka english: Democratic Party of Puerto Rico aka Democratic Party of Commonwealth of Puerto Rico ) is affiliated with and participates in Presidential Nomination with National Democratic Party umbrella.
Basic Data: Puerto Rico has 60 delegates available. Puerto Rico does not have any representation in US Congress due to Puerto Rico being an occupied annexed colony territory and definitely not a state within the Unites States. hence the party has opted to use the Territorial legislative (Senate) districts for the purpose of distributing delegates. Since the territory does not participate in presidential elections, the distribution of delegates is based on Senate district population. There are 8 Senate Districts. So including state-wide allocations PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and at-large delegates, there are 10 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each senate district (SD) are as follows: 4 from SD3, SD4, SD5, SD6, SD7 and 6 from SD2 SD8 and 8 from SD1. Additionally 7 PLEOs and 13 At-large delegates are also available. These however are allocated only from the preference of an assembly of the senate district delegates. The senate district delegates effectively form an electorate college which in turn apportions PLEOs and At-Large delegates.
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 5th June 2016. It is an open primary. Participation is open to everyone who has not already participated in Republican primary.
Same day registration is not available. Voter registration deadline was (50 days before day of election) 16th of April for the primary. There is still time to register to vote in General Election in Territory but as usual you will not be able to vote in actual Federal elections. Primary is the nearest any Puerto Rican comes to having a say in US Presidential selection process.
Election Commission website here → http://ceepur.org/es-pr/Paginas/default.aspx
Territory Government Website here → http://www2.pr.gov/Pages/default.aspx
Territory Democratic Party web presence{well nowhere to be found except maybe facebook https://www.facebook.com/dpcpr/}
The territory party as well as the territory government is doing as much as possible to provide information in both English and Spanish. Default, unsurprisingly, is Spanish. If you do not read/write/understand Spanish then you will still be able to select the English language option in some places.
If you are looking at some government websites or party website and you run into the dreaded “We are working to offer a complete site in both languages.” Be patient (or call your US House Rep and ask them to sort out Puerto Rico or donate money to state party as an alternative to learning Spanish) Of course there is also the fact that even when you select English link the content is Spanish. This is mostly just the website being prepared for future. The territory and party has no money for anything. Just be happy that website is actually running and has not been shut down yet.
Of course if you read/write/speak Spanish or even better (like me) have handily available multilingual children who will translate for you then you will have no problems. {Well perhaps apart from taking an extra time trying to work out how to explain the long Spanish word which vaguely sounds like an English word you know but you are not sure, and the child does not know the word, so you spend a few more minutes looking for it in the dictionary. When you have finally worked out what the word is, then you still have to explain to the ever so helpful child what that word means, and you get distracted into some other conversation about why is it that you can not read and write Spanish, especially considering almost everyone you meet assumes you are Mexican. And the child remembers that you did not want to correct their misconceptions because if you attempt then all you get it, “oh wow but you speak such a good English. I am surprised. How and where did you learn? Did you have a white teacher?”. — Ahh sorry, Got a bee in the bonnet there and carried away}
Voter ID Laws: Puerto Rico has very strict requirements regarding voter id. Valid Photo ID is required for all and is issued by the Government of Puerto Rico.
Early or Absentee Voting In Person: No early voting provisions.
Absentee Voting by Mail: Absentee voting by mail is only available to qualifying voters with valid/acceptable reasons like working for the government away from location or member of armed forces or if an actual election day official.
Double Barrel Primary: Presidential Primary coincides with territory/local primary elections. Local primaries are for territory government/legislature elections only. Puerto Rico has no federal representation in US Congress. Voter turnout is probably going to be a bit higher than normal due to the primaries.
Senate District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change (increase) in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for senatorial districts based allocations are listed below. With none of the districts having odd number of delegates, there has to be a substantial performance in order to achieve an advantage. A total of 40 delegates are elected this way.
{For those interested the DNC formula for fair apportionment, rounded up d=DxM/T, where d= delegates earned, D=total number of Delegates available to be earned, M = Candidates votes, T = Total valid votes}
Delegates ACquired
Out of available
|
4 DEL
SD3 SD4 SD5
SD6 SD7
|
6 del
SD2
SD8
|
8 del
SD1
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
37.5 |
25 |
18.8 |
3 DEL |
62.5 |
41.7 |
31.3 |
4 del |
85 |
58.4 |
43.8 |
5 del |
|
75 |
56.3 |
6 del |
|
85 |
68.8 |
7 del |
|
|
81.3 |
8 del |
|
|
85 |
For 4 Delegates at SD3 SD4 SD5 SD6 SD7: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5 to 62.5 will still have delegates split 2-2. Without a relative 25% difference in support districts still split (2-2). Without a spectacular success exceeding 62.5% this is just going to play at 2-2.
For 6 Delegates at SD2 SD8: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes. Expecting some heavy campaign here for those lucrative advantage breaks. Otherwise we are looking at a straight 3-3 split.
For 8 Delegates at SD1: First two delegates are cheap at 15% and 18.8%. Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. Aim here would be to attempt for 56.3% or better vote share and grab the 2 delegate advantage of 5-3 split.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 18 At-Large delegates and 9 pledged PLEO delegates. The caveat in Puerto Rico is that the statewide category is specifically allocated from the summary results of district based delegates. All the delegates from each of the district form an pre-defined electorate which in turn makes its preference as an electorate in order to allocate At-Large and PLEO delegates. So the stated preference of 40 delegates elected from district based results in turn are used in calculations separately for a statewide selection. Depending on how many of the district delegates a candidate wins will determine how many statewide allocations they get. The triggers still work with the same formula and principle. Each district delegate counts for 2.5% of voting power.
Votes cast in any specific senate district do not count towards statewide results. Any big pocket of support in a specific district will only work towards getting more delegates from that district. It does not confer additional advantages in terms of pushing overall statewide results to cross another trigger.
So perhaps unlike in previous articles, it might be simpler just to look at actual district based delegate numbers and work out the corresponding PLEO and At-Large allocations.
On a side note: The electorate actually electing the PLEOs and At-Large delegates is a completely different set of body made up as “Puerto Rico Assembly Of Democrats” which in turn has 8 electors from each of the 8 senate districts.
{Delegate_Acquired = Available_Delegates x Own_District_Delegates/40}
District Delegates |
6 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
14 |
15 |
17 |
20 |
24 |
Triggers and State-wide Delegates for District Totals Share
PLEOs (7) |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
At-Large Del(13)
|
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
DISTRICT DELEGATES |
26 |
27 |
30 |
32 |
33 |
34 |
Triggers and State-wide Delegates for District Totals Share
PLEOs (7) |
5 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
At-Large Del(13)
|
8 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
For 7 Pledged PLEOs: Emphasis needs to be on grabbing as many district level delegates as possible. The table above shows the trigger points corresponding to the total district level delegates. Overall total votes makes no difference. In order to achieve an advantage, 21 delegates will be needed. In the event of 20-20 district level delegates achieved, we revert to coin flip (although perhaps this tie breaker should have been total statewide votes cast).
For 13 Delegates State-wide (at-large): (See tables above.) Same as for PLEOs above.
Taking all statewide the triggers combined, a solid uniform performance in all districts will be needed to gain advantages. Since all districts have even number of delegates, a substantial shift in support in every district will be needed. However gaining advantage in district delegates in any district will mean that instead of a even split of all districts resulting in (20-20), that extra bit will push through above 20. Thereby gaining an advantage in each of both PLEO and At-Large category. Any push to break past the triggers in any specific district will result in not just an advantage in that district but possibly a bigger advantage in statewide allocations.
Some Casual Scenarios: With so much interest in margins and delegate acquiring numbers, I thought I would add a few numbers and save interested people the hassle of having to do too much detailed mathematics on the fly.
All calculations in the next bit, based on uniform distribution of votes (ie. same proportion of votes in all districts). Vote share percentages based on relative vote share of two candidates. Implied assumptions, there are two qualifying candidates, all others receive less than qualifying (aka viability threshold) votes.
For anyone who wants to verify the numbers:
Step by step, for each state, for each allocation unit ( each district, PLEO, at-large),
delegates_acquired = rounded value of (total_delegates_available x (decimal_vote_share))
where, decimal_vote_share = votes_for_candidate/total_valid_votes
Viability_threshold = higher value of {100/(2 x total_delegates_available) or 15}
Where are the interesting numbers?:
Taking into account the districts based allocations as well as the statewide results, big impact and the most interesting triggers for districts are 56.3% and 58.4%, and 62.5% and 68.8%. These correspond with (8, 6, 4, 8 delegate districts respectively)
Lets See Some Interesting Numbers:
Scraping past 50%: districts (10+6+4) statewide (coin toss limbo 3+6+Coin+Coin). Total 29 vs 29
Scraping past 56.3%: districts (10+6+5) statewide (4+7). Total 32 vs 28
Scraping past 58.4%: districts (10+8+5) statewide (4+7). Total 34 vs 26
Scraping past 62.5%: districts (15+8+5) statewide (5+9). Total 42 vs 18
Scraping past 68.8%: districts (15+8+6) statewide (5+9). Total 43 vs 17
Scraping past 75%: districts (15+10+6) statewide (5+10). Total 46 vs 14
{Uniform distribution is only useful for gauging the levels of supports needed and having something to get a feel about what results would look like. It is normal to see pockets of support or votes for a specific candidate in certain districts or areas. In these cases where a substantial chunk of support is in specific districts then there will be balanced by other districts where the triggers for extra delegates will not have been not crossed. Thus overall gain in delegates will be smaller than in uniform performance. However this being Puerto Rico overall statewide percentages make a diddley squat difference.}
Next (Rest of) bit is my personal opinion: {Warning: May Contain Nuts and Junk Bonds and moral bankruptcy}
So some thoughts on important factors at this primary. There are many other factors not included here.
[Edit: Please read the additional commentary and corrections from Kossacks newpioneer, Lyrios, Denise Oliver Velez amongst others in the comments]
DailyKos Coverage:
Lately the news from Puerto Rico has been about economic crisis. Here are a handful of samples just from DKos storytellers. This -Building-Bridges-Puerto-Rico-Drowning-in-Debt by buildingbridgesradio and this -Wall-Street-Journal-predicts-US-to-be-hit-with-a-wave-of-refuges-From-the-US by Mark Sumner
By the time this is published there probably will be a few more.
Background: {Damn Political Party Acronyms} State politics and national politics are separate things in Puerto Rico. Many people including prominent Democrats make the mistake of confusing the territorial party Democratic Party of Puerto Rico with Popular Democratic Party. This is not the same as Puerto Rico wide Partido Popular Democratico (PPD english: Popular Democratic Party.)
Local politics is dominated by PPD and PNP (Partido Nuevo Progresista english: New Progressive Party. NPP). PPD is more into autonomy and free association while PND is more into statehood. There are other smaller parties with the green/environmentalist equivalents as well as independence focused parties. The territorial parties have no national agenda or equivalent ideological partners that fully aligns with them.
On a national stage members of both PPD and PND freely and separately affiliate themselves with Democratic Party and Republican Party. The affiliation with Democrats is higher. National affiliation overlaps and encompasses both local parties.
Example: the Governor of Puerto Rico, Alejandro García Padilla, who is a member of both PDP and PPD and is head of PPD. However the head of PDP is Roberto Prat who also happens to be member of PPD and PPD governing body. They are both super delegates due to their Democratic Party affiliations. Other notable example is Kenneth McClintock who is a member of PNP (was also at one time secretary of state for Puerto Rico and some other time President of Puerto Rico Senate) is also at the same time affiliated with Democratic Party while also being on the governing body of PNP.
Popular Democrats Party tend to have more of their members also affiliated with National democratic Party. Politically Puerto Rico as a whole is to the very left if you discount the sovereignty question.
Sovereignty Status:
Federal government interference in local administration where federal laws apply but local population has no means of participation has been a bug bear for long time.
The question of statehood/autonomy/independence/free association has been here for a long time and gone through multiple referenda. This is a veritable minefield for upsetting whole island without any political payback. So unsurprisingly politicians from outside of territory tend to ignore the whole thing and not upset anyone by declaring “Self-determinism: Puerto Rico has to decide for itself”.
Republicans although preferring statehood have been reluctant to weigh in into the fray as the territory is heavily Democrat leaning from other issues and thus likely to elect 2 Senators and however many US House Reps who all all Democrats.
Democrats also prefer statehood for the same reasons but once again not wanting to upset the rest of the political calculus by weighing in into what is a very divisive issue in Puerto Rico and Puerto Rico diaspora. Especially since Puerto Ricans in any other state can vote and thus might swing elections. Meanwhile they have been a reliable bank of votes without the statehood question hanging overhead.
Ongoing Economic Crisis: legislative habit in USA is utterly deplorable where completely unrelated elements are inserted into legislation as means of stopping it. So we end up with just as an example, in a completely unrelated US House Bill to do with military spending on missiles, some whack job inserts two lines of text saying Monsanto can sue farmers if any of Monsanto engineered plants accidentally fertilize the flowers in a farmers field simply because some other farmer had Monsanto plan on their farm. And now poor farmer has to pay Monsanto because all his crops have been contaminated with Monsanto. What the hell has approval for buying 20 missiles from Lockheed Martin and Raytheon got to do with Monsanto seed crap?
So similarly Puerto Rico has been left out of some lists or included in some other list in finance related regulations, thereby currently blocking any effective path to recovery and being left without a recourse to organize its debts. Sure some politicians screwed up big time when they borrowed heavily to spend on infrastructure, but could not reap the benefit of the said infrastructure because someone somewhere inserted some other crap paragraph into some other Bill and industries suddenly closed and all the long term planning of infrastructure and recoup costs went down the toilet.
US Congress interference and its inability to take into account long term planning, take into account implications of new policies on local levels has meant that legislature has been playing fast and loose with Puerto Rico.
Not being accorded the same level of protection and ability to restructure debts like other states and being deliberately excluded from such legislative provisions has meant Puerto Rico is now just barely servicing its population with governance. Every little bit of dust goes into repayment. Schools be damned, hospitals be damned, bridges be damned, roads be damned.
Populist events of course have not helped either. For example some populist politicians decided to offer heavily subsidized electricity to everyone without a single thought of how that discount was going to be paid for.
John Oliver of the The Last Week Tonight fame had an awesome programme on recently. → http://www.hbo.com/last-week-tonight-with-john-oliver/episodes/3/69-april-24-2016/video/ep-69-clip-puerto-rico.html?autoplay=false I apologise to those who are not able to open this. Perhaps someone with better link would post one on the comments.
Hedge Funds and Wall Street Vultures: Main groups profiteering from the crisis are as usual Hedge Funds and Wall Street. With all the economic crisis that has been going on the electorate should be receptive to Bernie Sanders message: “Wall Street Bad, Hedge Fund Evil”. However as usual Sanders has not been able to capitalize on this such an apt and match made in heaven electorate for his message. Where as in normal circumstances a politician with his message that is a perfect match for the population would be expected to overwhelmingly win support. Sanders has been suffering from lack of visible plan to actually ease the situation. Whereas Clinton is seen as someone who would actually do something about it even if it is not something they want done and the medicine might just be too bitter. Advantage Sanders.
PDP Ideology: PDP ideology is as close to communist/socialist as you can get in USA. The territory party is an ideological match for Bernie Sanders. A substantial chunk Party infrastructure and apparatus has been attempting to promote Bernie Sanders. Due to cross affiliation between Popular Democrats and Democratic Party, this means that Sanders gets a very decisive upper hand. The dominance of the socialists has resulted in modifications to delegate selection process rules whereby any Clinton advantages in specific districts due to large population and large shares (San Juan) do not go onto affect the number of delegates that are accorded on statewide basis. Once of the amended features by the Territory Democratic Party delegate selection plan. Unfortunately PDP itself is suffering from discontent within its ranks. A bit of a role reversal here for Bernie Sanders where he is the candidate preferred by the apparatus and establishment. This counts as a big double plus for Sanders. As usual there is factional fighting taking place with regards to style and ideology which should be interesting in the local primaries.
The sliver of good news for Clinton is that her long term allies are still with her. The resiliency of her core base seems still robust.
Internal migrations: Population of the territory has been in severe decline due to migration to mainland. This again is due to the economic pressures. While this plays well for Democrats in places where Puerto Ricans decide to settle, nevertheless this is a symptom of something very much amiss. The fall out is more likely to have more effect on local politics than in presidential primary.
Cultural Identity and Uniqueness: One of the drawbacks on political status change of the territory has been the fear of loss of cultural identity. Uniqueness of Puerto Rico that comes with its very much mixed and disruptive history is seen as something to be preserved and maintained against the cultural vandals. While population is not content with its current political status they have nevertheless been unable to agree to other limited political solutions which mostly seem to be aimed at eroding what it means to be Puerto Rican by different and intermingled groups. The disagreements span across all strata of society and often with conflicting goals even within small groups.
The crisis is not just about economy although yes the economy is playing a big part. Crisis is also about cultural identity, worries about absorption into USA leading to loss of identity, while at the same time not being fully able to let go of the American citizenship which does confer a few things which would not be available under independence. so instead of good things, people have had to contend with what is effectively a dysfunctional failed banana republic within USA. If this was a different country USA probably would have already intervened. Instead now it is just a colony being exploited.
Other Usual Factors in play: Some factors in play probably have higher impact. I have listed a few here. Please add your factors in comments.
Photo ID Laws: These laws have been in place for long enough time. They have neither helped nor managed to suppress vote rigging. Both political party supporters have been embroiled in rigging operations before. The voter turn out will not be impacted by ID laws.
Open Primary: The process is a completely open primary. Does not matter how the voters are registered and affiliated or not as the case might be. The affiliation is utterly meaningless here in terms of voting. Self declaration of not having participated in Republican primary is enough. As far as 2016 primary election goes, Sanders generally has an advantage in open primary. The advantage is that everyone will be able to vote, so any last few days pull from anywhere will be able to cast their votes for Sanders without any hurdles. Clinton is unlikely to be attracting that many in the last few days. Most Clinton supporters will already have made up their mind well before the time and made whatever provisions to cast their ballots.
Early/Absentee Voting: No provisions for early voting and limited provisions for absentee voting. Impact on turnout will be negligible as this has been the stable state of electoral affairs at the territory. Clinton advantages due to a long term and historical support, organizational advantages disappear completely.
Insufficient Advertising of Participation Information: As the myth goes a substantial chunk of electorate still is not aware that they are able to participate in presidential primaries. The myth busting has to wait for another article at some point. This is however just an utter hogwash. A general level of lack of information is comparable to other states. Substantially more politically active people are aware in Puerto Rico about exactly what they can and can not vote for. General population is acutely aware of their lack of representation. {Damn it I need to find English sources for this from Puerto Rico media}. As a comparative figure, out of population of 3.9 Million, registered voters of 2.4 Million a total of roughly Four hundred thousand participated in Democratic Party primary in 2008. This 20% participation in primary is a lot higher than most places. Other election turnout is also higher.
Demographics: Traditional mainland Demographics are once again utterly meaningless as far as Puerto Rico is concerned. For the sake of completeness this data is included. (non-hispanic) White 6.5%, Hispanic 80.5%, Black 8.5%, Native American 0.5%. Due to Puerto Rico many centuries long collective trauma and colonial status, mainland issues become either irrelevant to Puerto Rico or they become a detriment.
Since the territory has absolutely zero political clout in US Government and legislature, most politicians pay no heed to Puerto Rico. Perhaps less than a handful nationally minded might be aware of Puerto Rico or even consider Puerto Rico in their operations. There are no gains to be had by considering or even inserting yourself in Puerto Rico politics. Any fall out or comeback will be from Puerto Rican diaspora who might happen to be in the constituency of congressional district a politician represents.
Apart from perhaps a luxury boat or two worth of rich people ( the ones who are equally at home where ever their money can insulate them from everything else) everyone else is Puerto Rican first and foremost. Other social and cultural and economic local effects take priority over everything else.
Campaign Efforts/Organization: Sanders ideological sympathy campaign has been around from the beginning. A bulk of ideological Popular Democrats elites have been firmly behind Sanders. Sanders campaign has once again not been able to capitalize on the bulk intellectual support available from ideological partners. Sanders is the definitive ideological representative of Popular Democrats Party and as such has the establishment support. However the campaign has been hampered by political hedging by career politicians who are a bit wary of upsetting population locally as they themselves are fighting a popular discontent amongst the electorate. As usual the campaign has totally ignored the fact that there are other political parties and organizations in the Territory. They have forgotten that Popular Democrats are actually not the Democratic party even if there is very large overlap due to dual affiliations.
Clinton on the other hand has a very stable and long term political network in the Territory. Even though a formal presence has not been so quick, the informal network as stayed put. The local campaign team once again has plenty of old hands from 2008 campaign as well as a whole slew of new injections. The team has been vigorously putting aside the dreaded sovereignty question aside and instead focused on ensuring that both camps and both local parties have a presence in the campaign and political network. Expecting a large number of New Progressives party to flock to Clinton. There is definitely some sort of long term political objective being worked on here. Sadly I have not been able to devote time to analysing it without sufficiently Puerto Rico insider knowledge.
Territory Local Primaries Effect: With the all in Primary taking place at Territorial level, participation will be a lot higher. This will probably help Clinton more as proportionally larger chunk of New Progressive Party will be coming out to vote for her. National party agenda take a complete back seat to local party agenda.
Economy, Job Losses To Other Countries, Employment: On a message platform the economic messages and job losses should play very well for Sanders here. The trade deals association should hurt Clinton.
Bankruptcy Protection Legislation: Given that Bernie Sanders is a co sponsor of extending Bankruptcy legislation to include Puerto Rico, it is a bragging plus point for Sanders. However the hidden undercurrent of sovereignty issues and sentiments have factions in all parties which seem to think that if Bankruptcy protection is extended to Puerto Rico then sovereignty will be compromised and thus are against bankruptcy protection as means of negotiation with federal government an end to current sovereignty status. While it should have had a better response and numbers to reflect vote share, that will be mitigated by the actual target electorate who would accept this message being smaller.
Puerto Rico Pandering: Bernie Sanders has a whole section of campaign literature devoted to Puerto Rico. While lacking in details the content itself is very appealing and emotive. If this content could somehow get itself to Puerto Rico it would definitely have a suitably improving effect on his performance. Sadly as usual the lack of attention to detail is visible in terms of most of material being available only in English and where Spanish versions are available they lack a certain quality. There is a difference between a bilingual and a bilingual linguist. However a definitely plus on the efforts belated that maybe.
So far apart from making statements in solidarity of sentiment, Sanders campaign has surprisingly not planned for Puerto Rico in time. A timely planning had the potential to deliver results that would have dwarfed Vermont performance. Late efforts are still better than no efforts.
On the other hand Clintons have a long history with Puerto Rico. Some blame Clinton for the see-saw of economic boom and subsequent bust. Visit by Hillary Clinton, during her FLOTUS days, to share in the communal grieving after hurricane devastated the island. Multiple visits after as well as all Clinton campaigning hard in 2008. The pay off in terms of allies and baseline popular support levels is still high.
However as with other things Clinton brings hope of some action on the issues irrespective. The worry that the action that will be put forward will not be to Puerto Rico political elite is dampening institutional support.
FALN Pardons: I doubt anyone actually remembers or cares what FALN pardons were. FALN (A Puerto Rican paramilitary organization seeking independence, sedition whatever from USA) were responsible for a series of bombs and and things in mainland USA as a part of their freedom for Puerto Rico blah blah blah.. insert usual independence doctrine.. methods.. People were caught and sentenced. Many based on guilt by association. Naturally these were Puerto Ricans
Bill Clinton Pardoned and commuted a whole heap of them and their sentences in his final year as president. This earned him a censure and condemnation from US House and US Senate. In Puerto Rico however, the pardons as act of clemency had a long term impact. Subsequent censure and condemnation of Clinton earned them a lot of stable sympathy from Puerto Rico.
That Guam and Tim Robbins Thing: Ah yes that thing. Unintended consequences of hurting disenfranchised people is that you bring to light the plight of other disenfranchised people in the same sympathy block. Sadly that Guam thing is not just a Guam thing, it is also a Puerto Rico thing despite the disparate geography.
District by District:
Usually at this point I add in my district by district analysis. However today I think I will just summarize to avoid repeating 8 identical paragraphs. Hillary Clinton will do extremely well across all 8 senatorial districts earning at least 65% of the votes in each district and in district 1 exceeding 75%.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
For those you want an inkling about what to expect for those first footsteps into political ladder, here from Kossack Chris Reeves whole series at Nuts and Bolts/history about what and how to run for state legislature.