When trying to assess Donald Trump’s policy views on science, we run into the same dilemma we face in every other aspect of his unlikely ascendancy: He doesn’t have any. The presumptive Republican nominee’s views change at the drop of a hat depending on what group he is courting at the time—and which one he is beating up on. But when it comes to science, he just hasn’t said much.
When he does say something and gets called on it, he typically changes the subject or plays dumb. When asked about his claim the Chinese invented climate change, he pulled what is rapidly becoming his usual evasion tactic, saying he was just joking:
"I think that climate change is just a very, very expensive form of tax. A lot of people are making a lot of money. I know much about climate change," Trump said. "I've received many environmental awards. And I often joke that this is done for the benefit of China — obviously I joke — but this done for the benefit of China." … Trump has for years used words like "hoax," "canard," "mythical," "con job," "nonexistent," and "bulls---" to reject mainstream climate science.
But if we take Trump at his word on the stump, he is either smarter than everyone else on the planet, or he pays really smart people to agree with him. Make the jump and we’ll talk.
There’s nothing about being a successful hotel-casino developer that precludes someone from being a visionary on any aspect of science or innovation. There’s a hotel zillionaire right now who has put a $250 million of his own money into developing inflatable habitats for future astronauts to use on missions near and far. But his name is not Donald Trump.
There are billionaires busy creating a revolution in the auto industry, in clean energy, and in broadband access. Some even hope to mine asteroids and comets. But none of them are named Trump, either.
When it comes to actually investing in technology that might change the world, Donald Trump and his purported billions are conspicuously absent. Would a President Trump set a different course than private citizen Trump has followed his entire life, up until now?
Based on the few offhand statements Trump has made, we might be rightfully worried that his critical thinking skills are infantile or nonexistent. He wouldn’t be the first president to suffer from this shortcoming, but with Trump it seems even worse than usual. He is prone to bizarre conspiracy theories:
He is utterly ignorant of the physics and geochemistry that informs climate science, for example, yet in one empty boast after another he not only implies he knows more about it than all the researchers who spend their entire lives studying the subject—he seems to expect the rest of the nation to take his word for it.
The reality is, Trump doesn’t seem to have what the late Carl Sagan called a working baloney detection kit. Like so many politicians, and especially so many on the right these days, he doesn’t seem to grasp the most fundamental idea of what science is or how it actually works. But what sets Trump apart from others in that mold is the degree to which he appears to be completely unaware of the depth of his ignorance or the implications it holds for a nation whose defense, economy, and future are all critically dependent on the applications that flow from science. When commenting on our biggest engine for innovation, NASA, Trump slithered all over the place, praising the agency and simultaneously voicing the standard dodge about problems that need attention here on Earth:
In brief, Trump said that NASA "has been one of the most important agencies in the United States government for most of my lifetime" and he wants it to remain that way. But in response to a question about whether the United States is spending the proper amount of money on NASA, he demurred: "I am not sure that is the right question. What we spend on NASA should be appropriate for what we are asking them to do. ... Our first priority is to restore a strong economic base to this country. Then, we can have a discussion about spending. ... but we have to fix our potholes."
We choose to go to the moon! We choose to go to the moon and do those other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard … but first we have to fix our potholes? JFK he is not.
So for now, we have little idea what Trump’s science policy would be, other than it sounds short-sighted. His science goals, assuming he has any, are a mystery. Your guess is as good as mine.
Given the way he sort of gloms onto whatever is dominating the news cycle, his goal today could be downright wacky, his ideas next week and the week after constantly shifting. And when it comes to matters of public health or disaster preparation, where wise decisions have to be made based on competent analysis of hard, scientific data with real lives and the real welfare of citizens in the balance, well ... maybe he would rise to the task at hand. Or that might be the week he’s off on some nutty tangent about vaccines or UN chemtrails to shore up his approval rating with one or another wack-job constituency.
That’s the risk you take when a president 1) cannot distinguish between pseudo-scientific nonsense and actual science, or 2) just doesn’t give a hoot because the only important thing is that it’s all show business.
Given a GOP win in November and Trump as the walking, talking embodiment of the Dunning-Kruger effect, that weakness could translate into a presidential investigation into the Apollo moon landing hoax—or what really happened at Roswell.
But hey, lighten up Trump supporters. Where’s your sense of humor? I’m just joking.