This edition marks the transition to the general election. The next edition will cover that more extensively. But first a perfunctory housekeeping on the primary.
No surprise on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is the victor after a strong challenge by Bernie Sanders as predicted. Sanders is vowing to keep going and make a big convention floor fight. Some Clinton Campaign surrogates believe this will weaken her for the general election but I'm of the view that it doesn't matter one way or the other. Almost all Democrats and Democratic leaners will vote for her in November. There are Sanders supporters who perhaps feel they have some sort of leverage over Clinton or the Democratic Party establishment but this is a mistake as well. If President Obama weren't sitting in the White House, perhaps there could be a case for some leverage for the loser. But with a popular sitting President there, Sanders isn't a factor in the general election and therefore doesn't have much in the way of power, floor fight or not. Clinton will be the nominee, Democrats will vote for her. The end.
I'm a father of daughters. It is a historic development for women in America and an extraordinary achievement. She is the first woman to win the nomination of a great American political party. For every woman in America, believe that you can make it to the top in America with hard work, perseverance, and a lot of luck. That is what Hillary Clinton has achieved. Following the historic nomination of Barack Obama in 2008, the first black person to do so, it is clear the Democratic Party is making another statement in the 21st Century about what kind of country we want to be. A country where everyone who isn't a white man has a shot too. Native, Latino, and Asian Americans, your turn is coming! The Democratic Party is YOUR PARTY!
The big surprise is that Donald Trump of all people has become the Republican nominee. I suppose I should not be shocked, as he has led the public and media polls since the moment he announced. Still, it is absolutely a shocking development for a great national party to have a man like Donald Trump be put forward as a national leader. Donald Trump has never been a military commander or served at any level of government. He is a truly unique candidate. He also makes a statement about the country we have become, possibly to our detriment: Ignorant of facts; Obsessed with celebrity; Dismissive of science, experience and expertise. Movement conservatives, the intellectuals who have been the guiding light of the Republican Party since the advent of Reagan are absolutely terrified of Trump as he could care less about ideas of any kind including conservative ones. But they can't stop him because he stole their voters. The country clubbers, who continued to provide the candidates for the Republican Party even during the Reagan ascent, are naturally disgusted that a man like Trump could be elected president. The Bush family has decided to skulk into obscurity and good riddance. Even Republicans have had enough of that family running the country into the ground. Finally, the religious extremists are stunned. Not only have they watched their cultural war see defeat after defeat, but now they've been beaten by their own team. Even the GOP national security establishment of warmongers is in shock at Trump!
In the end, however, I believe the 'civil war' is overblown and all these various groups will vote for Trump. I'm mildly amused by all the sturm and drang coming from them now. In the end, the calculation will come down to a simple one: we can either fight about this out of power or fight about this with power. I suspect they'll choose with power. Mainly because the Republican Party is still the white guys first party and they all share that belief in common. Including its few Republican women and supporters of color. However, Trump's big weakness is also the reason he's the nominee: He's uniquely unsuitable for the office he seeks. That should be enough to ensure his defeat.
Still, we don't have a popular vote to choose a president. We have an electoral college system. I suspect the Trump vote will be strong where it matters and that should make for a closer election than most Democrats are expecting now. More on that in the next edition.