Sanders supporters have spent months trying to reach Clinton supporters on the risk to the Party in November, if the November vote isn’t viewed (at least in part) through the lens of the vast, unprecedented numbers of self-identified “independent voters”.
PEW Research Center from April 7, 2015:
The share of independents in the public, which long ago surpassed the percentages of either Democrats or Republicans, continues to increase. Based on 2014 data, 39% identify as independents, 32% as Democrats and 23% as Republicans. This is the highest percentage of independents in more than 75 years of public opinion polling.
Nate Silver lays out the problem in clear, easy to understand language at FiveThirtyEight.com today (May 19, 2016), with this piece entitled The Hidden Importance of the Bernie Sanders Voter, subtitled Many of them are independents, and they could be key to Clinton’s general election success.
He begins by setting the stage —
Donald Trump has gained on Hillary Clinton in recent national polls after becoming the presumptive GOP nominee this month. But Trump may also be helped by the ongoing primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Although Clinton’s substantial lead in pledged delegates (and larger lead in overall delegates) makes her the all-but-certain Democratic nominee, her lack of support from Sanders voters is harming her general election numbers.
So that we’re clear here, Nate’s link is not linking to some Sanders-crazed pollster with a one-off poll showing Trump ahead of Clinton. This is a look at polls from six sources, two of which put Trump ahead of the “all-but-certain Democratic nominee” in the April 28 to May 18 timeframe. These are recent polls.
He goes on to point out just how he sees these Independent voters and why he views them as of critical import to a Clinton November victory.
There’s a key twist, though, in tracking how Sanders voters are affecting Clinton’s general election prospects. Unless you break out the numbers for Sanders voters specifically, as YouGov does, you may miss their importance.
Overall throughout the primaries and caucuses, I estimate, Clinton is beating Sanders by 27 percentage points among self-identified Democrats but losing to Sanders by 31 points among voters who call themselves independents but voted in the Democratic primaries. [1] This might be confusing because we usually think of independent voters as being moderate. Sanders voters, however, are definitely to the left of Clinton, but a lot of them don’t like to call themselves Democrats.
[1] These national estimates are weighted for the turnout in each state. They also adjust for the fact that the states where exit polls have been conducted have been slightly more favorable for Clinton than the Democratic electorate as a whole.
That is a math problem for Clinton in November.
27% of 32% < 31% of 40%
Exit polls have been conducted in 27 primary and caucus states so far, and Clinton has won among voters who identify as Democrats in all but Vermont, New Hampshire and Wisconsin (where she tied Sanders). But she’s won self-identified independents only in Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi.
Should she emerge from the national convention in late July as the Nominee of the Party, she’ll have to find a way to reach those voters, or they’ll stay home or vote Trump.
Saying they are horrible people is not the way to do that.
UPDATE:
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