New Jersey specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 126 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Statewide New Jersey Democratic Party is affiliated with and participates in Presidential Nomination with National Democratic Party umbrella.
Basic Data: New Jersey has 126 delegates available. There are 12 Congressional Districts. However unlike other states (and a bit similar to Texas) New Jersey Democratic Party allocated delegates based on a paired legislative districts. So instead of 9 congressional districts based delegate awarding units there are effectively 20 Delegate awarding units (aka Delegate Districts in party documents). Each delegate awarding unit made up of district two state legislative districts (LD), pairing an odd numbered district with the district number that follows it. In cases where A special salute to the cartographer involved who has managed to achieve map where each legislative district number is actually a neighbouring/geographically contiguous with the next number.
{So LD1and LD2 make Delegate awarding unit Delegate District1, LD3 and LD4 make Delegate District 2 and so on and on until all 40 Legislative districts are covered. More on this quirk and its impact later on in the story.}
Distribution of 126 Delegates amongst the Delegate Districts are based on an averaging formula that uses population, number of registered Democrats, number of votes for Democratic Party candidate in last two General elections (one presidential + 1 governor), number of votes in last two presidential elections. {If anyone really wants the formula let me know and I will post it in comments. The formula for New Jersey skews more in favour of presidential election votes. In most states the skew ,if present, is in favour of governors election participation.}
So including state-wide allocations PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and at-large delegates, there are 22 different delegate allocation units. The district based allocations are all one of the 3, 4 or 5 delegates. Additionally 14 PLEOs and 28 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results. With 8 out of 22 allocation units having an odd number of delegates substantial opportunity for delegate advantages exist.
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 7th June 2016. Participation is open to all registered Democrats and Unaffiliated voters. Small party enrolment/registration will not allow participation in Democratic Party primary. If unaffiliated voter then the Party affiliation records are changed are set to the requested primary ballot.
Same day registration is not available. Voter registration deadline was 20 days before the primary. (May 17th last day). There is still time to register to vote in General Election.
Party affiliation switching deadline is 55 days before the election. (April 13th 2016). So it is well past it now.
New Jersey Democratic Party website, the usual generic stuff → http://www.njdems.org/ Do not be surprised if it does not look like they are paying attention to presidential primary. State parties have state agenda and state party priorities to deal with. This is normal. The apparent Chris Christie obsession is because of his official status as New Jersey Governor.
The state party website has a fairly decent election specific section http://www.njdems.org/vote which has a beautiful FAQ section http://www.njdems.org/voter_faq that probably is worth other state parties checking to see what might be worth duplicating. This is one of the few easier to find information state party websites. Probably because unlike other state parties New Jersey is one of the handful of state party that actually has money and a fairly decent balance.
Official state government election authority website http://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/index.html is a lot simpler and easier to find information compared to most of other state governments. My favourite bit is always the detailed voter registration statistics and past results.
Voter ID Laws: New Jersey has very lax requirements regarding voter id. ID is not needed.
Valid ID is required only if correct voter ID was not submitted during registration or the data submitted could not be verified and you still turned up to vote but registration records say missing ID. Just about anything is acceptable as valid ID. List of acceptable ID from secretary of state specifically declares that the list is not a limiting list, instead they are some of the things amongst many others that will be accepted. List specifically states, driver license, any student ID or even store card, usual bills, any official paper/letter with name and address etc etc etc. acceptable. Unlike fully Republican run states which have enacted restrictive list, New Jersey has an inclusive but not limited list.
Absentee Voting by Mail: Absentee voting by mail is available on application. These are unconditional voting by mail. No excuses or reasons needed. Ballots started going out in mail from 23rd April 2016 to those that requested them. Deadline for requesting mail in ballot is 7 days before the election. Mail in ballots can still be requested/applied for until 31st May 2016.
Early or Absentee Voting In Person: In person early voting available. They just give you the mail in ballot but this has to be handed in person (can also be collected, filled out and submitted at the same time if preferred) if you have missed the mail in application deadline.
Double Barrel Primary: Presidential Primary coincides with state/local primary elections. Local primaries include US House seats. All incumbents have challengers. {okay so some of the challengers might not actually be serious and in some cases just doing it for a bet}
Voting is so damn easy in New Jersey that I would have expected a higher turnout rates in elections. Perhaps something else is also at play.
District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change (increase) in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. With two districts having odd number of delegates, there are good opportunities for advantages.
{For those interested the DNC formula for fair apportionment, rounded up d=DxM/T, where d= delegates earned, D=total number of Delegates available to be earned, M = Candidates votes, T = Total valid votes}
Delegates ACquired
Out of available
|
3 DEL
DD7 DD13
|
4 DEL
DD1 DD2 DD5 DD6
DD9 DD10 DD12 DD14
DD16 DD17 DD19 DD20
|
5 del
DD3 DD4 DD8
DD11 DD15 DD18
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
16.7 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
50 |
37.5 |
30 |
3 DEL |
83.4 |
62.5 |
50 |
4 del |
|
85 |
70 |
5 del |
|
|
85 |
For 3 Delegates at DD7 DD13: The first delegate is very cheap to acquire with just 16.7% votes. second delegate available to whoever manages to get more than 50% votes. That final delegate requires a whopping 83.3% votes. Unless the poll numbers are literally hovering around 50% marker, this place is unlikely to see much action.
For 4 Delegates at DD1 DD2 DD5 DD6 DD9 DD10 DD12 DD14 DD16 DD17 DD19 DD20: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5 to 62.5 will still have delegates split 2-2. Without a relative 25% difference in support districts still split (2-2). Without a spectacular success this is just going to play at 2-2. A play for higher percentage share of statewide votes might still bring candidates putting in a lot of effort here. Not for district gains but for statewide gains.
For 5 Delegates at DD3 DD4 DD8 DD11 DD15 DD18: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is nicely balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split is a bit too demanding. These eight districts become very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a favourable 3-2 split. Successfully breaking all these districts will give an 8 delegate advantage straight away. These 5 delegate awarding districts will be fought over hard locally.
District Based Delegate Allocation New Jersey Quirks: Instead of having 12 Congressional districts with delegate allocations spread out between 6 and 10 delegates, state party has opted to base 20 delegate allocation units on state legislative districts. As mentioned before an odd numbered district is paired with the next even number up to make up a delegate district. This has meant that the number of delegate allocation units are higher and the number of delegates per unit is lower. This has an effect of exaggerating the impact of small differences around the 50% level. Thus in a competitive primary give a resounding delegate number advantages to the person who is slightly ahead. However at the same time the thresholds that apply to these mean that a substantially higher winning margin is needed to achieve the next level of triggers. Large margin wins tend to be same result as a small margin win. Winning with 51% vote support is not any different from winning with 61% support. For anything to actually register a difference in delegate numbers from 50.1% a 62.5% or better performance is needed.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 28 At-Large delegates and 14 pledged PLEO delegates. Statewide winner will only get delegate advantage if the vote share exceeds the trigger for additional delegate. Due to large(ish) number of delegates small changes are enough to trigger additional delegate allocations.
The tables below show an “interesting” range of triggers together with corresponding delegate numbers in each category. The triggers are all listed together with corresponding number of delegates in each category at that trigger point. {Another place where counter-intuitive mathematics at play here. While 28 is exactly 2 times 14, the trigger points however do not line up neatly with each other.}
Vote Share% |
15 |
16.1 |
37.5 |
39.3 |
41.1 |
44.7 |
46.5 |
48.3 |
51.8 |
53.6 |
55.4 |
Triggers and State-wide Delegates for Vote% Share
PLEOs (14) |
2 |
2 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
At-Large Del(28)
|
4 |
5 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
Vote Share% |
59 |
60.8 |
62.5 |
66.1 |
67.9 |
69.7 |
Triggers and State-wide Delegates for Vote% Share
PLEOs (14) |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
At-Large Del(28)
|
17 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
For 14 Pledged PLEOs: Roughly 7.1% votes translate to 1 delegate. At the viability 15% vote share 2 Delegates are acquired. third very cheap at 17.9%. Each subsequent delegate from then on at 7.1% increments. between the whole range of 46.5% and 53.6% these delegates split even (7-7). Advantageous delegate split occur only at 53.6%.
For 28 Delegates State-wide (at-large): (See tables above.) Because of a high number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Results should reflect the similar percentages. The extra delegates achieving triggers are listed above. Roughly 3.6% votes translates to 1 delegate. Crossing 15% threshold gives a starting point of 4 delegates. Fifth delegate is cheap at 16.1%. Subsequently every 3.6% gives an extra delegate. Between 48.3% and 51.8% delegates are split evenly (14-14). Crossing the 51.8% votes statewide awarding advantageous (15-13)split.
From the statewide results there are only four triggers in the range of 50-60% that result in shifting a delegate. A substantially robust results are needed to have any meaningful advantages in terms of delegate numbers.
A small chunk of the advantages will be on district based results of odd number of delegate awarding districts. For a substantial advantages those 4 delegate awarding districts need to be won with (3-1) delegate splits which takes individually 62.5% support.
Some Casual Scenarios: With so much interest in margins and delegate acquiring numbers, I thought I would add a few numbers and save interested people the hassle of having to do too much detailed mathematics on the fly.
All calculations in the next bit, based on uniform distribution of votes (ie. same proportion of votes in all districts). Vote share percentages based on relative vote share of two candidates. Implied assumptions, there are two qualifying candidates, all others receive less than qualifying (aka viability threshold) votes.
For anyone who wants to verify the numbers:
Step by step, for each state, for each allocation unit ( each district, PLEO, at-large),
delegates_acquired = rounded value of (total_delegates_available x (decimal_vote_share))
where, decimal_vote_share = votes_for_candidate/total_valid_votes
Viability_threshold = higher value of {100/(2 x total_delegates_available) or 15}
Where are the interesting numbers?: Trigger at 50% in 3 and 5 delegate awarding districts are basic stuff of whoever has more gets one extra. There are 8 of these districts.
Taking into account the districts based allocations as well as the statewide results, big impact and the most interesting triggers are 62.5% and 70% and 83.5%. These correspond with (4, 5 and 3 delegate districts respectively)
from statewide results there are few other minor trigger points of switching single delegates sporadically spread across the whole range.
Lets See Some Interesting Numbers:
Scraping past 50%: districts (4+24+18) statewide (7+14). Total 67 vs 59
Just under 62.5%: districts (4+24+18) statewide (9+17). Total 72 vs 54
Scraping past 62.5%: districts (4+36+18) statewide (9+18). Total 85 vs 41
Just under past 70.0%: districts (4+36+18) statewide (10+20). Total 88 vs 38
Scraping past 70.0%: districts (4+36+24) statewide (10+20). Total 94 vs 32
Next big changes are at 83.5% with two extra delegates from 3 delegate districts and 85% for a complete clean slate of all delegates.
{Uniform distribution is only useful for gauging the levels of supports needed and having something to get a feel about what results would look like. It is normal to see pockets of support or votes for a specific candidate in certain districts or areas. In these cases where a substantial chunk of support is in specific districts then there will be balanced by other districts where the triggers for extra delegates will not have been not crossed. Thus overall gain in delegates would be smaller than in uniform performance. }
Next (Rest of) bit is my personal opinion: {Warning: May Contain Nuts which is decidedly a lot better than corruption if you are not allergic. If allergic I would opt for the corruption and no nuts. Aha that is the secret to New Jersey politics. Many nut allergies.}
Background: While the state recently tilts towards Democrats in Presidential Elections, the state however with very reliable constancy elects republicans to federal offices (US House delegation is half Republican) and statewide offices. State government itself and the legislature being Democratic leaning is a recent thing. Previously the state was reliably Republican before 2001.
What else? oh yes state synonymous with Corruption Corruption Corruption (and a few sprinkled Casino Casino) at least according to my family who live there.
It does not get any easier with the interchangeable Emmas and indistinguishable Toms who run for things in NJ. Occasionally one or two blossom forth into brightness. At the risk of upsetting people
I have not done a detailed district based look at the state. mainly lack of time to sort through the chaff and mostly to avoid fights with my own family. Must remember not to say NJ is a NY spillover in family events.
Factors in play: Some factors in play probably have higher impact. I have listed a few here. Please add your factors in comments.
Democratic Party Complacency: For most part the state party while actually flush with money still does not seem to find enough suitable candidates for state legislature. Even utterly suitable candidates do seem to be able to raise plenty of campaign funds. Perhaps I am reading the state fundraising wrong and the money is attached with conditions of inclusions, preclusions and exclusions.
Even most of the narrative of New Jersey seems to take it for granted that State is a liberal state and is Democrat dominated. Seriously some people need to look at the actual data and not some storyteller spin of it. Simply need to count kinds of laws passed (republicans), kinds of state programmes (republican initiated). However the social side of laws and programmes do have Democratic Party alignment. So that is some good thing. A lot of party and philosophy work is still needed to bring the state into a bit more permanent Democratic fold. I was going to say California and New York, but again like all elections and all things, every seat matters and California and New York have also quite happily elected plenty Republicans and enacted some seriously oppressive laws.
For liberals and progressivist, the fight does not and should not end with just a capture of one seat in one election. Party tendency towards contentment is seriously hampering elections.
Voting Access: The laws in New Jersey make it a lot easier to participate in elections. Voting laws are very inclusive in terms of language explicitly including and clauses explicitly making provisions for groups that would, in other states, be disenfranchised. Decent early voting in person time windows with late evening openings, inclusive and easy absentee voting by mail provisions, explicitly declared ease of voting registration makes the state very open. The state has minimal hurdles when it comes to voting. While this should normally result in very high level of voter turnout.
Semi-Open Primary: The process is a semi open primary. Voting in primary is open to all Democrats and unaffiliated voters. Participation numbers unlikely to change. This will be a big bonus for Clinton as core electorate in primary is registered Democrat.
Early/Absentee/mail Voting: Turnout will be higher as there are ample provisions and support for early/absentee voting in person and Mail voting. Whoever can get their supporters into vote early will have an upper hand. Once again this usually means Clinton advantages due to a organizational advantages.
There are many other factors including things like expensive media market and plenty more, however there are enough diaries with those stories. And my apologies, I have been a bit pressed thus did not have enough time before the primary to include other usual district stuff and other important considerations.
At the risk of upsetting people in New Jersey, I expect New Jersey to reflects results similar to its bordering areas with New York.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
For those you want an inkling about what to expect for those first footsteps into political ladder, here from Kossack Chris Reeves whole series at Nuts and Bolts/history about what and how to run for state legislature.