Recent polls, including today, show good news for Hillary against both Bernie and “The Donald”.
Let’s look at it from a couple perspectives here:
1. Bernie vs. Hillary
It is quite obvious that there is no realistic way for Bernie to catch Hillary when it comes to winning the most pledged delegates, and on top of that the final 9 contests don’t harbor a lot of “feel good” prospects for Bernie with CA, NJ, NM, VI, PR and DC likely going to Hillary while Bernie having to make do with consolation prizes MT, ND and SD.
Bernie was going to argue to Super Delegates that the will of the voters should be overturned and Super Delegates should switch to him and make him the nominee instead based on a few points, prominent among them that Bernie was steadily rising in national polls and was getting close to being the preferred candidate for Democrats nationally. That narrative has taken some very big hits and is no longer a viable argument, in fact, the opposite is true. Bernie’s national numbers are falling apart, Hillary is rising strongly.
6-1-2016 Quinnipiac poll: Hillary 53% to BERNIE 39%
The bottom looks to be falling out from underneath Bernie in national polling. Quinnipiac, QUINNIPIAC, the most Hillary-skeptical poll of them all (outside of GOP shill Rasmussen), now shows Hillary leading Bernie nationally by 14%.
Combined with the most recent ABC/WaPo poll, which also shows a 14% race, and the double-digit lead Hillary now shows over Bernie in the aggegates of both RealClearPolitics and Pollster.com, and there goes Bernie’s argument on national polls, or any kind of national poll tightening.
The latest Quinnipiac poll out today shows Hillary ahead of Bernie 53% to 39%, a 14% lead.
Link:
BATTLE OF THE SEXES LEAVES CLINTON WITH EDGE OVER TRUMP, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; SHE LEADS ON BRAINS, MORALS, BUT HE’S UP ON LEADERSHIP
From the poll questionnaire:
1. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) Who would you like to see win the Democratic nomination for president this year: Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Topline: Hillary 53%, Bernie 39%
Crosstabs: With men: Hillary 55%, Bernie 39%
With women: Hillary 51% Bernie 40%
College Degree: Hillary 53% Bernie 42%
No College Degree: Hillary 53% Bernie 37%
Hillary does very well with men here. Also, while Hillary gets the same support from those with and without college degree, Bernie’s support drops by 5% with those who don’t have a college degree.
2. (If Democrat or Democrat leaner) How would you feel with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee for president: proud, satisfied, dissatisfied or embarrassed?
Proud: 27%
Satisfied: 53%
Dissatisfied: 13%
Embarrassed: 6%
So, a full 80% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents feel either proud or satisfied if Hillary is the nominee. 19% would have feelings of dissatisfaction or embarrassment.
The same question posed about Bernie:
3. (If Democrat or Democrat leaner) How would you feel with Bernie Sanders as the Democratic nominee for president: proud, satisfied, dissatisfied or embarrassed?
Proud: 32%
Satisfied: 37%
Dissatisfied: 22%
Embarrassed: 6%
DK/NA: 4%
With Bernie 69% of Democrats or Democratic leaners would be either proud or satisfied, while 28% would be dissatisfied or embarrassed, and another 4% are unsure here.
Here we have a situation where 80% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners express either satisfaction or pride with Hillary as our nominee, while 69% say the same about a Bernie nomination. 19% of respondents express dissatisfaction or embarrassment with Hillary as the nominee, while 28% say the same about a Bernie nomination, and another 4% are undecided on that question.
As for the overall national picture, we see Hillary’s numbers go up while Bernie’s are steadily going down, leading to the situation that Hillary now leads Bernie by double digits in the aggregate of all national polls
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Latest poll graph:
It is irrefutable. Hillary is rising strongly in the polls, Bernie’s support looks to be falling apart. Bernie must turn these national numbers around very fast, and dramatically, if he wants to argue to the Super Delegates that he is the more popular candidate with the party. The current numbers suggest that the strongly favored candidate with Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents is Hillary.
Analysis Hillary vs. Bernie, national polling:
Combined with the most recent ABC/WaPo poll, which also shows a 14% race, and the double-digit lead Hillary now shows over Bernie in the aggregates of both RealClearPolitics and Pollster.com, and there goes Bernie’s argument on national polls, or any kind of national poll tightening. One of his biggest arguments to Super Delegates, that he is doing “better” against Hillary in national polling, has completely falling by the wayside.
That leaves him now only with one argument, that he is doing better against Trump than Hillary, which is problematic as the argument has multiple rebuttals:
1. Bernie hasn’t been put through the GOP wringer yet
2. Once Bernie is out of the race many of his supporters will become Hillary supporters, giving Hillary a good poll lift against Trump
3. Hillary is actually ahead of Trump in basically every poll, even that “devastating” GOP Rasmussen poll turned from +5% Trump to +1% Hillary in just one week as Trump’s temporary poll bounce (post Cruz) has been receding.
To that end, let’s look at the other end of the equation
2. Hillary vs. Trump
The Q poll shows Hillary leading Trump by 4%. 45% to 41%.
“This is a very tight race that will divide Democrats and Republicans, the young and the old, white, black and Hispanic voters – and husbands and wives – in the months ahead,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
But a closer look reveals that Hillary is in the driver’s seat. As women make up between 53% to 56% of a general election, Hillary’s advantage with women over Trump, compared with Trump’s advantage among men, looms large.
From the questionnaire:
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Hillary 45% Trump 41%
Interesting info from the crosstabs:
54% of Women choose Hillary
30% of Women choose Trump
while
51% of Men choose Trump
35% of Men choose Hillary
As mentioned, more women vote than men, so you want to be in Hillary’s position of strength with women.
Also, interesting, the age breakdown:
18-34 yrs. of age: Hillary 48% Trump 32%
35-49 yrs. of age: Hillary 48% Trump 37%
50-64 yrs. of age: Hillary 41% Trump 47%
65 and older: Hillary 44% Trump 45%
Millenials are Hillary’s strongest age group, she wins them by 16%. Trump is strongest in the 50 to 64 age group.
American voters say
56 – 35 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president than Trump;
51 – 37 percent that she is more intelligent
47 – 36 percent that she has higher moral standards.
But voters say 44 – 39 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy;
49 – 45 percent that he is a stronger leader
48 – 39 percent that he is more inspiring.
Voters say 47 – 39 percent that they would rather invite Trump to a backyard barbecue,
47 – 41 percent that they would turn to Clinton during a personal crisis.
Q analysis:
“Trump may be the guy voters want flipping burgers in the backyard and flipping companies in the board room, but when it comes to making deals in DC and stepping up to confront an international crisis, voters want Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office,” Malloy said.
“Voters want Hillary Clinton in the Oval office.” I like the sound of that.
As for the overall polling picture Hillary vs. Trump, there WAS a polling bounce Trump received when Cruz and Kasich decided to bow out of the GOP race, but that appears to be receding now. Illustrative here is that oft cited Rasmussen poll, that actually showed Trump ahead by 5% on 5/19. That led to a lot of hand wringing in the media. However, a week later that same pollster (a GOP pollster) showed Hillary leading by 1%, a 6% turnaround in numbers for Hillary in just 1 week.
Polls are showing Hillary winning again with growing numbers, and once the Democratic race is decided expect a very good polling bounce to come Hillary’s way, putting more distance between herself and Trump again.