When Republican efforts to pressure Florida Sen. Marco Rubio into running for a second term began to heat up about a week ago, we cataloged all the reasons why he might (or ought to) be deaf to those entreaties. But the biggest of all is that despite all the people whispering in Rubio's ear that he's the strongest candidate the GOP has to offer, he could still very well lose—and shatter any presidential ambitions he may yet harbor.
And now we have some new evidence that backs up this notion, in the form of a poll from Public Policy Polling that finds Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy edging out Rubio by a 44-43 margin. The last time PPP tested this matchup came back in September, when Rubio led 46-40. But since then, Rubio's approval rating has collapsed, sinking from an already mediocre 41-44 to an abysmal 32-54, making him one of the least popular senators in the nation. Just 39 percent of voters say they want him to run for re-election, compared to 51 percent who don't. A craptacular presidential bid will do that to you.
What makes Rubio's showing even more troubling for him—aside from the fact that he's in the low 40s, a place no incumbent ever wants to be—is that Murphy's still largely unknown, with just a 20-18 favorability rating. Murphy's Democratic primary rival, fellow Rep. Alan Grayson, is better known, but he's less popular, sporting 22-26 favorables. Perhaps as a consequence, Grayson performs considerably less well in a head-to-head matchup, losing to Rubio 43-38.
The same pattern repeats itself when the two Democrats are pitted against the Republicans who are actually running. Murphy leads wealthy businessman Carlos Beruff 43-31 and Rep. David Jolly 44-29. Grayson, by contrast, is up 41-32 on Beruff and just 40-33 on Jolly. (PPP did not test the other three notable GOP candidates, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, Rep. Ron DeSantis, and businessman Todd Wilcox.)
Facing numbers like these, Rubio's going to have to think long and hard whether he wants to put his future political career at risk. But not too long, though: As Rubio has delighted in reminding us, the filing deadline is June 24. Will he do a solid for his party? Or will he continue to look out for number one? Knowing Rubio, the GOP shouldn't expect him to suddenly turn into a team player.