The Courts have managed to un-gerrymander districts in three states last year: Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina. This, along with the uptick in Democratic voters for 2016—and the repulsiveness of the GOP’s top candidate—means that the Democrats are poised to make significant inroads to getting a majority in the House of Representatives. Florida alone now has over 10 competitive races.
Virginia doesn’t have quite as many, but we will make gains in the Commonwealth.
Just last month, the U.S. Supreme Court unanimously rejected the lawsuit brought by three VA GOP congressman incumbents who sued to keep their gerrymandered districts in Virginia: Randy Forbes, Rob Wittman and Dave Brat. Gerrymandering and voter suppression seem to be the Republican mantle these days. Although nothing could be more profoundly undemocratic and un-American, I guess if your cushy government job is on the line, it's no holds barred. Only a Republican would think to sue to unfairly keep a seat rather than trying to win an election fairly.
Republicans tried to cram all of the minority voters in District 3 so they could “bleach" the surrounding districts of 1, 2, 4, and 7. Currently, all of those are represented by Republicans.
I'll go through which ones are most likely to flip, the toss ups, and those that will require more effort. If you want real change this November, we have to change the make-up of Congress.
Most likely to flip Democratic: District 4
The GOP incumbent, Randy Forbes, is furious. He has had this district in a stranglehold for 15 years. Now, with fairly drawn lines, he didn’t even bother to run in his own district.
With no more wild zigzags, and with Petersburg and Richmond added to this district, it is now a likely Democratic pickup. With a competitive race and 15 years of doing nothing for the people in his district, incumbent Randy Forbes decided to ditch District 4 and tried to run for office in the redder District 2. (HA HA—despite establishment backing, he even lost that primary to a perennial candidate. Career: over)
State sen. A. Donald McEachin from Henrico is our primary candidate for this seat, and polling shows he is favored to win over the GOP candidate, Mike Wade.
Toss Up: District 10—this is the big one, folks
This is the one we really need to fight for. The district is currently represented by the ethically challenged Barbara Comstock, a GOP freshman who won in the red wave of 2014 and is desperately trying to hold onto her job. She is in the common pickle for many vulnerable GOP House candidates of being in a bluer district in a bluer election, but still trying to have it both ways with Donald Trump.
She has refused to condemn his overtly racist remarks, and tries to dodge questions about him. She is giving that tired line that she is “watching" for him to pivot to become suddenly non-racist for the general election. This obviously does not sit well with the district’s growing number of Latino and Asian immigrants. She also joins Trump in his opposition to equal-pay legislation, healthcare reform, immigration reform and abortion rights.
Despite this, given her name recognition and the fact that the Kochs are likely going to be pouring money into this race, she has the slightest of edges as it currently stands. Luckily, Team Blue has a strong candidate in LuAnn Bennett, who has built a very successful business despite having to raise her children alone after she lost her husband to cancer. She is a tough lady who shares very progressive values and would better represent the district. It really shouldn't even be this close, but the GOP is going to pull out all stops to keep this district in their grubby hands. Don't let them.
Will require some effort: District 2
Shaun Brown might be the first African-American Congresswoman from the Commonwealth. She is running for an open seat in an R+2 district with the incumbent, GOPer Scott Rigell, retiring and the establishment favorite, Randy Forbes, having failed to win his primary.
Will require some effort: District 5
With the incumbent, GOPer Robert Hurt, retiring, the Cook report changed the status of this race to more competitive for the Democrats. This seat was ours until the Tea Party wave of 2010. The Dem candidate, Jane Dittmar, is highly experienced and a prodigious fundraiser. She stands the best chance to retake the seat this election year.
Will require some real effort: District 7
The 7th District stretched from the Richmond suburbs to Spotsylvania and Culpeper counties. It was over 75 percent white and 15 percent black. It is now around 70 percent white and 20 percent black. It has become less red but is still fairly comfortable for the incumbent. However, while the new 7th district leans GOP, Brat lost a key base of his support with the redistricting: Hanover County. He also lost New Kent County to the 1st District. On the other hand, the 7th picked up Powhatan, Amelia and Nottoway counties from the old 4th district. If the blue wave is big enough, there is a chance.
Eileen Bedell is the Democratic candidate in this race. She is a longtime lawyer with a track record of fighting for individuals and small businesses. She has a lot of grassroots support, including here at DKos. Her opponent is Dave Brat, the guy who won the upset against Eric Cantor. He is about as rightwing nutty as they come. He strongly supports oppression of LGBT and opposes women's rights, and has stated that ISIS has set up a base in Texas—which must be true becaue he read about it on the interwebs.
Conclusion:
This is shaping up to be a very good election for us. I have linked the names to the candidate’s website, so volunteer, canvas, donate. Before I moved to Florida, I grew up in Williamsburg, Virginia. I have watched that very red state become a beautiful shade of blue, but I wouldn’t mind making it bluer. H/T to Ballotpedia, Turn VA Blue, and www.90for90.org
Thursday, Jun 23, 2016 · 10:47:39 PM +00:00
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SemDem
ht wvmd: In case you didn’t know this, Virginia allows a tax credit of up to 50 dollars for donations to in-state political candidates (not national candidates) calculated at 50 percent of the donation amount. That means if you donate 100 dollars to, say, LuAnn Bennett, you will get 50 dollars of that back as a tax credit on your next year’s Virginia income tax. A tax credit is better than a deduction. It is a dollar for dollar reduction of your tax liability. So be sure to take advantage of this by donating at least 100 dollars to Virginia candidates.