Bill McKibben, noted environmental activist, has a post up in politico where he appears to be stirring the pot for Bernie Sanders again.
The Clinton Campaign Is Obstructing Change to the Democratic Platform
As one of Bernie’s delegates, I’m disappointed so far. But we’re still fighting hard.
By Bill McKibben
June 27, 2016
The Clinton campaign was ready to acknowledge serious problems: We need fair trade policy, inequality is a horrible problem, and unchecked climate change will wreck the planet. But when it came to specific policy changes, they often balked. Amendments against the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement and backing Medicare for all failed, with all the Clinton delegates voting against.
At which point we got (about 11 p.m., in a half-deserted hotel ballroom) to the climate section of the platform, and that’s where things got particularly obvious. We all agreed that America should be operating on 100 percent clean energy by 2050, but then I proposed, in one amendment after another, a series of ways we might actually get there. A carbon tax? Voted down 7-6 (one of the DNC delegates voted with each side). A ban on fracking? Voted down 7-6. An effort to keep fossils in the ground, at least on federal land? Voted down 7-6. A measure to mandate that federal agencies weigh the climate impact of their decisions? Voted down 7-6. Even a plan to keep fossil fuel companies from taking private land by eminent domain, voted down 7-6. (We did, however, reach unanimous consent on more bike paths!)
So let us consider this
“A ban on fracking”.
I seem to recall this being an issue during the primaries. I also seem to recall that one candidate took an absolute position on this.. and lost. Apparently, that was not enough. And we are now relitigating the primaries. So let us consider the ban on fracking.
A ban on fracking has only one short term effect: an increase in gas prices in the short term. And it will have zero long term effect. Zero.
Let us break this down. A ban on fracking results in reduced gasoline supplies ~ at least in the short term. But gasoline consumption is not price elastic in the short term ~ you still need to drive to work, and you will drive to work with the car you have (as opposed to taking the public transportation that you dont have, or buying a tesla with money that you also dont have). So you ban fracking, but there is a negligible short term reduction in gasoline consumption.
In the long run, gasoline consumption is somewhat price elastic. A 10% increase in gasoline consumption is said to result in a 7% reduction in consumption. So, if you ban fracking today, then in about 10 years, you may have a reduced gasoline consumption… by an amount that is difficult to predict.
Because the long run is going to be dominated by electric cars. Electric cars are cheaper to operate (the cost of fuel is 1/3 that of gasoline cars, and maintenance costs are almost zero) than gasoline cars. The only thing holding back electric cars today is driving range, combined with range anxiety in consumers. Both of those are fixable issues. And as they get fixed, gasoline consumption (and thus demand and prices) will plummet.
So, the long run (ie, 2020 onwards) is going to be dominated by electric cars. Whether you ban fracking today will have no effect on that. ZERO.
Yesterday, on the first episode of Bloomberg’s new animated series Sooner Than You Think, we calculated the effect of continued 60 percent growth. We found that electric vehicles could displace oil demand of 2 million barrels a day as early as 2023. That would create a glut of oil equivalent to what triggered the 2014 oil crisis.
And here is the chart that accompanied that article.
So, bottomline: If EV sales growth continues on the present trajectory, then oil consumption (and prices) will crash by 2024… before Hillary Clinton leaves office.
And if she can do anything to speed up that process, then gasoline consumption (and thus demand) will crash well before that.
That is what we should be fighting for. A complete, or partial, ban on fracking will have ZERO effect on that dynamic.
Bill McKibben is likely smart enough to know all this. He is playing for the galleries.
If we care about saving the planet, then we should be focused on increasing the adoption of electric cars. There are quite a few things we can do, as individuals, to enable that. There are also quite a few things we can ask our politicians to do.