For millions of years, the Adélie penguins have lived all over Antarctica. As the climate has changed, so has the distribution of the penguin breeding habitats. Unfortunately, historically and geologically speaking, warming climate conditions have not been good to penguin populations.
In a paper published today (June 29) in Scientific Reports, the researchers project that approximately 30 percent of current Adélie colonies may be in decline by 2060 and approximately 60 percent may be in decline by 2099.
"It is only in recent decades that we know Adélie penguins population declines are associated with warming, which suggests that many regions of Antarctica have warmed too much and that further warming is no longer positive for the species," said the paper's lead author Megan Cimino, who earned her doctoral degree at UD in May.
[My emphasis]
Not all is lost, as researchers hold out a glimmer of hope that there may still be “refugia,” post 2099.
By contrast, the study also suggests several refugia -- areas of relatively unaltered climate -- may exist in continental Antarctica beyond 2099, which would buffer a species-wide decline. Understanding how these refugia operate is critical to understanding the future of this species.
"The Cape Adare region of the Ross Sea is home to the earliest known penguin occupation and has the largest known Adélie penguin rookery in the world. Though the climate there is expected to warm a bit, it looks like it could be a refugia in the future, and if you look back over geologic time it was likely a refuge in the past," Cimino said.
We are all vulnerable to the changes that will be brought about with our Earth’s climate changing, even if some life is more vulnerable sooner.