which was originally posted as a comment on one of the other diaries. Just thought I would give this content a bit more visibility for people to consider:
Every single state Obama won in 2012 538 has as at least D+5, and at least a 68.3% chance of Clinton winning. That fits the notion that Trump has not yet made a dent in that base of 332 electoral votes. He would have to swing several big states totaling at lest 62 electoral votes without losing either NC or AZ to get a tie.
So let’s look at the bigger states won by Obama considered to be “competitive”
State EVS D+ %
FL 29 6 73.7
PA 20 8 81.3
OH 18 5 70.8
MI 16 12 90.7
VA 13 7 78.6
If that does not change significantly, there is absolutely no path for Trump.
Consider that even were he to win FL OH and VA, he would net only 60 and still be short. He would need to win at least one other state.
Yes, we have not even had the conventions yet, but where is Trump’s path?