On behalf of the group Women's Voices, Women Vote, Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has a bunch of new data on nine different swing states, most of which also include Senate matchups. Some of the results, though, are kinda odd. Below, we've compared the net margin for both the presidential and Senate matchups with the averages in each race from Huffington Post Pollster, where available:
State |
Clinton Margin |
Pollster Avg. |
Senate (D) Margin |
Pollster Avg. |
AZ |
-6 |
1 |
-2 |
-5 |
NC |
10 |
0 |
2 |
-4 |
NH |
0 |
5 |
1 |
-2 |
NV |
0 |
n/a |
-5 |
n/a |
OH |
0 |
4 |
3 |
-4 |
PA |
9 |
5 |
-8 |
-4 |
WI |
12 |
9 |
1 |
11 |
As you can see, the numbers are a bit all over the place. Compared to the polling averages, GQR is bearish on Hillary Clinton in three states and bullish in three others, particularly their wildly optimistic read in North Carolina. As a consequence, GQR is the first pollster anywhere to find Democrat Deborah Ross beating GOP Sen. Richard Burr in the Tarheel State.
Most of the rest of their Senate tests are likewise pretty positive for Democrats, but some don't make much sense. For instance, they give Clinton a much bigger-than-normal 9-point lead in Pennsylvania but at the same time they have Democrat Katie McGinty trailing Republican Sen. Pat Toomey by a larger-than-average 8-point deficit. It's hard to square those two things. Same with Wisconsin, where Clinton is up a hefty 12 points but somehow Democrat Russ Feingold only edges GOP Sen. Ron Johnson by 1 point; no one else has ever seen the race that close.
GQR did provide the first Nevada polling we've seen from a company not named Gravis in almost a year. In fact, these are the first presidential numbers whatsoever out of the Silver State since a PPP poll from July of last year that put Clinton up 48-42 on Donald Trump. (Gravis only ever tested the Senate race.) GQR's 44-all tie seems awfully pessimistic for Democrats, especially when you consider a recent DCCC poll of the state's swingy 3rd Congressional District that put Clinton up 43-35—numbers Republicans didn't try to dispute. Republican Rep. Joe Heck's 46-41 lead on former Democratic state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto is therefore likely overstated as well; a year ago, for what it's worth, PPP found Cortez Masto ahead 42-41.