So historically, modern-era conventions have given their candidates a modest bump, in the 2 to 3-point range. It’s all temporary given all the dynamics in play (parties coming together, supporters coming to grips with the eventual winner, conventions adding to the noise, people not fully paying attention, etc.) and after all the conventions are over, the real picture starts to emerge. But, having seen last night’s train wreck of an opening night, followed by today’s plagiarism story, it’s easy to wonder whether Donald Trump will see any benefits from his convention. Let’s see where things currently stand, so we can check in a week from now and see how numbers moved. (“C” is Clinton, “T” is Trump.)
2016 BATTLEGROUND PRESIDENTIAL MATCHUPS
|
7/19 |
6/30 |
6/10 |
5/12 |
US |
C+3 |
C+7 |
C+4.6 |
C+3.6 |
AZ (11) |
Tied |
C+1 |
C+1 |
C+3.5 |
CO (9) |
C+5 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
FL (29) |
C+2 |
C+6 |
C+1.6 |
C+4.3 |
GA (16) |
T+4 |
T+3 |
T+4.2 |
T+5 |
IA (6) |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
MI (16) |
C+6 |
C+8 |
C+8.3 |
C+10.5 |
MO (10) |
T+6 |
T+3 |
T+5 |
T+7 |
NM (5) |
N/a |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
NC (15) |
C+4 |
TIED |
T+1 |
C+3.3 |
NV (6) |
n/a |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
NH (4) |
C+4 |
C+6 |
C+6.5 |
C+9.8 |
OH (18) |
C+2 |
C+3 |
C+1.4 |
C+3 |
PA (20) |
C+3 |
C+4.4 |
C+4 |
C+7 |
VA (13) |
C+5 |
C+3.2 |
C+4.3 |
C+13 |
WI (10) |
C+9 |
C+9.5 |
C+11.6 |
C+11.5 |
Campaign Action
All in all, we generally see a very stable several months, with Hillary Clinton sporting real, if unspectacular, leads in almost every state that matters despite seeing her post-locking-up-the-nomination boost dissipating. She doesn’t trail in any Obama states and leads in North Carolina, a 2012 red state. Red states Georgia and Missouri are within reach.
Remember, the state polling is based on a relatively small number of polls, so much of the movement is significantly impacted by single polls—and even then, the movement has been slight.
Now, that 44-41 national topline points to a major factor at play—both candidates remain unpopular.
Trump’s national 41 percent clocks in higher than his numbers in most battleground states, were he exceeds that mark in just TWO states—Georgia and Missouri—two states that shouldn’t even be considered “battlegrounds.” How pathetic is that?
So the question is, who has the better chance of punching through their low numbers: Trump and his high 30s, or Clinton and her low 40s? You all know my position—I don’t see how Trump gets to 50 percent in the key battleground states. It would require a double-digit increase in support. How will he manage that? We’re talking about Trump here, a guy more interested in settling old scores than in finding new supporters.
Clinton’s path is much easier, and her potential source of votes much larger given presidential year turnout.
But for now, the immediate question is what this shit show of a convention does to Trump’s numbers in the short term. Conventions always provide boosts! But maybe this time it doesn’t.