Redistricting has always been an interest of mine. I believe it is my combined love of both geography and politics that captures my attention when these two worlds collide. However, I feel like 90% of American voters are unfamiliar with the use of gerrymandering by both political parties. Gerrymandering is the art of manipulating the boundaries of an electoral constituency to favor one party over the other. During the 2010 Republican wave, Republicans gained control of state legislatures across the nation. Being as the state legislature draws new congressional maps every decade, Republicans went in with a clear advantage and decided to shore up most of their seats and make it nearly impossible for Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives. This is why even though Democrats won over a million more votes in 2012 than Republicans, they were still in a 234-201 seat deficit. Democrats are not innocent in this game either, and many of them have even sacrificed their own party’s progress to instead ensure their protection in heavily-packed Democratic districts. Gerrymandering has existed since our inception as a country, but it is our duty as citizens to say no more. I am starting my new series called “Redrawing America” where I will be redrawing every state using Dave’s Redistricting App. I will be doing this by regions, and have decided to do the Carolinas and Georgia first. I will be using 2008 election data as Dave’s doesn’t calculate 2012 data, but the maps should still stay fairly similar as far as which party carried them.
To give you an idea of how I go through this process, I take all of these factors into consideration:
1. Ignore partisanship
2. Avoid, if possible, splitting counties and municipalities
3. Consider areas with the same culture or economic class
4. Compactness is key.
5. Make majority-minority districts complacent with the VRA when possible.
Head below the fold where I will begin.
Georgia: Georgia has 13 congressional districts that are heavily gerrymandered by packing African American voters into as few districts as possible. Even though President Obama got an impressive 47% of the vote here against John McCain, Republicans outnumber Democrats 9-4, with no opportunities for either party to gain a seat. This new map gives Republicans an 8-5 edge, but with several swing districts in the mix that could go either way.
1st District- Augusta, Savannah, Statesboro (Dark Blue)
The old version of this seat consisted of Democratic-leaning Savannah, but then various conservative, rural counties were placed in this district that made it safely red. My version of this seat is entirely different. The district stretches from Augusta to Savannah, and also includes Statesboro. The inclusion of Augusta puts this seat back in Democratic hands. This seat is only 50% white, with African Americans making up 40% of the population. This seat went for Obama 54-45, and would likely elect a moderate Democrat, such as former Congressman John Barrow. If a Republican wave occurs in a low turnout election, this seat has the potential to flip, but in neutral and good Democratic years it is safely blue.
2nd District- Brunswick, Valdosta (Lime Green)
The old version of this seat stretches from south to central Georgia, but my version of this seat keeps it in southern Georgia. The two most notable cities are Brunswick and Valdosta, but this district almost entirely encompasses small, rural counties. Because of this, it is no surprise McCain beat Obama here 64-35. The district has a black population of 26%, but that doesn’t seem to be enough to help Team Blue here. This seat is safely red even under a wave.
3rd District- Albany, Columbus, Macon (Hot Pink)
The aren’t many changes that need to be done to this Democratic-leaning district, although I did include Bibb County (Macon) in its entirety. This seat contains the Democratic-leaning cities of Albany, Columbus, and Macon, along with many rural counties. The black population in this district is 47% compared to 45% for whites, making it a majority minority district by a small margin. The Democratic primary, however, is heavily African American which would result in the likely election of a black Democrat to Congress. This seat only voted for Obama 54-45, but it is actually trending away from Republicans as its diverse population grows, meaning they likely won’t be able to compete here anytime soon. This seat has potential to fall in a wave, but Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop has managed to hold on despite representing the similar version of this seat in the 2010 and 2014 Republican waves.
4th District- Augusta Suburbs, Warner Robins (Light Blue)
The old version of this seat placed Augusta with many conservative counties to dilute the city’s influence. Since Augusta was moved to the 1st, conservative Warner Robins was put in its place. The blood red Augusta suburbs also keep this seat out of reach for Democrats. Even under the best conditions for Democrats, this seat is safely red as McCain carried it 61-38.
5th District- Carrollton, Griffin, LaGrange (Gray)
This district is located in the blood red counties south of Atlanta. It hasn’t changed much except I added Carrollton to avoid county splitting Henry County. This district also includes the conservative cities of Griffin, LaGrange, and Peachtree City. It went for McCain 66-32 and is safely red.
6th District- Covington, Lithonia, McDonough (Salmon)
This is a majority minority district in the Atlanta suburbs that covers Clayton, Henry, and Rockdale counties and pieces of DeKalb and Newton counties. This seat is mainly different because it includes Henry County in its entirety. The county splitting of DeKalb and Newton was necessary to balance out the rest of the population of the Atlanta suburbs, but all municipalities remain intact. It is 58% African American compared to just 28% white, and will most certainly elect an African American to Congress. The district went for Obama 68-31, and is safely Democratic.
7th District- Gwinnett County (Purple)
This district encompasses almost the entirety of Gwinnett County in the Atlanta suburbs, and includes the cities of Dacula and Lawrenceville. The old map split Gwinnett’s Democratic precincts into various other districts, but this version keeps them all together. Because of this, the district is now more competitive. McCain won here 54-46, but Democrats could win this seat in a wave year with a good candidate. State Senator Curt Thompson would likely be the best option for Democrats here, but there are other state legislators who represent portions of the district. But, the swing seat giveth and the swing seat taketh away. This would be a hard hold for Democrats in a Republican wave years, but at least it is a seat on the big board that wasn’t previously there for them.
8th District- Alpharetta, Sandy Springs (Dark Green)
This seat consists of the heavily white and swingy northern Atlanta. It includes the cities of Alpharetta, Dunwoody, Roswell, and Sandy Springs. The old version of this seat takes in conservative suburbs in the west that makes it unnecessarily Republican, but this seat is entirely made up of just North Atlanta. The district went for Obama 51-48, and is competitive for both parties down the ballot. State Representatives Scott Holcomb or Taylor Bennett would likely be good fits for Democrats here as both have experience winning in competitive turf.
9th District- Douglasville, Marietta, Kennesaw, Smyrna (Slate Blue)
This district covers more heavily white and swingy Atlanta suburbs, but this time they come from Cobb County. It contains a majority of Cobb County and Douglas County including the cities of Douglasville, Marietta, Kennesaw, and Smyrna. The old district split Democratic precincts in Cobb County in half, giving Republicans a clear advantage. Instead, I kept those precincts together and my county split puts more conservative precincts into a nearby conservative district in the north. The district backed McCain 52-47, meaning Democrats could put this seat in play. There are several Democratic officials who could give it a go, chief among them State Representative David Wilkerson.
10th District- Atlanta, Decatur (Teal)
This is a heavily African American district that contains most of the city of Atlanta and Decatur. The district went for Obama by an insane 90-9 margin. At 70% African American, it will most definitely elect a black Democrat to Congress. Atlanta mayor Kasim Reed would be a likely successor to Rep. John Lewis whenever he decides to retire here. There isn’t much change to this district, although the packing of minority voters from the suburbs into this district finally ends with my new map.
11th District- Northern Atlanta Suburbs (Orange)
This district largely includes the conservative parts of Cobb County along with some blood red smaller counties outside of Atlanta. The district went for McCain by a huge 71-28 margin, and is safely Republican no matter what.
12th District- Athens, Gainesville (Cyan)
For this district, I decided to include Athens in its entirety, drop the conservative Augusta suburbs and opted for the equally conservative city of Gainesville instead. Athens is sadly a dark blue dot in a sea of red and there is no way, in my view, to connect it with other Democratic districts without it clearly being a partisan gerrymander. Athens Democrats are just victims of their own geography. The seat went for McCain 66-36, and is safely red.
13th District- Clayton, Dalton, Rome (Red)
The current map splits the northern Georgia mountains into two separate districts, but I thought including them in their own district looked much nicer. This doesn’t change the political dynamic though. This area is blood red and includes the cities of Clayton, Dalton and Rome. The district went for McCain 74-25, and no Republican should have trouble getting elected here.
Current Map: No competitive districts
My Map: 4 competitive districts (2 R, 2 D)
North Carolina: North Carolina has one of the worst gerrymanders in the country, with Democrats being packed into as few districts as possible. Despite North Carolina’s designation as a swing state, Republicans outnumber Democrats here 10-3, with no competitive districts. My map gives Republicans a 7-6 edge, which is very fair for a state Obama won narrowly in 2008 and narrowly lost in 2012. The map was struck down by the state Supreme Court and was ordered to be redrawn last year, but the changes the legislature made were very minimal in the grand scope of things. The map is still full of areas that need to be fixed, and my map does just that.
1st District- Elizabeth City, Rocky Mount, Wilson (Blue)
The new version of this district includes all of Wilson and a part of Wake County (Raleigh). It also includes the reliably Democratic cities of Elizabeth City and Rocky Mount. The district only went for Obama 54-46, so Republicans have a chance here barring a Republican wave. African Americans make up 36% of the population here, and an even bigger portion of the Democratic primary electorate, so there is a chance multiple white candidates could split the white vote in the Democratic primary and allow an African American to win here. Regardless, this seat should stay blue no matter who in neutral or good Democratic years.
2nd District- Goldsboro, Greenville, Havelock, New Bern (Dark Green)
This district covers the cities of Goldsboro, Greenville, Havelock, and New Bern. The old version of this seat covers almost the entire coast, but this makes things more competitive. Republicans should be able to hold this seat in neutral or good years for them. This district went for McCain just 53-46 and is a potential pickup opportunity for Democrats in a good environment. Greenville mayor Allen Thomas would likely be the best candidate for Democrats here.
3rd District- Jacksonville, Wilmington (Red)
This Wilmington-based coastal seat went for McCain 56-43, and would be a hard seat for Democrats to pickup. Though I suppose in a huge wave it could be in play, but they likely wouldn’t hold it for long. I did some cleanup to this district by removing the areas where it moves inland and added in Jacksonville instead. It should stay safely red in neutral or good years for Republicans.
4th District- Fayetteville, Lumberton (Purple)
This is a swing district that covers the Fayetteville and Lumberton areas. The old version of this seat splits both of those cities, but my version brings them together. The seat went for Obama 53-47, and is competitive for both parties. State Representatives Brad Salmon or Ken Waddell would be good fits for Democrats here. This seat would likely be competitive under any environment as both parties have strong benches here.
5th District- Cary, Raleigh (Teal)
This district contains the city of Cary and a majority of Raleigh. The old version of this seat packs the Democratic precincts of Raleigh with Chapel Hill and Durham, but my version keeps them together. This seat went for Obama 59-40 and is safely Democratic.
6th District- Chapel Hill, Durham (Slate Blue)
This district contains the heavily Democratic cities of Chapel Hill and Durham, along with some small, rural counties on the North Carolina-Virginia border. The old version of this seat packed Democratic precincts with Democratic precincts in Raleigh, but my version separates them. This seat went for Obama 64-35 and is safely Democratic.
7th District- Greensboro, High Point (Gray)
This is a swing district containing the cities of Greensboro and High Point. The old version split Guilford County in half and separated Greensboro from High Point, but my version keeps them together to avoid county splitting. This district went for Obama 52-48, and is likely to be contested by both parties no matter the environment. Greensboro mayor Nancy Vaughn is likely the best choice for Team Blue here.
8th District- Boone, Winston-Salem (Lime Green)
One of the only bright spots of the new court-ordered map was that Winston-Salem was finally made whole and put together with Boone. This looks really compact and just makes sense. Therefore, this district doesn’t change much. It went for McCain 54-45, and could be a pickup opportunity for Democrats in a wave year. Winston-Salem mayor Allen Joines would probably be the best candidate.
9th District- Concord, Kannapolis, Salisbury, Statesville (Hot Pink)
This district takes in some of the Charlotte suburbs along with the cities of Concord, Kannapolis, Salisbury, and Statesville. The old version puts two cities in a separate district, but my version keeps them all together for compactness. McCain won this seat 57-42, and it is likely safe for Team Red unless there is a Democratic Tsunami.
10th District- Asheboro, Rockingham, Sanford (Yellow)
This district is located in the central part of the state and contains the cities of Asheboro, Rockingham, and Sanford. The previous version cuts the district in half to gerrymander Democratic precincts from Fayetteville, but my version keeps them in tact. This seat went for McCain 59-40, and is safely Republican.
11th District- Charlotte (Cyan)
The old version of this seat split Charlotte into two separate districts to dilute African American influence, but my version keeps all of the city together. This seat is 48% white and 32% African American, meaning the Democratic primary could elect either a white or black Democrat depending on how many candidates of the same race are running. This seat went for Obama 63-37 and is safely Democratic.
12th District- Gastonia, Hickory (Light Blue)
The old version of this seat took in Democratic precincts from Asheville to dilute their influence, but my version removes Asheville completely as this is an obvious partisan gerrymander. The new districts contains all of Gastonia and Hickory. The district went for McCain 64-36, and is safely Republican.
13th District- Asheville, North Carolina Mountains (Salmon)
Asheville is a blue dot in a sea of red, and Republicans realized this and decided to split the city into two districts to shut Democrats out of a seat. My version of this district makes Democratic-leaning Asheville whole while still including the very conservative mountain counties. McCain won this district 53-46, but Democrats could pickup this seat in a good year for them. State Senator Terry Van Duyn and State Representative Brian Turner come to mind as good Democrats for this seat.
Current Map: No competitive districts
My Map: 6 competitive districts (3 R, 3 D)
South Carolina: South Carolina Republicans packed as many Democrats as they could into one single district, giving them a 6-1 edge in a state Obama got 46% in with no competitive seats. My map gives Republicans a 5-2 edge, with a swing seat that Democrats could potentially pickup.
1st District- Beaufort, Charleston (Blue)
The previous version of this seat packed Democratic precincts in Charleston with those all the way in Columbia. My version keeps Charleston County whole while also including Beaufort and some small rural counties. This swing district went for Obama 51-48, and both parties will compete here no matter the environment. State Representative Leon Stavrinakis or Charleston mayor John Tecklenburg would be the most likely candidates for Democrats here.
2nd District- Lexington, Orangeburg (Purple)
The old version of this seat put the Columbia suburbs of Lexington with conservative precincts in Columbia’s Richland County. This seat removes the Richland County precincts and adds most of Orangeburg, along with some small, conservative counties. This district went 59-40 for McCain and should stay safely Republican.
3rd District- Anderson, Clemson (Green)
My version of this seat drop the rural counties I added to the 2nd district and picks up some of rural Greenville instead. Other than that, this seat doesn’t change much. This district went for McCain 65-34 and is safely Republican.
4th District- Greenville, Spartanburg (Red)
This seat also doesn’t change much. It includes the conservative cities of Greenville and Spartanburg. McCain carried this seat 60-38 and it should stay safely Republican.
5th District- Rock Hill, Sumter (Gray)
This ancestrally Democratic seat flipped in 2010 after Mick Mulvaney defeated longtime Congressman John Spratt. Republicans then removed Democratic precincts in Sumter during redistricting to make it more conservative. I restored Sumter in its entirety along with the Democratic-leaning city of Rock Hill. I also included many rural counties that are ancestrally Democratic. This district went for McCain 52-47, though the down ballot strength for Democrats here could put them over the top in good Democratic years. Both parties should be able to compete here no matter the scenario. Democratic State Senator Thomas McElveen or Rock Hill mayor Doug Echols would be good candidates here.
6th District- Columbia (Teal)
This district keeps Columbia and its suburbs in their entirety along with a few smaller counties. The district is 48% white and 43% African American, though the Democratic primary will be heavily African American and is likely to send a black Democrat to Congress. Columbia mayor Steve Benjamin seems like a likely candidate, though there are dozens of state legislators who could run here. Obama won this seat 60-39, and it is safely Democratic.
7th District- Florence, Myrtle Beach (Yellow)
This coastal seat that contains Myrtle Beach and Florence doesn’t change too much. It loses some rural counties to the 5th District, but gains most of Berkeley County. This district went for McCain 55-44, so it could flip to Democrats in a wave year but would be extremely difficult for them to hold, therefore Republicans have the edge.
Current Map: No competitive seats
My Map: 2 competitive seats (1 R, 1 D)
Thank you for reading and stay tuned as I continue my mission to redraw America.